The Unravelling

AS POLITICAL PARTIES try and decipher the implications of a lower turnout in the initial phases of the Lok Sabha polls, Congress strategists are wrestling with another problem that is proving difficult to get around: the widespread impression that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s return for a third term is a sealed deal. Such a perception can be a concern for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) too, as it might encourage compla­cency among its supporters, but the message for Congress that it is not in the reckoning is hardly reassuring. With voting in three phases and 285 seats over, the main elements of the Congress campaign centred around its promises to provide jobs, generous handouts to youth and women, ensure a fair share of public con­tracts to minorities, removing the 50 per cent cap on reservation and opening the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) quota to non-forwards are failing to gain the traction the party might have hoped for. Though there is a greater discussion on regional and local issues, Congress’ poll pledges seem to be failing to woo voters despite the inducements. It could be that the costs of profligacy are weighing on voters but they may also feel that the benefits and prospects the Modi government offers are worth more than goodies that could turn out to be a deceptive illusion.

A sense of desperation is evident in the efforts of Congress handles that put out a doctored video of Union Home Minister Amit Shah that purportedly shows the leader stating BJP will do away with reservations for the weaker sections. The video is a deliberate manipulation of Shah’s speech in Telangana where he denounced religion-specific reservations provided by the state government for the Muslim community as unconstitutional. It would have been clear to the makers of the fake video that it would have a limited life as it was bound to be challenged. Yet, the intent was to create as much doubt as possible about BJP’s com­mitment to reservations for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Sched­uled Tribes (STs) and backward classes. Aware of the potential damage, BJP hit back swiftly and the Assam and Gujarat police forces arrested persons associated with Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for posting the video and recovered phones and laptops. Edited videos on social media may well be par for the course in elections but their circulation from party handles is un­usual and Modi urged the Election Commission (EC) to take note. The allegation that BJP is seeking a super majority of 400 seats so as to alter the Constitution is not supported by any evidence. No senior BJP leader has made such a suggestion but the allegation serves to invoke fears among Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Dalits, sections of which have gravitated towards the party. The main challenge for Congress lies in figuring out how to disrupt BJP’s social coalition forged by Modi’s advocacy of a Hindutva-plus-development model.

Campaigns often need an emotive spark other than more routine discussions on a party’s record in office. BJP’s espousal of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya gave it the ballast it had lacked in the 1990s and its consecration in January this year, the scrapping of Article 370’s provisions as applicable to Jammu and Kashmir, and the manifesto promise of a uniform civil code (UCC) are part of the election mix, sparking conversations across the length and breadth of the country. But the feedback from the first phase of the Lok Sabha polls might have convinced the BJP leadership about the need to fire its base, the essential requirement in any election which political pundits refer to as “turning out the vote”. Setting an aspirational goal through the call for 400 seats and a commitment to accelerate development is one way while another is finding a fatal flaw in the rival’s armour. That moment came when Modi launched a stinging attack on Congress’ manifesto promises and speeches of Rahul Gandhi to argue that the party is advocating a socially divisive redistribution agenda that will, among other things, promote Muslim quotas at the expense of OBCs, Dalits and tribals. As the message began to sink in, helped by more poorly considered statements by Congress leaders and Gandhi family advisers like US-based Sam Pitroda, the party found itself at risk of becoming the villain of the election. After claiming that Congress poses no threat to it, BJP found a useful enemy, one that would inject a sense of urgency in voters.

