Game of Thrones

UDAYANRAJE BHOSALE stands aloof at the edge of a garden in Satara’s Karad re­gion, gazing intently at the confluence of two rivers, Koyna and Krishna, below. It is only around 10 in the morning, but a se­vere sun has climbed into the sky. Bhosale, who traces his lineage to the celebrated 17th-century Maratha king Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj and is contesting the election from the Satara constituency in west­ern Maharashtra, had announced that he would launch a policy document for the constituency the previous day on social media. But apart from some local journalists and some hangers-on, very few locals have shown up.

He stands askance, and apart from a local BJP leader and a couple of aides, no one is permitted to approach him today. Gradually, how­ever, the restrictions are eased. And, like a scene out of an old palace courtroom, individuals begin approaching him with folded hands, calling him “Maharaj”, one even prostrating in front of him.

Bhosale is a colourful figure in Maharashtra’s politics. He may trace his lineage to a revered Maratha figure, but he speaks with little restraint, and often gives the impression of a man en­amoured with himself. When a photographer takes a picture of him, he raises himself on his toes to make himself seem taller, and raises his collar like an antihero from a 1980s Bollywood film.

What does he think of the opposition?

“They got their words wrong. They are not Maha Vikas Aghadi. They are Maha Faltu Aghadi.”

What does he think of his chances this election?

“I will win…” and then after a lengthy comic pause, “…with a thumping majority.” Around him, his aides are tittering.

But you lost the last time (the 2019 Lok Sabha by-elections, after he quit the undivided NCP to join BJP).

“I am only human,” he says, and makes a lengthy argument about how his mistake of not consulting his voters enough, explaining to them why he was switching over to BJP, had led to his loss.

And then, after a pause, he says, “Also, it was that rain. It had rained that time.” Bhosale is alluding to the viral video of the old NCP patriarch Sharad Pawar, delivering a speech against him in Satara, amidst a heavy downpour, and how that might have turned public opinion against him. He now looks up into the dry hot sky—everyone else’s gaze following his—and smiles to suggest that no such atmospheric event is anywhere near the horizon this time.

Irrespective of what Bhosale says about the election in western Maharashtra, several of which goes to polls on May 7, most agree that the contest this time is going to be much closer than before.

Western Maharashtra has traditionally been controlled by politicians from NCP and Congress. Often referred to as the sugar bowl of the state because of its sugarcane fields and sugar mills, it is a vast and prosperous region that stretches across five districts and 10 Lok Sabha seats, from Pune, Maval and Shirur in the north, all the way to Kolhapur in the south. The levers of power here tends to run through its vast cooperative sector, from sugar factories, dairy and agriculture produce, cotton mills, and credit societies and banks. And this region has tended to throw up some of the most prominent Maratha leaders, including chief ministers like Yashwantrao Chavan, Sharad Pawar, Vasantdada Patil, Sushilkumar Shinde and Prithviraj Chavan.

While NCP and Congress have tended to dominate this region, in recent elections however, BJP has begun to make inroads. In 2009, for instance, while BJP drew a blank and its ally Shiv Sena picked up only two seats, and rivals Congress and NCP won three seats each, by 2019, the tables had turned. BJP had won four, its ally Shiv Sena three, and while NCP picked up three, Con­gress drew a blank. BJP has also been building its clout in the cooperative sector in the last few years, either through elec­tions to these bodies or by poaching leaders who control them. When Ajit Pawar and much of the NCP leadership split from the original party and moved into the Mahayuti alliance of BJP and Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena, it was expected that they car­ried with them whatever clout remained with the original NCP.

MOST ANALYSTS HOWEVER believe that the con­test will not be a cakewalk for the Mahayuti alliance. Sharad Pawar has brought powerful clans back into his fold—such as Vijaysinh Mohite Patil, a prominent west­ern Maharashtra leader who had moved to BJP, and fielded his nephew Dhairyasheel Mohite Patil from Madha—and craftily picked Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) candidates in this region— from Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj, a twelfth-generation descen­dant of Shivaji in Kolhapur to Sushilkumar Shinde’s daughter Praniti Shinde in Solapur—to ensure that the contest will prob­ably go down to the wire in many seats.

What could work in MVA’s favour here is the emotional pitch Pawar has made about the split of NCP and Shiv Sena. “In western Maharashtra, you find many individuals quite upset about the way these parties have been split,” says Surendra Jondhale, a political commentator and professor of po­litical science at the University of Mumbai.“So, for many of these indi­viduals, this might be a key issue in their mind when casting their vote.”

