Modi at Full Throttle

As the campaign for the Maharashtra election wound down, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) poll managers noted the increasingly confident feedback from party cadres complimented by opinion surveys. A tally of 170 seats, even possibly 200, for the Mahayuti (Grand Alliance) of BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party did not seem out of reach. The landslide that buried the INDIA alliance of Congress-Sharad Pawar NCP and Uddhav Sena stopped at 236 seats, a staggering win that marks one of the most dramatic turnarounds in electoral fortunes after the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance registered leads in just 125 of Maharashtra’s 288 assembly constituencies in the Lok Sabha elections in April-May. The result mirrored BJP’s surprise win-from-behind in Haryana in October, but was even more significant given fracturing of Maharashtra’s politics into six parties following the BJP-Sena break-up and bitter fratricidal warfare within the Sena and NCP.

It was apparent to both sides that the presence of six parties in the fray was likely to be confusing for voters. The BJP faced the added disadvantage of a disheartening loss to the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi in the Lok Sabha elections where the Aghadi won 30 to NDA’s 17 seats despite a small difference in vote shares. The Haryana success did revive BJP’s spirits, infusing the belief that Congress’s momentum could be stalled, even reversed. But there was a lot of heavy lifting to do. In the event, the Mahayuti got its act together faster. As Congress state chief Nana Patole later confessed, it took the Aghadi much too long to settle its seat sharing and even when it did, there were crucial weaknesses. For one, it was difficult to shake off the impression that regional Congress leaders had struck corner deals to secure their interests. Mumbai Regional Congress committee chief and Lok Sabha MP Varsha Gaikwad’s sister Jyoti contested and won the Dharavi seat, but questions remained over whether Congress ceded too many seats in Mumbai even as alliance partners NCP Pawar and Uddhav Sena unilaterally announced nominees in constituencies Congress had claimed. Congress’s share of Mumbai’s 36 seats fell to 11 from the 30 it contested in 2019, while Uddhav Sena, despite losing majority MLAs to the rival faction, contested 22, more than it did in 2019 as part of NDA.

Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi did convene a meeting of Maharashtra leaders soon after the Haryana results in October but the required organisational tone up did not happen. Rahul is understood to have expressed his unhappiness on the progress of seat-sharing talks but an assertive intervention that would force state Congress leaders to fall in line and get Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray to accept a viable seat sharing formula did not happen. As a result, Congress contested far fewer seats at 102 than it should have, depriving it of the claim of being the clear leader or the poll spearhead of the Aghadi. The 96 and 86 seats contested by Uddhav Sena and NCP Pawar stretched the two parties too thin. Having lost more than half of their legislators to the Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions, the original parties did not have the firepower to contest so many seats. BJP strategists on the other hand understood the need to project a “leader” in a muddled electoral scenario where multiple parties were in the fray. For the NDA BJP with 152 seats was the undisputed leader of the alliance though the choice of chief minister was kept open with deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis noting that seats alone may not be the sole consideration. When the campaign picked pace, BJP focussed on Congress, criticising the party for espousing sectional causes and painting the Aghadi as an inchoate mix of petty interests lacking a vision for the future.

BJP strategists understood the need to project a clear ‘leader’ in a muddled electoral scenario. For NDA it was BJP that was the leader of the alliance although the choice of chief minister was kept open with deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis noting that seats alone would not decide the matter

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BJP’s upper hand in the campaign was the consequence of detailed constituency and booth-level planning that began soon after the inaugural session of the new Lok Sabha in July. Party managers interacted with the state leadership as well several party morchas (front organisations) representing farmers, scheduled and tribal castes, other backward classes (OBCs), labour, linguistic group, jhopadpatti (slums), artisans and women. The feedback was parsed to identify pain points that hurt the NDA in the Lok Sabha elections such as the price of Soyabean and unhappiness over export curbs on onions. In rural areas where such discontent was expected to hurt BJP, the results disproved predictions. BJP won the Latur rural seat with the party nominee defeating the late Congress veteran Vilasrao Deshmukh’s son Dhiraj. Though Dhiraj’s brother Amit won the Latur city seat, the difference in both cases was narrow. In Vidarbha, where farmer as well as Dalit anger was seen as an issue, BJP did exceptionally well. The Aghadi’s struggles were encapsulated by Patole eking out a 208-vote win at Sakoli. The Centre’s decision in mid-November to allow permissible moisture content for procurement of Soyabean crop to be raised from 12% to 15% as a one-time measure, was a stitch in time that delivered results in Vidarbha and Marathwada. “The booth-level planning and the total involvement of all party organisations was an important part of the party’s approach to the election. This meant the entire state BJP was working for a common goal,” Railways minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, co-incharge of the state, told Open.

