‘Total Politics’ at Play

AHEAD OF THE 2004 LOK SABHA polls that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost, it had shared a short-lived alliance with the late PA Sangma, who had rebelled against Congress. An articulate and resourceful leader, Sangma was a well-known politician who enjoyed a standing quite dispro­portionate to the Tura Lok Sabha constituency in Meghalaya he represented. His reputation was well earned and when he met then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, he presented an alli­ance of several Northeast parties that could deliver a very handy bunch of seats. As things turned out, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) crashed in the polls and Sangma made up with Congress, only briefly though. In 2013, he formed the National People’s Party (NPP) and declared support for BJP and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.

THE NEW ALLIES BJP found in the Northeast did help the party in the 2014 General Election but the shift­ing sands of the region’s politics often meant alliances could be easily made and remade. This time round, a cru­cial development altered a predictable pattern: angered by what he considered shabby treatment at the hands of Rahul Gandhi, Assam Congress leader Himanta Biswa Sarma joined BJP in 2015. The saffron party gained a strategic mind that not only understood Sangma’s thinking but took it much farther. The benefits of office no doubt remained the glue that held parties together but BJP was no longer an also-ran. Modi’s appeal led to significant gains in Assam and other states and gave BJP a new heft and Sarma’s efforts, backed by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, led to the formation of the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) the next year. The grouping proved surprisingly endur­ing, gaining ground in all states in the region and even surviv­ing shocks like the recent ethnic violence in Manipur. Given the deeply fractious and cash-and-carry nature of politics, it was quite remarkable that NEDA held on and the BJP-led NDA won elec­tions, including state polls in Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya earlier this year. Bit by bit, NEDA changed the way politics hap­pened in the Northeast and seems now well set to win a majority of the region’s 25 Lok Sabha seats.

The accretion in BJP’s political presence in the Northeast is part of a steady addition of smaller parties in many states. BJP’s domi­nance in Lok Sabha has prevented commentators from fully recog­nising NDA’s expansion which has also often enough been marked by the depletion of the opposition’s ranks. After dilly-dallying with rival choices, Hindustani Awam Morcha leader Jitan Manjhi recently rejoined NDA in Bihar, adding to BJP’s capacity to take on the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Janata Dal-United, or JD(U), combine that banks on a populous Muslim-Yadav combination as its base vote. Efforts are on to bring both the Pashupati Paras and Chirag Paswan factions of the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) under the NDA umbrella. Elsewhere in Haryana, Goa, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Punjab and Jharkhand, there are small and some­times splinter groups allied with BJP, improving its reach and in­fluence. Even as BJP has sought to grow on its own accord in states like Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Telangana, it has not lost sight of the need to ensure numbers and political support. The strategic blunders in 2004— when BJP broke with the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Haryana, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in Assam and, most crucial­ly, with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu—had resulted in decisive reverses. The new BJP leadership that took charge of the party in 2014 has not forgotten the consequences of those ill-con­sidered decisions.

Maharashtra is an important part of BJP’s Lok Sabha calculations, having won 41 of the state’s 48 seats in 2014 and 2019, an impres­sive result on the back of 48 per cent and 50 per cent votes. In 2019, the party was able to sidestep the threat of ‘Maratha’ dissent over the demand for a quota by inducting several leading politicians from the community. But in both the Lok Sabha polls, BJP and the Shiv Sena were partners, and this changed for good after the 2019 Assembly election (held after the Lok Sabha polls). The split in the Sena that led to the ouster of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government was the first important step towards BJP re­gaining pole position in the state. But, as party managers point out, this may not have been enough. The BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) govern­ment was plodding along but there was a need for additional support as, despite the split in the Sena, the Uddhav Thackeray-NCP-Congress combine could pose a stiff chal­lenge by strongly consolidating the anti-BJP vote. The consequences of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Sharad Pawar’s decision to appoint daughter Supriya Sule as working president were not hard to predict and it remains a mystery why the veteran did not, or could not, anticipate the turn of events. NCP leader Ajit Pawar’s decision to join NDA and split his party provides the ballast BJP was seeking as it now hopes to make gains in the sugar belt of western Maha­rashtra. At any rate, Ajit Pawar’s departure causes serious damage to Pawar in his own bastions and weakens MVA. NCP and Sharad Pawar were the muscle and brains driving MVA with Thackeray chipping in as he still commands the loyalty of a section of Shiv Sainiks. Congress has been the weakest link and its claims that it will step up to the job of being the main opposition lack convic­tion and unlikely to inspire its own rank and file.

