Promises and Prospects

THE ELECTORAL CYCLE IN MADHYA Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram—less than six months before the Lok Sabha polls—gives these elections a higher profile, often described as the ‘semi-final’ before the vote for the next parliamentary election. But elections in these states have not always turned out to be bellwether events. In 2003, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh but crashed to defeat in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls. In 2008, BJP retained Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh while Congress gained Rajasthan and, in 2009, Congress returned to office at the Centre. In 2013, BJP won all three states and then, led by Narendra Modi, swept to power at the Centre in 2014. In 2018, BJP lost all three states but returned to power at the Centre helped by sweeps in these very states. Since its formation, Telan­gana has been ruled by Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS, formerly TRS). In Mizoram, Con­gress and the Mizo National Front (MNF) have shared the spoils equally since 2003 and currently the regional party is in office. Despite the influence of local and even sub-regional factors in the results, success for the opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A., mainly rep­resented by Congress, will give it a timely boost. A good showing for BJP, looking to re-establish its dominance in the three major north Indian states, will confirm its front-runner status for the 2024 General Election.

BJP VS GEHLOT VS PILOT

IN THE WINTER of 2018, Congress won the Rajasthan elec­tion but BJP did not collapse. So, despite the revolving-door nature of the state’s politics, BJP won 73 seats in the 200-mem­ber Assembly unlike Congress that was whittled down to 21 in 2013. Congress just about reached 100 and sought the support of independents and small parties to shore up its majority. This might have been adequate except that a simmering factional feud in the party saw Sachin Pilot challenging Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s claim to the top job. The debate was settled in favour of the experienced Gehlot but the bitterness remains. There is no love lost on either side and Gehlot has looked on the younger leader as an interloper without significant sup­port among party MLAs. Pilot felt that as the state party chief he could claim credit for Congress’ success. The unresolved claims and seething resentments led to a failed revolt by Pilot in 2020 when he moved to ‘secure’ lodgings in Haryana with a bunch of MLAs. But Gehlot got wind of the plot just in time and prevented some MLAs allied with Pilot from leaving the state. Pilot got stranded short of the numbers needed to bring down the gov­ernment and form an alternative one with BJP’s sizeable tally.

The uneasy peace that prevailed thereafter was disturbed again in 2022, this time by the party leadership hoping to persuade Gehlot to become the national president and give up his perch in Jaipur. Gehlot was quite clear that he would not trade the chief minister’s chair for a glorified party job where the Gandhis would always call the shots; nor was he going to stand aside and let Pilot take over. The move to ease Gehlot out of office fizzled out with the chief minister outflanking party leaders sent to Jaipur and decisively demonstrated his support among MLAs. But neither faction in the state ever accepted the status quo. Congress hopes to buck the state’s trend and retain office but Pilot will expect to get what he feels is long overdue to him.

If BJP wins, the game is over for Congress. But if the numbers run close, Congress may have a lot to worry about within its own ranks. Gehlot has not always been known for his administra­tive capabilities but is a sharp politician. He has understood the utility of the welfare model and unrolled several schemes for the disadvantaged and key voter groups like women, Dalits and trib­als, even as some of the 2018 poll promises remained on paper. The unemployment allowance for youth from economically disadvantaged sections was increased in 2022 from ₹3,500 to ₹4,500 per month for girls and to ₹4,000 from ₹3,500 a month for boys while adding conditions, such as a requirement to work as interns or receive skill training. The coverage of the scheme has been patchy, with many registered to receive benefits. Gehlot has said more than 60 per cent of the 2018 poll promises were implemented by mid-2021 despite the pandemic. The Congress government is making more promises but its record on law and order is poor, particularly with regard to crimes against women. Cases of assault and rape have made headlines and Dalits have been at the receiving end. The beheading of a tailor in Udaipur in a jihadist attack for supporting BJP leader Nupur Sharma’s con­troversial remarks on Prophet Muhammad sent shockwaves through the state.

IS MAMA’S APPEAL ENOUGH?

SHIVRAJ SINGH CHOUHAN is a very successful politi­cian, winning five Lok Sabha elections after first enter­ing the Madhya Pradesh Assembly in 1990. He has been chief minister of Madhya Pradesh since November 2005, except for a short break when BJP failed to win a majority in December 2018, only to stage a return in March 2020 courtesy Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia crossing over with 22 MLAs. Chouhan was seen to have become overly dependent on a circle of bureau­crats ahead of the 2018 loss. BJP was further hurt by a surge of upper-caste resentment over Parliament restoring the tougher provisions of the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Preven­tion) of Atrocities Act that had been moderated by the Supreme Court. Although he does not seem to enjoy the same popularity that propelled him and BJP to successive Assembly wins, his down-to-earth ‘Mama’ image has endured. Despite political exigencies, the state government’s programmes for the poor have reached beneficiaries and Chouhan says the ‘Ladli Behe­na’ scheme intended to reach households not covered by the PM Awas Yojana has benefitted 1.32 crore women. The evidence from the ground suggests recipients of the assistance are ac­knowledging the benefits that have accrued to them. Apart from a fatigue factor that can be anticipated after a long stint as chief minister, Chouhan’s worries lie within as the state BJP has often been factionalised. Leaders and cadres are becoming complacent and harbouring growing ambitions. But things seem to have improved with the BJP leadership directing se­nior leaders, including MPs and Union ministers, to contest Assembly elections. The idea is to make them accountable and give them specific tasks. This has resulted in better party unity. Allegations of corruption in the recruitment of faculty and ad­missions to nursing colleges have been levelled by Congress leader and former Chief Minister Kamal Nath which have been denied by BJP. It is unclear if the allegations have made an im­pression on the wider public and if there is simmering anger as was the case in Karnataka earlier this year. A large state, Madhya Pradesh is often seen in terms of regional markers and election results can vary barring in a wave-like situation. BJP has been strengthened by the entry of Scindia and with leaders working in areas of their influence.