Smoothening out the rough edges in the alliance, particularly with regard to Ajit Pawar’s NCP, was a major task for BJP as the Lok Sabha results demonstrated that a vote transfer did not take place. A section of BJP’s vote base was reluctant to back the breakaway NCP which was seen as part of the Sharad Pawar’s NCP not too long back and associated with criminal and corruption cases. The shock of the Lok Sabha set back helped BJP leaders argue that such attitudes would only help the Aghadi and there might have been a broader realisation, feel some BJP functionaries, that there was little to gain by electing an opposition government with NDA back in office at the Centre. “The resounding win for Mahayuti is a watershed moment and it establishes the Sangh ideology’s upper hand in electoral terms. BJP is now the primary force in the state’s political, cultural and social milieu. The pseudo-progressives will have to accept this,” said Vinay Sahasrabuddhe, member of the BJP national executive. He pointed out that commentators who spoke of an “alliance” of Muslims, Dalits and farmers opposing BJP were chasing a chimera. Once BJP got down to the task of countering the claim that its Lok Sabha “400 par (400 plus)” slogan was aimed at ending reservations as alleged by the INDIA alliance, and benefits from state and central schemes began to reach bank accounts, the anticipated revolt of the dispossessed failed to materialise.

While the Prime Minister and other BJP leaders like union Home Minister Amit Shah attacked Congress for its ‘appeasement’ policies, citing the example of the party backing a resolution aimed at restoring Jammu & Kashmir’s special status, the campaign was tweaked to address regional priorities

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THE BJP BRAINS trust in Jharkhand failed to move the tribal vote its way despite a high-pressure campaign that invoked the threat posed by infiltrators from Bangladesh to local culture and beliefs. The cross-sectional unity that the party achieved in Maharashtra did not happen as Jharkhand Mukti Morcha banked on welfare and populist schemes and successfully leveraged the arrest of chief minister Hemant Soren in a case of alleged corruption by the enforcement directorate as a vindictive act. Soren emerged as a tribal leader in his own right and the JMM-led alliance swept 27 of 28 “tribal” seats, barring the one seat contested by turncoat Champai Soren who joined BJP just ahead of the election. Winning 56 of the state’s 81 seats provides Soren with a comfortable margin to ensure his government is not jolted by uncertainties caused by a narrow majority. Former chief minister and BJP state chief Babulal Marandi, while expressing disappointment at the results, noted there is no alternative to the party working with tribal communities and convincing them of its sincerity in securing their interests. Soren retained the support of Jharkhand’s largest Adivasi community, the Santhal, while BJP made no headway with others such as Oraons and Gonds. Moreover, BJP’s ally the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) failed miserably to bring in the tribal vote, winning just one of the 10 seats it contested. BJP’s short-comings reveal weaknesses in reaching tribal and Dalit communities – more so in some states – though the lag does not always translate into electoral losses. There are some states such as Madhya Pradesh for instance, where BJP has done well on reserved seats.

In Jharkhand, Chief Minister Hemant Soren retained the support of the state’s largest adivasi community, the Santhals, while BJP made no headway with others such as Oraons and Gonds

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The big loser in the Maharashtra election was undoubtedly Sharad Pawar. His nephew Ajit Pawar has frequently remarked that no one can guess what his uncle is planning. In Delhi to meet home minister Amit Shah soon after the results, Ajit “Dada” Pawar and senior party leader Praful Patel met the media for a relaxed, informal interaction. While both men agreed that Pawar senior’s thoughts were inscrutable, their satisfaction over out-guessing and out-strategizing the veteran leader was evident. Dada and Patel have insisted that NCP’s previous contacts with BJP in 2017 and 2019 had the backing of Sharad Pawar. In fact, the NCP founder was so agitated with Congress’s demands for a deputy CM and the Speaker’s posts during discussions after the BJP-Sena alliance came unstuck, that he asked Dada and Patel to move ahead with BJP. Pawar senior perhaps did not anticipate just how quickly Dada and Patel would move with the former sworn in deputy CM along with BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis as CM early next morning. Did Sharad Pawar get cold feet? Or was he always just going use the BJP card to counter Congress’s demanding ways? No one might ever know. But the controversies that dogged the MVA government – from allegations of Rs 100 crore being demanded on Mumbai’s restaurants and an extortion plot against India’s top industrialist Mukesh Ambani – and the return of BJP in partnership with Shinde Sena changed the scenario. Dada and Patel did not have to work too hard to convince MLAs that their prospects of re-election would improve if they broke from Pawar and joined hands with BJP. Now, Dada has become the undisputed leader of the NCP having decisively won the Pawar versus Pawar contest.

