What’s At Stake?

IN ITS RHETORICAL HASTE, LAZY POLITICAL PUNDITRY SEES THE upcoming Assembly elections in five states as a ‘semi-final’ before the General Election next year. Never mind that the team losing a semi-final cannot play the final. Such analysis, driven mainly by ideology, remains unaffected by fact and logic. Later, the results would be interpreted to fit the preferred template, irrespec­tive of the numbers on the ground. That’s what had happened in 2019, when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) scored a massive victory barely three months after losing the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. The same trend is seen in the analyses being put forth now.

A victory for Congress in Madhya Pradesh and getting a second consecutive term in Chhat­tisgarh would certainly boost the party’s confidence against BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, as well as its bargaining power within the opposition I.N.D.I.A. grouping. It would also ease Congress’ access to resources, with fund-rich Karnataka already in its bag. Allegations of corruption levelled by BJP and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) against Congress, after an Income Tax Department raid in Karnataka which recovered ₹90 crore, show how the resources of a prosperous state can be useful in funding campaigns and related activities.

BJP is looking to benefit from the anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan. It has recalibrated its strategy in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh by fielding important leaders, including Union ministers, and by showcasing its concern for women after the passage of the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (Women’s Reservation Bill).

In Madhya Pradesh, slashing LPG cylinder prices, higher farm output, and a steady income for farmers have contributed significantly to BJP’s electoral strength over the years. In the last decade of BJP’s governance, wheat production in the state has increased from 178.8 lakh tonnes to 352 lakh tonnes, making it a high-procurement state, including for private players looking to make big purchases of high-quality durum wheat. Madhya Pradesh’s share in wheat export now stands at 46 per cent of the total, edging Punjab out gradually. It is the only state whose agricultural contribution to overall GDP has increased to 40 per cent, against an all-India average of 18.8 per cent. This is a good pitch for BJP to play on.

The elections are going to be fought on state-specific issues. In Rajasthan, anti-incumbency against the 72-year-old Gehlot, along with his longstanding power tussle with Gujjar leader Sachin Pilot, is set to take centrestage. The contest between BJP and Congress here is close, with both parties pitted against anti-incumbency of some kind. Congress is attempting to break the jinx on two consecutive wins by announcing a slew of populist measures. Gehlot is banking on the clutch of welfare measures implemented by his government in a state whose finances are getting increasingly precarious. Paper leaks for competitive examina­tions, the Kota student suicides, a higher rate of crimes against women and the rise of radical Islamic activities, such as what led to the Udaipur beheading of Kanhaiya Lal, are all issues likely to be raised by BJP.

The biggest problem for Congress, however, is Gehlot’s power tussle with Pilot and factionalism within the party. This will give BJP a sharper edge. Bat­tling anti-incumbency of its own against its state leadership, BJP has not named a chief ministerial candidate, not even Vasundhara Raje, but has chosen to bank fully on Narendra Modi’s popularity.

In Chhattisgarh, the key question is whether BJP’s absence from the field for the last five years can be made up for by the last-minute centrally sponsored campaign. In 2018, Congress made big gains with hikes in the minimum support price (MSP) for agricultural produce and by announc­ing loan waivers. That could be a saleable pitch this time, too. Apart from this, the Bhupesh Baghel government announced a ₹2,500 monthly grant for unemployed youth—how much voters appreciate this largesse will be tested on the ground. Among the biggest issues that will be raised by BJP are the alleged ₹2,000 crore liquor scam and the coal extortion scandal involving the chief minister’s deputy secretary.

In Madhya Pradesh, lower LPG cylinder prices, higher farm output, and a steady income for farmers have contributed to BJP’S electoral strength. It is the only state whose agricultural contribution to overall GDP has increased to 40 per cent, against an all-India average of 18.8 per cent

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Punditry, nevertheless, will have none of this. It informs us that the election will test I.N.D.I.A.’s promise of a national repli­cation of the caste enumeration carried out in Bihar. The fact that in the three northern states it’s a direct contest between Congress and BJP, with no opposition alliance leader from another party having any name rec­ognition there, does not matter to pundits.

