The Scion’s Pursuit

Why Rahul Gandhi won’t have it easy leading the Congress into the electoral fray

Rahul Gandhi has finally shed his reluctance to spearhead the Congress-led alliance in the upcoming electoral bout, seen as a direct contest between the Nehru-Gandhi scion and the BJP’s Narendra Modi. Although the Congress’ ability to win the next big fight remains in doubt, the party’s focus will likely be on small tactical victories that have the potential to queer the pitch for the BJP.

In Delhi, the Congress has propped up a government headed by AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal in the hope that it tempers the Indian middle-class fascination with Modi’s new right-wing politics that celebrates development and economic growth; in Bihar, it is in the process of aligning with Lalu Prasad to consolidate Muslim votes against Modi; and in Andhra Pradesh, it is trying to limit its damages by ensuring the support of a regional formation. But the ruling party’s main challenge is to find a winning message for voters, vast numbers of whom are upset with the way the Centre has handled things under the party’s charge. Rahul Gandhi believes that its entitlement agenda is a vote catcher, but many in the party are of the view that in a fast- urbanising India, it is important to address aspirations of upward mobility. His rival Modi, who draws huge crowds in his campaign outings, has been tapping popular anger against the Congress over unmet aspirations, in-your-face corruption and roadblocks to enterprise.

Gandhi has a tough task at hand, as the Congress’ revival at this stage will depend on his ability to convey how things would be different under his charge. With a general election increasingly becoming an aggregate of state polls, the backing of regional players is critical for victory at the Centre; Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the states that helped the Congress retain power in 2009, now look alien land for the party. Consider each by turn. In the first of these states, the Congress cannot afford to let Telangana slip—if it fails to deliver on its statehood promise, it faces a rout in this region, and if it doesn’t, it will suffer marginalisation in Seemandhra. In Tamil Nadu, the party may be left without an ally. A section of the party has mounted an effort to get the DMK back into the UPA fold. While the AIADMK has declared that it will go it alone, the BJP is trying to woo smaller votes to make the most of pro-Modi sentiments in at least a couple of constituencies. In West Bengal, the Trinamool’s Mamata Banerjee has shown she can pull off victory alone. And the Left remains opposed to the Congress.

Gandhi has been trying to transform the Congress’ organisational hierarchy. But his efforts at the state level—Sachin Pilot’s appointment as Rajasthan’s PCC chief, for example—may not achieve anything to be optimistic about.

The Congress vice-president has larger problems staring him in the face, too. The economy has been looking anaemic for long, with both the average citizen and investor losing faith in the incumbent regime’s ability to steer its progress. A prolonged period of policy paralysis has spooked the ‘India Story’ and Indian businesses are now investing funds overseas rather than within the country. High inflation has widened the emotional distance between the voter and the ruling dispensation. This was demonstrated in the recent Assembly polls, which saw the Congress defeated comprehensively. The economy’s core weakness is visible in its double deficit: current account as well as fiscal. Of the latter, experts believe that the Government may not be able to achieve its target of 4.8 per cent of GDP, since it had already exhausted 94 per cent of its budgeted expenditure by November 2013.

On foreign policy, the party’s challenges are compounded by lack of strategic thinking. After 15 years of cosying up to the US in the hope that it would embrace India as a strategic partner, the country now realises that Washington DC is plainly transactional in its dealings with New Delhi. The Centre’s weak leadership has left India’s neighbourhood policy a mess, with even tiny Maldives displaying the audacity to take on India.

As for national security, the Government has routinely been identifying Red terror and India’s communal divide as top threats, but the Union Home Ministry has not shown the wherewithal to combat these. According to Ministry data, the first nine months of 2013 saw 93 communal clashes in Uttar Pradesh alone.

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PR Ramesh