THE SHREWDNESS OF BAGHEL

AFTER HE PIPPED TS Singh Deo to the chief minister’s post, Bhupesh Baghel has proved an adroit leader, keeping intra-party challenges as well as BJP at bay. A suave and articulate politician, Baghel hails from an OBC community and has sought to use the quota card to his benefit by proposing hikes in back­ward and Dalit reservations. The state government has rolled out schemes for direct cash transfers to farmers that supplement the Central assistance of ₹6,000 a year and also launched urban slum healthcare programmes that are replicated in far-flung tribal areas too. Baghel faces a problem with incidents of communal violence creating resentment among tribal communities and has tried to balance competing claims while blaming BJP for stoking violence. He accused the party of being behind the attack on a church in Narayanpur and said the opposition has been put on the backfoot due to Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra. Just how this faultline will play out will be seen with BJP making inci­dents such as the one in Biranpur, where a young man called Bhuneshwar Sahu was killed, a major talking point and giving his father a ticket. Baghel has been on the right side of the Gandhis and survived Singh Deo’s challenge last year when the latter claimed he was assured of being made chief minister for half the state government’s term. Baghel denied any pact and after a brief tussle Singh Deo accepted the deputy chief minister’s post that does not really confer any particular power on him. Baghel has also proved a useful organ­iser in other state elections where he has overseen cam­paigning and, importantly, provided the resources for Congress’ electioneering efforts. An astute leader, he would have noted BJP’s decision to ask former Chief Minister Raman Singh to enter the field and Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s rally in Singh’s constitu­ency of Rajnandgaon. Given that he has proved too adept at survival, Baghel will not take anything for granted.

IT’S ALL ABOUT KCR

EVEN OPPOSITION LEADERS admit that it won’t be easy to unseat Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR). Synonymous with the government in Telangana, Rao is an outsize figure in the political landscape of the state. Well aware that his image and confidence are likely to have a big impact on poll outcomes, he announced the party’s candidates for 115 out of 119 seats months ahead of time in Au­gust, fielding most of the sitting MLAs in a clear show of strength. Surveys indicate that many of them may find it difficult to overcome anti-incumbency in their respective constituencies but the chief minister feels his appeal will matter. Some observers feel there is a tough fight ahead. As Telangana votes on November 30, KCR knows it will be a vote for or against him—everything and everyone else is secondary.

Rao hopes to score a hat-trick after serving two consecutive terms in office during which time, he likes to remind voters, the state’s per capita income and power consumption and growth rate surpassed the national average. At ₹3.12 lakh, Telangana’s per capita income is currently the third-highest in the country, after those of Sikkim and Goa. The Dalit Bandhu scheme that offers ₹10 lakh to Dalit families to start a business, the Rythu Bandhu farm investment support scheme, and 24-hour electricity and drinking water have endeared Rao’s administration to voters, even if concerns about unemployment and the slow progress of infrastructure works remain. Despite his welfarist image, KCR is not taking any chances this time, and therefore ensuring that he counters Congress’ pre-poll guarantees, such as finan­cial assistance to women, with his own. The BRS manifesto is along the same lines as that of Congress in other states, including Karnataka. And just to be sure that Congress, which has of late been seen to be closing the once-yawning gap between BRS and the opposition even as BJP is currently on the backfoot, does not forge lucrative pre-poll alliances, Rao has warned voters of “anti- Telangana forces” taking over the opposition.

ON THE BORDER

DESPITE BEING PART of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Mizo National Front (MNF) led by Chief Minis­ter Zoramthanga voted for the opposition I.N.D.I.A. grouping’s no-confidence motion against the Modi government in August following differences over the handling of ethnic violence in Ma­nipur. Ever since large numbers of refugees from Myanmar began to arrive after the military junta took charge of the neighbouring country, Zoramthanga has been under pressure to accommodate the arrivals, many of whom share ethnic links with residents of north-eastern states. This populist stance has put him at odds with the Centre which has asked the state to collect biometric data of the refugees to ensure they do not access state welfare services or are enrolled on voter lists. The chief minister’s main challenger is the Zoram People’s Movement which is the main opposition and Congress which is seeking to regain lost ground.

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