How did Congress find itself in a pincer, where it is hav­ing to deny harbouring a redistribution agenda but is unable to explain how its fiscally expansive schemes will be funded other than by increasing taxes? Or that leftist economists like Thomas Piketty find approving mention in the Congress mani­festo, providing the moorings of a political agenda to combat in­equality by reallocating access to national resources? A good part of the problem, say people in the know, is the seemingly blind faith Rahul Gandhi reposes in his current set of advisers who prop­agate an ideological approach mirroring radical leftist theories that embrace caste and class antagonism and present vote-bank politics as an inequality issue. There is, in Congress’ organisational process, a near-exclusion of practising politicians such as those with experience of electoral politics and government. The sifting of party resolutions by politically attuned minds—a task once done by leaders like Pranab Mukherjee and PV Narasimha Rao— is missing and those consulted do not demur with what they feel the leader wants. A process that began with Congress’ support to Left demonstrators in 2016 at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) protesting the death sentence awarded to 2001 Parliament attack conspirator Afzal Guru has culminated in the internalisa­tion of radical propositions that are a convergence of Left-Islamist goals. At the time of the JNU protests, Congress was accused of aligning itself with fringe politics. As things stand, the party has all but given up any claim to the centrist space that the middle classes and a newer, younger and aspirational India can connect with. “Modi has become a brand and his leadership has raised the bar for the office of prime minister. He speaks to a hopeful India while Congress is looking backwards and not recognising how much the country has changed,” BJP National Executive Committee member Tom Vadakkan, once a key member of the Congress media team, told Open.

Not done with his ill-timed remarks about the viability of an inheritance tax, Pitroda followed his remarks with an oped article in the Economic Times where he sought to distinguish between “shareholders” and “stake holders”, arguing that the latter needed more attention in business models. The suggestion that profit-making should not be the driver of economic practices sounds alluring, but does not answer the question whether this can be made a policy direction. How would the interests of stakehold­ers, presumably labour and consumers, be met if an enterprise did not generate value is similarly unanswered. Further, the entire argument misses a significant development in India’s economy and society which has seen an unprecedented addi­tion of retail investors. In February 2024, as many as five million mutual funds accounts were added, a staggering increase from 10millionSIP(systematicinvestmentsplan) accountsin2016. Con­gress has struggled to counter Modi’s adroit use of phases used by Rahul, such a vow to “X ray” India’s income inequality, to say this amounts to an open-ended inquisition. “If anything is kept inside a box of bajra (pearl millet) in your house it will be searched us­ing an X ray,” Modi tells election rallies. Rather than dodging the bullet, Rahul has doubled down saying there is nothing wrong in using an X ray to investigate an illness and declared that a caste count is his life’s ambition. Congress is unable to explain or con­vince voters as to what would be the culmination of a caste census or how will redistribution or an assault on inequality actually work out. The Congress leader’s comments against big business, typically naming the Adani and Ambani groups as beneficiaries of crony capitalism, do nothing to dispel the impression that he is deeply suspicious of capitalism even as Congress-governed stated have welcomed the corporates.

SOME OF RAHUL’S closest aides are seen within the party as not much more than messengers rather than persons providing political and intellectual inputs to the leader. These functionaries convey instructions to party MPs during Parliament sessions and carry out organisational errands. Some of them are seen to have climbed the party ranks by find­ing appropriate patrons rather than any grassroots experience. They find themselves at sea when it comes to settling factional claims or negotiating the nitty-gritty of political arrangements with other opposition leaders and parties. The leader is also seen to place a lot of trust in some particular individuals, such as a former police employee whose advice on security matters has at times placed Rahul’s SPG (special protection group) detail in a difficult spot. As many leaders who have left Congress point out, access to Rahul is limited and the words of a coterie are more likely to fall on receptive ears. Congress’ calculations in the run-up to the elections appear to be based on the view that BJP’s support largely rests on upper castes that provide the party acceptability while the hype draws in less well-off sections whose interests are actually served better elsewhere. The well-to-do beneficiaries of BJP’s economic policies are seen to enjoy disproportionate clout, suppressing caste-based mobilisation that retarded the party’s expansion in the past. In reaching such a conclusion, Congress strategists have not accounted for the support Modi receives from rural communities and residents of urban villages that form ma­jor clusters within cities and towns. Alive to the threat of Mandal parties reviving their caste bases, BJP has worked to deliver ben­efits to these sections while encouraging their incorporation into the Hindutva fold. A great many devotees who throng the Ram Mandir daily are from backward classes and poor backgrounds and have become BJP voters.

