The Assembly Test

WHEN THE BHARATIYA Janata Party (BJP) gave eight of its central leaders tickets to fight the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, it took them by surprise. One of them was party General Secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya who was reluctant to be in the fray in the state election. After advice from senior party leaders, he, however, accepted the task.

In Bhopal, the list further queered the pitch for four-time Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who did not find his own name on it. It finally figured on the one the Election Commission (EC) announced the poll schedule on for five states—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram. At a rally three days earlier, he asked whether “mama”, as he is popularly called, should return as chief minister, and if Narendra Modi should become prime minister again. The crowd shouted “yes” to both questions. Shuttling between rallies, announcing pre-poll bonanzas and highlighting his welfare schemes, he has struck emotional notes, once even saying “jab jaunga tab bahut yaad aunga (when I leave, you will miss me a lot).”

Congress’ chief ministerial candidate Kamal Nath has not let the opportunity slip to take a dig at Chouhan, who has not been named BJP’s face. Nath posted on X that the plight of the chief minister was such that he was himself talking of his exit.

The battlelines are drawn for a direct confrontation between BJP and Congress in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It is welfare schemes versus welfare schemes, promises versus promises, allegations versus counter-allegations and Congress’ chief ministerial faces versus Prime Minister Modi in the run-up to the polls, seen as a forerunner to the General Election in 2024. The stakes are high for both.

Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to­gether account for 54 Lok Sabha seats, of which BJP holds 52. In Chhattisgarh, BJP won nine of the 11 Lok Sabha seats. BJP is hoping to fortify its hold over these seats in the Hindi belt, counting on victories in at least two of the Assembly elections to set the tone in its favour for 2024.

After losing to Congress in the Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh polls, BJP is leaving no stone unturned in the fight for the three northern states. Nor is Congress, which is in power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. For Congress, too, a victory in two states would be heartening, with BJP already peaking in these states in the 2019 General Election. Though the fight in these three states is bipolar, the outcome of the Assembly elections would have consequences for Congress’ equations with parties in the opposition group of I.N.D.I.A. Rahul Gandhi said last month that his party was confident of winning Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana, but it would be a close call in Rajasthan. Ahead of the elections, Congress has promised a caste survey, wherever it is in power, to ensure representation as per population, playing the social justice plank.

BJP is banking on Modi who has been addressing a spate of rallies, brandishing welfare schemes and launching develop­mental projects in election-bound states. According to a senior BJP leader, the party will fight the elections with Modi as the face, steps taken by Central and state governments for women’s empowerment and achievements over 20 years of its rule in Madhya Pradesh, the only one where it is in power, among the five states heading for elections. The party plans to flaunt the Modi government’s women-centric measures, the latest being the Bill granting 33 per cent reservation to women in Lok Sabha and state Assemblies, besides the Chouhan govern­ment’s schemes for the girl child and the recent decision of 35 per cent reservation for women in government jobs in the state.

The BJP leadership has been silent on the question of projecting its regional heavyweights—Chouhan, the longest-serving BJP chief minister; Vasundhara Raje, two-time chief minister of Rajast­han; and Raman Singh, three-time chief minister of Chhattisgarh—neither pitching them as its faces in the three states nor ruling them out. The party is putting up a collective leadership, a tactical line that runs through all the three states. “Keeping the pros and cons in mind, the party leadership has decided to explore a different strategy by putting up a collective leadership of those from different social back­grounds and geographical areas in the states. But the prevailing factor in all is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership,” says party leader Muralidhar Rao, state in-charge of Madhya Pradesh.

The battlelines are drawn for a direct confrontation between BJP and Congress in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It is welfare schemes versus welfare schemes, promises versus promises, allegations versus counter-allegations and Congress’ chief ministerial faces versus Prime Minister Modi in the run-up to the polls

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The strategy, however, has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the political future of its best known regional satraps, Chouhan, Raje and Singh, who find their roles diminishing from the front­line of the party’s battles. Chouhan’s emotional utterances are being seen as either a last-minute strategy to sway votes in favour of BJP or his message to the party, which has given tickets to three Union ministers—Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel and Fag­gan Singh Kulaste—four MPs and Vijayvargiya. Like Chouhan, Patel belongs to the OBC community. Later, besides Chouhan, 24 of his ministers were also given tickets. Chouhan will be fighting from his traditional Budhni seat, which he first won in 1990.

“The party is counting on its four strengths—development, welfare, an important component in India, development of the Mahakal temple in Ujjain, and added to all this is the prime minister’s face that can mobilise people to vote for the party,” says Rao. Though BJP leaders claim there is no incumbent disadvan­tage, the party’s reluctance to name Chouhan as chief ministerial candidate stems from fears of anti-incumbency after nearly two decades of his rule. The party had won 109 of the 230 seats while Congress wrested 114, with around 0.1 per cent difference in their vote shares in 2018. Chouhan returned to power in 2020 after Jy­otiraditya Scindia walked out of Congress to join BJP, along with 22 MLAs. This time, the BJP leadership is taking no chances.

In Rajasthan, a state that traditionally votes out a govern­ment every five years, BJP is banking on “anti-incumbency” against the Ashok Gehlot government, targeting it with issues like corruption and law and order. If Congress loses, it could pave the way for his rival in Congress, Sachin Pilot, getting a bigger organisational role ahead of the 2024 polls. If Congress manages to buck the trend, it would strengthen Gehlot, who is relying on his welfare schemes, such as those relating to health and education. He has already ordered a caste-based survey, close on the heels of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar announcing the findings of such a survey in Bihar, an issue the opposition hopes will counter BJP’s Hindutva card.

In BJP, uncertainty has been looming over projecting Raje as chief ministerial candidate. On the first list, the party gave tickets to seven MPs, including former Union minister Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, and Diya Kumari who like Raje belongs to a royal family. The list of 41 candidates, however, excluded tickets to two Raje loyalists from their seats. Under Raje, the party had deci­sively won the 2003 and 2013 elections, but lost the 2018 polls. Of the 200 seats, Congress won 108 and BJP 70. Notwithstanding its defeat, in the Lok Sabha polls of 2019, BJP wrested 24 of the 25 seats. It also won 28 of the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh. This time, the party is relying on Modi’s appeal even in state elections.

BJP has replicated its strategy in Chhattisgarh, where four MPs are in the fray, including Vijay Baghel, who will take on Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel. Both belong to the OBC community in the state where OBCs, tribals and Scheduled Castes together account for over 95 per cent of the population. Raman Singh, a Thakur, has not been projected as chief ministerial candidate but has been given a ticket to fight from his Nandgaon turf. Congress, which had swept the state in 2018 by winning 68 (which went up to 71 in bypolls) of the 90 seats riding on an anti-incumbency wave, is banking on its government’s schemes catering to farm­ers, villagers and youth. BJP’s campaign revolves around allega­tions of corruption against the government.

In the other two states—Telangana and Mizoram— region­al parties play a pivotal role.

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Amita Shah