AAP’s Options

The arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by the Directorate of Enforcement (ED) has resulted in a serious dilemma for AAP despite the brave front put up by party leaders. Though the party has said Kejriwal will continue to discharge his duties from detention, that’s neither feasible nor practical if he doesn’t get relief from the courts soon. As things stand, the possibility of early relief seems slim given that three other prominent AAP leaders in jail, in the same case relating to the Delhi liquor policy, have so far failed to get bail. While rejecting former Deputy Chief Minister
Manish Sisodia’s bail application, the court observed that there is evidence of illegality in the policy and said Sisodia’s claim that the commission margin was hiked from 5 to 12 per cent in order to “compensate” wholesalers for having to pay a licence fee of `5 crore instead of `5 lakh does not wash. The court said the excess profit earned by wholesalers was as much as `338 crore. “[T]here is no logical correlation between the licence fee increase and the profit margin increase. Whereas this excess profit margin benefit could have been passed on to the consumers in form of lower MRP,” the court said, negating the myth that the policy was somehow “pro-consumer” and not tainted by irregularities. In case Kejriwal does remain out of circulation, AAP will need to consider a replacement soon. The lieutenant governor’s office is watching the situation and could consider making a recommendation if there is no new chief minister in office as it could reach the conclusion that day-to-day governance is being impeded and the situation amounts to a constitutional breakdown. Finding a stand-in—there is talk of Delhi Education Minister Atishi being a likely choice—doesn’t end AAP’s problems. It is unclear if AAP MLAs, many of whom are local influentials in their areas, will cooperate with a new incumbent. AAP has a brute majority of 62 in a House of 70 and splits in the party are not easy to envisage. The Delhi Assembly election is due in February 2025, not long after the Lok Sabha results are out on June 4 this year. This is a challenging time for AAP and Kejriwal.

Ministers at Work

Candidates up for election in the first round of Lok Sabha polling on April 19 are busy in their constituencies and this includes a few Central leaders and ministers as well. The IPL match held in Jaipur on March 24 was attended for a while by a couple of state ministers and Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma but no Central BJP leader was visible. Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav is contesting from Alwar, his first Lok Sabha campaign, and took time off only to welcome the birth of a new cheetah litter at Kuno National Park. Till recently, Yadav was more an organiser and party manager although he is not unfamiliar with the demands of electoral politics. MoS for PMO Jitendra Singh is contesting from Udhampur in Jammu and seeking his third consecutive win. He holds ministerial charge for several departments like science, technology, and personnel. He, too, is busy campaigning in his constituency, which may be favourable to BJP after the abrogation of Article 370 but is challenging in terms of geography and delivery of services.

Test of Pawar

The Pawar versus Pawar drama continues to play out in Maharashtra, with veteran leader Sharad Pawar doing his best to upset nephew Ajit Pawar’s plans for the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency. The senior Pawar is busy persuading members of the Pawar clan to side with him and has achieved some success as well. He is also looking to stir trouble for BJP in some seats like Madha where the party’s choice has upset a few senior leaders. The Lok Sabha polls are a crucial test for Sharad as Ajit has wrested the party symbol and name and Pawar Sr must make do with the rather lengthy NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar). If his faction fails to hold on to its core area of influence, the nephew would well be on his way to becoming the ‘real’ NCP, not unlike how TDP leader N Chandrababu Naidu had eclipsed his father-in-law NT Rama Rao, the charismatic actor-turned-politician. While Sharad Pawar is seen to be popular, the undivided NCP’s performance in the previous two Assembly polls has been underwhelming. And in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, NCP returned just four MPs each time.

Radical DMK

The DMK manifesto promises to revoke the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), oppose a uniform civil code (UCC) and the one nation, one election proposal, as well as curb the powers of governors. While some commentators see this as a manifesto for the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc since the issues outlined are squarely in the domain of the Centre, the document is perhaps the most strident anti-Centre statement that borders on radicalism DMK has issued. The regional party, which was once a BJP ally, has made “federalism” the cornerstone of its identity and while this may not be new, its articulation now goes far beyond the usual regional-federal playbook. It has been noticed that DMK leaders are expending considerable time targeting BJP in statements and rallies. This is surprising as BJP has not been an electoral factor in Tamil Nadu and its growth continues to be modest. One reason could be that DMK is defining itself as a “rejection” of BJP which it paints as alien to Dravidian politics. BJP leader K Annamalai has targeted Dravidian politics as repugnant to Sanatana Dharma. But it could also be the case that BJP is receiving more traction than in the past as its alliance with the Vanniyar-based PMK suggests. PMK leaders S Ramadoss and son Anbumani are known to be hard-headed politicians and clearly see a benefit in allying with BJP. Previously, PMK has been part of alliances led by both AIADMK and DMK.

The Chechen Factor

News from the Ukraine battlefront is worrying. After the terrorist strike in Moscow, the role of Chechen militias in attacks on Russian cities like Belgorod in tandem with Ukrainian forces has attracted greater attention. Chechen warlord Rustam Azhiev has been seen in videos entering Russian territories with armed men and has declared his intention of attacking Russian targets. He has appealed to his men to fight with extra zeal during the holy month of Ramzan. Chechen leaders like Azhiev have an axe to grind against Russian President Vladimir Putin just like the Islamic State which was attacked by Russian jets in Syria and has claimed responsibility for the Moscow attack on March 22. Ukraine is resorting to more desperate tactics as it comes under increased pressure on the battlefield and this has made the situation even more unstable. Radical elements like Chechen militias have no compunctions about provoking Russia and this in turn may push
Putin to consider more severe forms of retaliation.

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