Despite the scale of defeat in Maharashtra, there are no signs of any introspection in Congress. A meeting of the Congress Working Committee chose to stress allegations of election manipulation and pointed fingers to electronic voting machines. There were a few comments about the need to concentrated on issues such as inflation and the odd CWC member called for organisational reorganisation but Rahul remained unconvinced. It is apparent that Rahul does not share the view that his charge that BJP is eroding constitutional values and that the Modi government is hand in glove with crony capitalists is falling flat with voters. Worryingly for the party, Congress’s populist pitch, promising various “guarantees,” is also not working either with voters asking why such promises were not implemented when the party was in office. The drift in Congress is apparent in Parliament too where other INDIA parties do not support disruption of proceedings over allegations against the Adani group. A senior Opposition MP said Congress has held no discussions with other non-BJP parties since the start of the winter session and is continuing with tactics of disruption without any tangible gains. Most Opposition parties are keen on the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha running so that they can make their points and feel the government can be persuaded to agree to a discussion on the Constitution on the 75^th year of its adoption.

Rahul Gandhi did convene a meeting of Maharashtra leaders after the Haryana results where he expressed his unhappiness about progress of seat-sharing talks. But an assertive intervention that would get Uddhav Thackeray to accept a viable seat-sharing formula did not happen

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The Muslim mobilisation against BJP in Maharashtra did not take BJP surprise as might have been the case in the Lok Sabha election where the community supported Uddhav Sena’s nominees. This time, the Shinde Sena was able to grasp the baton by pointing out that the rival faction no longer resembled the original outfit founded by Balasaheb Thackeray. Uddhav Thackeray’s statement against the Wakf (amendment) Bill following a protest outside his residence by a group of Muslims questioning his silence over the issue was seized on by the Shinde Sena and BJP as evidence that the “original” Sena was no longer recognisable. In rally after rally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi accused Congress of propagating the ideology of the Mughal emperor Aurangzeb, known for his harsh treatment of non-Muslims, while saying BJP remains wedded to Shivaji’s ideals. BJP leaders repeatedly challenged Rahul Gandhi to speak favourably about Hindutva ideologue Vinayak “Veer” Savarkar, who is held in esteem in Maharashtra. The cultural-identity debate swung BJP’s way, giving it an emotive edge that translated into a higher turnout in its favour. The Mahayuti’s vote surged to 49% and the Aghadi’s slumped to 35%. With such a large difference in vote shares, the saffron Tsunami that lifted the Mahayuti to a massive victory was not a surprise with the Aghadi reduced to a few small patches across the state. A key part of the Mahayuti planning, said Vaishnaw, was to ensure close coordination among partners. “At all stages through the campaign, on all issues regarding seat sharing or responding to feedback, Mahauyuti leaders were in close touch,” said Vaishnaw.

While the Prime Minister and other BJP leaders like home minister Amit Shah attacked Congress for its “appeasement” policies, citing the example of the party backing a resolution aimed at restoring Jammu and Kashmir’s special status in the newly formed assembly, regional priorities mattered. With Marathwada the epicentre of the Maratha quota agitation, BJP managers emphasised that Fadnavis during his term as chief minister had first addressed the demand. Later, after several court battles, it was the Mahayuti government led by Eknath Shinde that handed out quota eligibility certificates. Quota agitation leader Manoj Jarange had kept the region on the boil with frequent protests and fasts and looked a serious threat to the Mahayuti as he targeted Fadnavis. His decision to first announce that he will put up candidates and then withdrawing the move hurt his credibility. BJP leaders feel Jarange changed his mind on the prod of the Sharad Pawar NCP which felt this would benefit the Mahayuti. The activist-leader’s decision was seen as intended to benefit Pawar senior and this might have hardened the resolve of other groups like OBCs to back BJP. The Mahayuti won 40 of 46 seats in Marathwada and Fadnavis is set to return as CM even as Jarange fades from limelight.