There seems to be a suspension of disbe­lief in the anxiety to project the caste census as a game-changer. First of all, states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are hardly Mandal terrain. Politics in these states is not conducted along caste lines for several reasons. Second, there is no single dominant Other Backward Class (OBC) like the Yadavs in Bihar or Uttar Pradesh (UP) that can be the vanguard of a Mandal 2.0 revolution. The OBC population in these geographies is split into several castes and sub-castes, with each accounting for only a small share of the demography. Third, there are large numbers of tribals. Because undivided Madhya Pradesh was a very big state, and not densely populated like Bihar and eastern UP, organising political campaigns was not easy except in the urban areas. Thus, even a tall socialist leader like Sharad Yadav had to move to Bihar and contest from Madhepura instead of from his home state.

In Rajasthan, Gehlot hails from the Mali community. It does not even account for 1 per cent of the state’s population. He is the com­munity’s only MLA. It was his long political career and proximity to the Gandhi family that earned him the chief minister’s office. In fact, the caste factor is so fluid in Rajasthan that Vasundhara Raje could be simultaneously projected as a Rajput, by virtue of being Vijaya Raje Scindia’s daughter, and a Jat because of her marriage into the erstwhile royal family of Dholpur. She could also project some affiliation with Gujjars because of her son’s marriage into a Gujjar family. That’s the extent to which caste lines are blurred in the state.

The backdrop to Mandal 1.0 was very different from what’s be­ing called Mandal 2.0 now. Mandal 1.0 had a history, both political and social. In 1989, VP Singh became prime minister after form­ing the Janata Dal by merging the Jan Morcha, Janata Party, Lok Dal and Congress(S), all centrist parties opposed to Rajiv Gandhi.

Singh’s government was formed with outside support from both the Left Front and BJP. Although it was Devi Lal who proposed VP Singh for prime minister by foregoing his own claim, differences between Singh and his deputy Devi Lal erupted soon into open hostility. Devi Lal subsequently announced that he would organise a rally in Dehli’s Boat Club area. A distraught VP Singh lost his nerve. To pre-empt the rally, he struck a deal on the implementation of the Mandal Commission’s report with Ram Vilas Paswan, Lalu Prasad and Sharad Yadav, who were until then prominent members of Devi Lal’s faction. It gave Singh an opportunity to shore up his government by dusting the Socially and Educationally Backward Classes Commission (SEBC) of 1979 and using it to buttress Janata Dal in the Hindi belt by appealing to OBC voters. That was what led to the implementa­tion of the Mandal Commission’s report. The rest is history, with social justice leaders forming their own regional parties and rising to power in states like UP and Bihar.

Battling anti-incumbency against its state leadership, BJP has not named a chief ministerial candidate, not even vasundhara raje. It has chosen to bank on Narendra Modi’s popularity. But the caste factor is so fluid in Rajasthan that she could be simultaneously projected as a Rajput and a Jat

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I.N.D.I.A. has none of this complex political and ideological canvas for its backdrop and, despite two meetings in Patna and Mumbai and several photo-ops, it has failed to clinch a basic agreement on seat-sharing and other key ideological issues, including the caste census. While Congress demurred, it was parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal (United, or JD(U), that brought pressure to bear on the alliance for backing the caste cen­sus. Rahul Gandhi’s own public statements and apparent concern for an OBC quota came forth only recently. Far from drafting a common agenda through consensus, what has been on display from the opposition alliance is rhetoric against Modi, criticism of prominent business houses engaged in the creation of national infrastructure, as well as the blacklisting of select journalists. I.N.D.I.A. has neither sent out a clear message nor does it have a chief messenger. Even as its partners remain un­willing to cede ground to Congress, a section of the ‘durbaris’ have said that the family’s claim to the top post is non-negotiable.