The emotional pull of the split in NCP is particularly high in Baramati, a Pawar pocket borough, where Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra has thrown in a challenge to Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule. Bhimrao Tapkir, the BJP MLA from Khadakwas­la, which falls in the Baramati constituency, says that while Sharad Pawar may have been instrumental in the development of Baramati, the role of Ajit Pawar can’t be denied. “A lot of what you see in Baramati today, all the industries and infrastructure, is all Ajit dada’s doing. He has been looking after the constituency for decades now. He is the one with the local connect, ensuring Supriya wins every time she contested from here,” he says. “I don’t think there will be much sympathy factor for Supriya. Just one or two per cent.” Not far from here, Rohini Khadse, the head of the women’s cell of the Sharad Pawar faction of NCP, is accompany­ing Sule in one of her campaign trails. She claims the election in Maharashtra will revolve around local issues, in particular, the splits engineered in NCP and Shiv Sena. “A father may appoint someone the caretaker of his house. But the house still remains his, doesn’t it?” she asks.

Another imponderable in this region, and the rest of Maharash­tra, is which way the Maratha vote will go. After the stir to include Marathas as Kunbis for OBC reservation in the state played out over the last one year, and the counter-mobilisation of the OBCs that followed, many believe this could have an impact in the elections. However, with no clear call given in favour or against any particular political party, could there really be any influence to the outcome of the elections here? “But if you look at Manoj Jarange Patil’s speeches [leader of the Maratha protests], he had later begun to speak out against the state leadership, Devendra Fadnavis, in particular,” Jondhale says. “In one locality in Nanded, Ashok Chavan [the leader who switched from Con­gress to BJP recently] was even stopped from entering the village by local Maratha youths.” A large section of Marathas tends to be employed in agriculture. And many of them, especially in western Maharashtra, according to experts, are increasingly feeling a discon­nect with the politically powerful clans that dominate this region through the cooperative sectors. “The leaders from this region have gained a lot of power, politically and financially. While the farmers’ state has continued to worsen,” says Raju Shetti, a former MP and farm leader who rose politically in this region by taking on sugar barons. In the past, he won the Hatkanangale seat, a constituency in the sugar belt of western Maharashtra, in alliance with other established political parties. But this time, he is contesting as an independent, taking on the incumbent MP Dhairyasheel Mane of the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and Satyajeet Sarudkar of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena. He points to a growing agrarian crisis in Maharashtra, the lack of water in many regions, and poli­cies like the ban on sugar export that caused domestic prices to slide, and low prices for the local soyabean crop, to suggest that farmers are looking at alternatives outside the established political elite.

While the names of the alliances may suggest strong bonds, within the Mahyuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi remain many old grudges and new rivalries. In Sangli, for instance, while the MVA has announced Chandrahar Patil from the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena as its official candidate, a Con­gressman from a prominent family, Vishal Patil, the grandson of former chief minister Vasantdada Patil, has fielded himself as an independent candidate. In Satara, as Bhosale begins to talk up the likelihood of Mahayuti candidates sweeping the elections in the region, all it takes is a mention of the Ajit Pawar-led NCP’s push to have him contest as an NCP candidate to make him explode. Bhosale is believed to have resisted such an attempt, until the Mahayuti leadership finally relented. “Have you seen that movie Thugs of Hindostan?” he asks. “They are those thugs. Who will go with such thugs.”

It is evening now in Pune, and large crowd of people are making their way into the city’s Race Course, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to deliver a speech in favour of Mahayuti candidates for Baramati, Pune, Maval and Shirur. It is Modi’s third address in a single day, after ad­dressing large rallies in western Maharashtra regions of Sola­pur and Satara. When he arrives, he takes several digs at Rahul Gandhi, talks up his government’s achievements, and calls Sharad Pawar a “wandering spirit” who causes instability not just in other parties, but also his own, and even his family. When Sunetra Pawar delivers her speech, a large section of the crowd begins to cheer, “Tai gaili, vahini aili (elder sister [referring to Sule] is leaving; sister-in-law [referring to Sunetra] is arriving).”

It is difficult to forecast which way a person might vote. Elec­tions are subject to all manners of caprice, and the mind of a voter might also change from moment to moment. But just the pre­vious morning, I had chanced upon a 50-something resident of Baramati at a tea stall in the town’s Bhigwan Chowk. Seated alone, with a newspaper on his lap, he scanned the headlines and gaped at the rickety autorickshaws that made their way through the town, calling out slogans for either Sule or Sunetra. He appeared hesitant to discuss his political leaning, or even offer his name, but he said that like many others in the town, he was a supporter of both Sharad and Ajit Pawar. “I want to believe Ajit dada. He has done so much for this town. But then it was saheb who started it all,” he said. And then, drawing me closer, and speaking in a con­spiratorial whisper, he said, “Whichever way this election goes, when the results come out, our hearts will be broken.”

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