The support of the Sena and NCP factions has expanded NDA at about the right time. BJP leader and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is seen as the hand behind both developments, revealing a subtle political mind with, ironically enough, comparisons drawn to the political dexterity Sharad Pawar has displayed in the past. Fadnavis has aggres­sively targeted rivals, breaking an unwritten rule between par­ties and leaders that certain constituencies and ‘interests’ were out of bounds. His approach closely reflects the ‘Total Politics’ that Modi and Shah have practised since they assumed charge of BJP. This mantra adds to a strong advocacy of Hindu cultural identity, a big role for the state in directing economic policy, and implementing welfare programmes and specific outreaches to farmers, the rural and urban poor and artisanal communities. The welfare schemes are universal in their reach but touch key political constituencies like the Other Backward Classes (OBC) and the poor more generally. Alongside such governance mea­sures is an enhanced use of technology to increase transparency in government functioning and an anti-corruption campaign that a large section of the opposition says is selective but which the Modi government insists is a war against graft in high plac­es. Again, it has often been the case that rivals did not pursue cases against one another beyond a point but that ‘consensus’ is pretty much broken now. The strategy carries a risk—loss of office could bring a vindictive rival to power who would seek vengeance irrespective of whether a case has any merit or not.

MODI HAS INDICATED that the mantra is not likely to change even after BJP’s defeat in Karnataka, barring a tweak or two. Rather, he has doubled down on accelerating development work and will shortly be on a tour of four states to inaugurate or lay the foundations of 50 projects worth `50 crore. He has iterated the need for “saturation” coverage of ongoing schemes relating to financial inclusion, housing and health access, signalling that he may concentrate on delivery rather than newer schemes. Modi contrasts this political-governance approach to the opposition’s unity efforts which he characterises as a cabal of the corrupt and dynasts. The splits in the Sena and NCP do raise the question of morality but politics is very much the art of the possible. When MVA was in office it was clearly focused on preparing for the next election. The weaknesses of the Thackeray and Pawar clans led to revolts in their parties and BJP was not going to be a disinterested bystander. The opposition meltdown allows NDA to claim an at­tribute that was once a Congress monopoly—that it alone could run governments. The bounce in the opposition camp after voters dumped BJP in Karnataka is proving to be short-lived. Apart from splits and desertions, cases are piling up.

The latest Directorate of Enforcement (ED) chargesheet in the 2004-05 railway jobs for land scam has named Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav, RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad and his wife Rabri Devi, rattling the coalition that JD(U) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar leads. Regional parties have presented stronger resistance to BJP than Congress which has lost most of its direct contests with NDA. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has sought to shake off the losing tag through contact programmes like the Bharat Jodo Yatra but his theme largely centres on the charge that the Sangh Parivar has ‘captured’ institutions and that neither the judiciary nor the Election Commission acts in a free and fair manner. The nar­rative of Indian democracy in terminal decline greatly pleases the anti-BJP commentariat but the constituency, endorsed by sections of the media (including Western media), has not gained significant adherents. State Congress leaders in Karnataka studi­ously avoided issues raised by Rahul (such as the Adani shares controversy) and the leader himself had a minor role to play in the campaign. The Karnataka Congress chose instead to bank on populist promises and BJP’s governance deficits. In a national election, the focus will once again swing back to Rahul and if the Congress media machinery’s articulation is any indication, there is no change or rethink. Indeed, the June 23 meeting of opposition leaders in Patna was underwhelming considering that Lalu’s ‘advice’ to Rahul to trim his beard and get married made it to the headlines.

The war of narratives includes building alliances but does not stop at that. The prime minister’s advocacy of a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) can strike a strong chord with voters. In the weeks following the Law Commission’s invitation of suggestions on UCC, BJP took note of the feedback from various segments that suggested the issue had an immediate resonance. Modi’s comments on UCC mark the start of the debate that will intensify in the months ahead, further sharpening the difference between BJP and its opponents. UCC bill is expected to be introduced in Parliament and will likely be sent to a parliamentary com­mittee for examination. It is unclear whether any legislation can be passed before the next Lok Sabha polls but the government will almost certainly try to do so. Even if the process is not complete, UCC will find pride of place in the BJP election manifesto. With Article 370 and the Ram Mandir pledges out of the way, UCC is the last of BJP’s and its progenitor Bharatiya Jana Sangh’s ‘core agenda’. Till as recently as 2014, when these issues found a brief mention in BJP’s election manifesto, it was argued that the party had reduced its ideological agenda to a passing reference. The construction of a Ram Mandir in Ayodhya will feature as a major achieve­ment when the 2024 campaign begins.

Taken in their totality, the rapid re­alignments in the opposition and BJP’s hard sell of its agenda and achievements are shaping the discussion in the run-up the General Election. State polls at the end of the year will no doubt be read as an indication of the popular mood but, here again, BJP will hope that recent events can sway doubters and fence-sitters as also counter local discontents and com­mon grouses, such as inflation. With the monsoon defying gloomy predictions re­lating to the El Niño phenomenon, the rural economy should remain buoyant, or at least not experience the distress associated with deficient rainfall. The government may consider measures to ease prices and healthy revenues provide the opportunity to do so.

2024: CountdownBJPGeneral election 2024MaharashtraNarendra ModiSharad PawarShiv Sena