Meaning will be drawn from the last state elec­tions before the General Election. The BJP leadership is inclined to take up seemingly lost causes, prefer­ring not to take any electoral contest lightly. But the real goal of Modi’s party is the Lok Sabha election. This round of state elections will give BJP cues for the road ahead. Before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, and following upsetting results in the state polls earlier, Modi’s Cabinet had approved a 10 per cent reserva­tion in jobs and higher education for economically backward sections in the general category, popu­larly known as the ‘upper-caste quota’. The Modi government had announced another landmark scheme—the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi—before the 2019 polls to provide income support to small and marginal farmers. Un­der this scheme, eligible farmers receive ₹6,000 per year in three equal instalments directly in their bank accounts. PM Kisan has been operational since December 2018. Both moves proved to be game-changers. BJP is already planning for some big decisions ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls which will not be constrained by concerns about the fiscal deficit. Modi is not a leader to indulge in reckless populism of the kind he decried as “revdi culture”. But he is not a leader chained to austerity either.

The terrain of the Lok Sabha election is different from that of state polls—in terms of ideas, a bolder canvas, and grander themes. As Modi prepares to contest for a third term as prime minister, BJP is prepping to showcase his vision to voters across India. That will be the main theme. The building blocks will comprise all his achievements over 10 years. The successful G20 summit in India—an unprecedented diplomatic feat—the launch of Chandrayaan-3, and public praise for Modi’s leadership at home and abroad are examples. There was acknowledgement in foreign capitals that only Modi has the energy and potential to be the champion of the Global South, something he cemented by organising the entry of the African Union into G20 as a per­manent member. Modi insulated the Indian economy from the shocks of the Ukraine war that drove up inflation in Europe. Even Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegation that the In­dian government had a hand in the killing of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil has bounced off Modi and ended up projecting an image of a new India that can take on the toughest diplomatic challenges and come out on top. Reports of terrorists leading cosy lives in Pakistan suddenly getting killed by motorcycle-borne assailants failed to give the Modi government a black eye internationally, as expected by his detractors. Rather, covert allegations levelled at his government have served to shore up his image at home.

The terrain of the Lok Sabha election is different from that of state polls. As Modi prepares to contest for a third term as prime minister, BJP is getting ready to showcase his vision to voters across India. That will be the main theme

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MODI HAS A sound track record as a leader who manages even contradictions to perfection. Among the biggest criticisms from his rivals is his appar­ent failure to improve employment figures. Recent National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) data has reported a decline in India’s unemployment rate in urban areas to 6.6 per cent dur­ing April-June 2023 against 7.6 per cent a year ago. While the unemployment rate was high in April-June 2022, it was mainly due to the staggering impact of Covid-related restrictions, the report said. The 19th Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) noted that the unemployment rate (UR) for persons aged 15 years and above in urban areas was 6.8 per cent in January-March 2023, 7.2 per cent in July-September 2022 as well as October-December 2022. Joblessness among females aged 15 and above in urban ar­eas also declined to 9.1 per cent in April-June 2023 compared to 9.5 per cent a year ago.

Data also shows that another important parameter, the labour force participation rate (LFPR) as per Current Weekly Status (CWS), also stood at a four-quarter high of 48.8 per cent compared to 47.5 per cent in the same quarter of the previous year. The increase in LFPR is perceived to be on account of higher participation of women, considered a certain indicator of labour force health. LFPR was 48.5 per cent in January-March 2023, 48.2 per cent in October-December 2022, and 47.9 per cent in July-September 2022. Analysts are of the view that the private sector has risen from the lows of the pandemic and all economic indicators are by and large good now.

Purchases of discounted oil from Russia have meant that fuel prices were prevented from spiralling uncontrollably even as overall inflation has remained within an acceptable range. Modi’s hands-on approach to ordinary Indians’ household budgets, inasmuch as India’s budget, has kept poverty and hunger out of the country’s consciousness. While political hotspots like Kashmir have registered a significant drop in terrorism, even an ongoing ethnic conflict in Manipur has largely quietened down. Each of these achievements will be used to weave a narrative that sends out a powerful message about India’s growing prowess under Modi’s leadership. Even his worst critics concede this. Modi will remain the firm favourite for 2024. Even a narrow victory for BJP in Madhya Pradesh and a better-than-expected performance in Chhattisgarh will boost that perception.

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PR Ramesh