Monsoon Matters

As the effects of Cyclone Biparjoy cleared up and hot weather returned over much of north India, atten­tion shifted back to the monsoon in view of the developing El Niño conditions. The monsoon is subject to perennial discussion but there is an added edge this year with Lok Saba polls due in early 2024. A subpar monsoon, goes the narrative, will impact the kharif crop, dampen the rural economy and subdue overall growth, posing po­litical problems for the Narendra Modi government. The science of the Indian monsoon is, however, fairly complex. Almost as important as the warming of Pacific waters that accompanies the El Niño phenomenon is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or the difference in temperatures between the western Indian Ocean near Arabia and the eastern ocean south of Indonesia. A positive dipole helps the monsoon as warmer waters move towards the Gulf, al­lowing cooler waters to rise to the surface elsewhere, pro­viding more moisture for the Indian monsoon. As of now, the average of international models shows a positive IOD for July to September in the +1.1 to +1.4 degree centigrade range. This might aid rainfall which the weatherman says should pick up next month. The Centre’s June 9 data showed a 1.39 lakh hectare lag in rice coverage and a 2.42 lakh hectare lag in coarse-nutri cereals though crops like cotton and sugarcane are on a par compared to 2022. The lags can be made up and, if the monsoon picks up pace, the gap will narrow. Now all eyes are on the monsoon trough hovering over central Karnataka and southern Andhra Pradesh to see whether it begins to move again.

Soft on Fundamentalism?

After having said that the state cabinet had “repealed” the anti-conversion law, senior ministers in the Karnataka government said “defects” in the legislation are being excised and the law prohibiting forceful conversion will remain. What the Congress government seems to have in mind is doing away with stringent provisions introduced by the previous BJP government that caused a lot of unease among sections of the Christian and Muslim clergy. Soon after assuming office, a review of law and order saw senior police officers being warned about being overzealous in “moral policing” and allowing “saffronisation” of the police depart­ment. The message, not difficult to decode, was clear enough. There is a strong apprehension that the directives and political signals add up to a softer posture on ideologies espoused by organisations like the banned Popular Front of India (PFI) and a freer run to fundamentalist elements working through fronts often dressed up as charities to pursue an evangelist agenda.

Visa Relief

In a relief to visa applicants, the US embassy and consulates have released appointment slots in a big way just ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US. Since his arrival in India, new US Ambassador Eric Garcetti has emphasised the need to speed up the visa processes in the light of representations from Senators and Representatives and many others regarding delays in the issuing of visas. The current push to make the visa process faster is seen as a response to the representations and in keeping with the fact that there were, apart from tourists and business travellers, more than 200,000 Indian students in the US in 2021-22. As US universities and colleges encourage and accept Indian students, the visa processes are also expected to be in sync. The US embassy and consulates are working to implement a policy that aims at ensuring avoidable delays do not result in students missing their first day of class.

Canada Self-Goals

The shooting of wanted Khalistani Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada once again put the spotlight on the inability of the Justin Trudeau government’s inability to check terrorist and ex­tremist activities. Nijjar, who was associated with the Khalistan Tiger Force and the separatist Sikhs for Justice, had taken control of a gurdwara in Brit­ish Columbia and was carrying out pro-Khalistan activities without let and hindrance. This reflects an everyday situation in Canada where posters hailing the ‘martyrdom’ of extremists and open anti-India propaganda are common in many gurdwaras. Irrespec­tive of whether such sentiments enjoy support, lack of action has emboldened extremists. Not only has Canada failed to curb Khalistanis, but it has also ac­commodated the divisive demands of militant organisations. The problem does not stop with Khalistani activism. Just a day after Nijjar’s killing, associates of a Canada-based criminal were named in a shooting at a liquor vend in Manesar. The incident, which led to one death, was intended to extort money from the vend owners. It was hardly a surprise that the Canada-based criminal has been further linked to fugitive Goldy Brar, wanted in the murder of Punjabi singer Sidhu Moosewala, and who in turn is part of the notorious Lawrence Bishnoi gang. While Khalistani outfits are supported and bankrolled by Pakistan and pose a direct threat to India, their illegal activities are hardly in Canada’s inter­ests. But as the case of the late and unlamented Nijjar indicates, the Canadian government continues to believe that mollycoddling Khalistanis will earn the support of the larger Sikh community.

BJP Action Plan 

The churn in BJP after the Karnataka defeat has led to some frank discussions about the party’s functioning at the state and apex levels. It was pointed out that the role of a certain senior functionary to be a sounding board and listening post for grievances needs to be more carefully defined. As things stand, party members, even senior ones, are hesitant to air their views as the conversation seems to fall on deaf ears or is sharply refuted. The need to gear up for state polls due later this year and the General Election thereafter is being felt in various quarters in BJP. This might see more concerted efforts to align interests within various state organisations and clarity on leadership roles in poll-bound states. This is seen as essential prerequisites as BJP talks up the achievements of the Modi government in managing the economy and reaching welfare benefits to the poor.

Congress and the Fringe

Congress’ decision to attack the award of the Gandhi Peace Prize to Gorakh­pur-based Gita Press, alleging it was akin to honouring “Savarkar and Godse” is further evidence of the party swinging towards ‘hard secularism’, irrespective of temple visits and profession of “Hanuman bhakti” by party leaders in Madhya Pradesh. Congress’ reliance on ideologically tinged criticism of Gita Press has again raised ques­tions whether the party was confining itself to ‘fringe’ issues and reinforcing the perception that it is out of empathy with the cultural impulses of Hinduism.

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