With party mechanisms concentrated on amplifying Rahul Gandhi’s message, organisational functions have atrophied with communication becoming a one-way megaphone. A sense of desperation is evident in the efforts of Congress handles that put out a doctored video of Amit Shah

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With the party mechanisms concentrated on amplifying the leader’s message, organisational functions have atrophied with party communication becoming a one-way megaphone. The functionaries who oversee party outreach see little merit in a feed­back mechanism and are keener on furthering personal interests. In the past, direct and personal attacks on the prime minister, such as accusing him of corruption in the Rafale deal during the 2019 election, have proved not only ineffective but counter-produc­tive. Yet, Congress continues to do so, possibly taking a cue from Rahul’s disrespectful references to Modi in first-person singular. The doubts within the party manifest themselves as in the delay in declaring candidates for the Rae Bareli and Amethi seats. “The election committee has authorised the Congress president and he will take a decision soon in the next 24 or 30 hours,” Congress communications in-charge Jairam Ramesh said on May 1. Con­gress chief Mallikarjun Kharge inadvertently noted recently that he would announce the names once they were conveyed to him. Palace politics is not a new phenomenon in Congress where a leader’s standing with 10 Janpath has always counted. There has been a competition to catch the leader’s ear. A senior functionary who gained a seat at the coveted address was often heard speaking to Rahul, offering his opinion on various matters. When the tide turned, and the Congress leader did most of the talking, others concluded that the adviser’s fortunes were on the wane.

In the 2014 General Election, the Modi campaign enjoyed a big advantage on social media with other parties lagging in the new game. Innovative measures such as ‘missed calls’ to signal support for Modi, voluntary student groups and social media am­plification gave BJP access to new voters and increased its reach manifold. Ten years on, the playing field is more level, with other parties smartening their use of new media. The virtual battlefield looks a little confused with rival camps essentially engaged in countering one another rather than agenda-setting. But amid the noise the Modi campaign propagates the prime min­ister’s messaging, with the NaMo app greatly adding to social media platforms. “The prime minister is his own communicator and the party mechanism, social media and apps all ensure a wide dissemination of his messaging,” BJP foreign af­fairs department in-charge Vijay Chauthaiwale, who was closely associated with the 2014 campaign, told Open. On the other hand, the desertion of Congress lead­ers and candidates is a seri­ous negative for Congress which has sought to explain this as the consequence of BJP’s arm-twisting. But while this may serve as a TV bite, it is unconvincing and deepens the impression that the party’s appeal is fading as is the leadership’s control. Ahead of the 1998 Lok Sabha polls, Sonia Gandhi’s elevation as party president at the expense of vet­eran Sitaram Kesri was welcomed as a much-needed reprieve. At the time, Congress insiders said the return of a Gandhi at the helm was needed to stem desertions and reverse the impression that the party was sliding into irrelevance. She did manage a holding operation but it was 2004 before Congress scripted an upset win over the Vajpayee government. It came just in time as the outflow of leaders had resumed and another spell in opposition would have been hard to survive.

A similar situation confronts Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where the centre does not seem to be holding. With Modi and BJP firmly ensconced as frontrunners, Congress gambled on a realignment of social blocs and partnerships with regional parties to stall BJP. Given BJP’s perceived dominance, even a sub-300-seat majority will seem a setback and Congress is looking to play the spoiler in this high-stakes contest. Serious setbacks in the Rajas­than, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Assembly polls in late 2023 ought to have set off loud alarms. BJP’s emphatic return to office in two states and Congress’ inability to exploit incumbency in the third were irrefutable evidence that the opposition’s stock was falling and the populist model that succeeded in Karnataka earlier in the year had limited utility. Congress not only persisted with it but added more flourishes that did nothing to improve its credibility with voters. Rather, the graft and incompetence that dogged the short-lived Congress government in Madhya Pradesh after the 2019 state election only convinced voters that the party had not changed its ways.

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Rajeev Deshpande

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