The turnaround in Maharashtra would further buoy the confidence levels of the Modi government as it regains political support in Haryana and Maharashtra where it underperformed in the Lok Sabha polls. Congress’s lack lustre show, and its petulant insistence on blaming EVMs rather than undertaking an honest review, has weakened opposition unity. While the arithmetic of the Lok Sabha remains unchanged, there is room for manoeuvre for BJP in picking support for contentious legislation like the Wakf amendment bill. The BJP can pin its hopes on the ideological validation of its agenda – despite the setback in Jharkhand – and breathe a sigh of relief that the narrative of the NDA’s downturn post the Lok Sabha polls has been reversed. In the 2014 Maharashtra election, when BJP, Sena, NCP and Congress contested separately, BJP won 122 seats on its own. The result and the subsequent BJP-Sena government was viewed as a spillover of the Lok Sabha Modi wave. It was all of that, but heralded a new turn in the state’s politics that neither Sharad Pawar nor Uddhav Thackeray was able to decipher. Uddhav’s unexpected switch after contesting the 2019 assembly election in alliance with BJP interrupted the process but did not extinguish it. The Modi model spelt a new governance-political-social compact that attracted voters, more specifically young people, who experienced no nostalgia or loyalty to Sharad Pawar or the older Sena. Fadnavis’s projection as an energetic leader committed to a development agenda with no baggage held the popular imagination. At age 83, Sharad Pawar campaigned as hard as he ever had, promising to consider stepping aside and mentoring the next generation. Unfortunately, this was read as a plan to pass on the mantle within the family and a return to a politics Maharashtra had grown tired of.

THE COMEBACK STRATEGIST
Devendra Fadnavis is the architect of BJP’s big victory

Back in 2019, when BJP and the original Shiv Sena were contesting the Maharashtra state elections in an alliance, Devendra Fadnavis had coined a slogan. “Mi punha yein (I shall return),” he would say during campaigns. The slogan encapsulated a promise of the government’s return, but also that of his own personal ambition of returning to head it. His opponents have picked up this slogan to taunt him over the years. When the Lok Sabha results came out earlier this year, so too did the taunts.

The return of Fadnavis in the state polls due later, either as an instrumental force shaping his coalition’s return to power or directly as chief minister, seemed improbable. He appeared to have played all his cards wrong. He was widely viewed as the person who had engineered splits in two parties and led to a groundswell of sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. And his caste identity (Brahmin) seemed to have become a liability, with the Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange Patil dubbing him anti-Maratha.

But five months since, Fadnavis has overseen a remark­able turnaround. “The reason why the alliance and BJP did so well can be credited to Fadnavis’ appeal,” says Sujitsingh Thakur, the state’s BJP general secretary. “People know how capable he has been, both as a chief minister and later as deputy chief minister.”

Fadnavis emerged in the limelight in the vacuum left behind after Gopinath Munde’s unexpected death in 2014. It was widely assumed that Munde would be the party’s face in the state elections, but his death threw the field wide open. Fadnavis was gaining the reputation of a fiery, young leader in the Assembly floor then. He had risen up the ranks rapidly, entering Nagpur’s municipal body as a 20-something corpora­tor in 1992 and the Assembly by 1999. His elevation to the post of chief minister however did come as a surprise, and it was all going well until Thackeray walked out of the alliance.

What worked in the Mahayuti’s favour this time was that while the Opposition’s campaign remained unchanged from its Lok Sabha pitch, Fadnavis and his colleagues recalibrated their approach. “BJP under Fadnavis managed to bring about a big consolidation of the OBC [Other Backward Classes] vote,” says Surendra Jondhale, a political commentator in Mumbai, pointing to how the Maratha stir for reservation under the OBC quota cre­ated a fertile ground for BJP to forge a counter-mobilisation of the state’s OBC voters. Fadnavis is seen to have played a crucial role in crafting the winning strategy, whether it was pushing— along with Shinde and Ajit Pawar—for the Ladki Bahin Yojana’s success, consolidating the Hindu vote, to smoothing out what­ever reservations RSS had towards the Mahayuti alliance.

With this performance, Fadnavis has announced his return.

(By Lhendup G Bhutia)

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Rajeev Deshpande

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