AAP: The Reckoning

The political battle between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been on a long fuse almost since the day AAP formed the government in Delhi in February 2015. AAP’s second term in office did nothing to slow down a bitter fighting where the party has consistently attacked the Centre for placing hurdles in the way of governance and BJP has levelled a series of cor­ruption allegations against Delhi ministers and targeted Chief Min­ister Arvind Kejriwal for presiding over the wrongdoings. Though unconnected, the heat over cases against senior AAP leaders and the capital’s acrimonious politics rose in conjunction soon after Kejriwal’s outfit failed to make a mark in recent state polls and returned an underwhelming performance in Delhi’s municipal election. Just as AAP’s political stock, despite a win in the Mu­nicipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) polls, seemed to have taken a hit, the Central Bureau of Investigation’s (CBI) probe into the Delhi liquor scam picked up pace, leading to the arrest of former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia on February 26 after a lengthy interrogation.

Sisodia is not the first AAP leader to face a graft investigation, with former Health Minister Satyendar Jain arrested on May 30, 2022 in a case of money laundering. Reports of Jain receiving pref­erential treatment at Delhi’s Tihar Jail have made headlines but till recently he remained a minister without portfolio. Though arguments were advanced in favour of Sisodia too remaining a minister on the grounds that this would demonstrate AAP’s solidarity, both he and Jain quit their ministerial posts. The 18 departments Sisodia held were part of the reasoning offered for his resignation as new incumbents were needed to take up the slack. But BJP was quick to ask why Jain had been retained for so long and its leaders pointed to speculation that Sisodia had been allotted important departments just so that the chief minister did not have a direct imprint on the decisions taken. As AAP leaders accused Central agencies of vindictive and politically motivated action, Sisodia’s arrest could turn out to be an inflection point in both the political and legal battles between the Centre and the Delhi government.

THE NEW EXCISE policy, at the heart of the CBI and Enforcement Directorate (ED) probes, was approved by a group of ministers of the Delhi government in April 2021 after the dilution of certain definitions, according to the complaint filed by ED. The excise policy was leaked to “select persons” prior to being made public and was finally implemented in November 2021. It was swiftly reversed after the lieutenant governor ordered an inquiry. The ED case against the accused is that the policy promoted backdoor cartelisation and led to high wholesale margins of 12 per cent and those for retail touching as much as 185 per cent. A key witness for ED and CBI is a DANICS (Dadra and Nagar Haveli (Civil) Services) officer, C Arvind, who served as secretary to Sisodia and has stated that he was called to a meeting at Kejriwal’s residence in March 2021 where he was given a draft of the group of ministers’ (GoM) report. He has stated that this was the first time that he saw the draft and was directed to finalise the GoM’s report on that basis. There had been no discussion in the GoM on either allowing private entities into the wholesale business for alcohol or fixing a 12 per cent mar­gin for them. Both ED and CBI have said 6 per cent of the profits were to be funnelled back as gratification. ED has argued that liquor manufacturers were guided or directed by persons con­nected with AAP to give their wholesale distribution business to select accused entities named in the cases. A key connection is Vijay Nair, AAP’s communications in-charge and a party in­sider who is currently in jail. ED states that he closely interacted with Sisodia over the excise policy and is said to be the “liason/middleman” on behalf of top AAP leaders.

According to CBI, the case against Sisodia is that the liquor lobby identified as the ‘South Group’ allegedly made a payment of `100 crore to Nair using one Dinesh Arora, a person who has now turned approver in the case. Along with the government official Arvind, the former AAP insider once considered close to Sisodia, is a key part of the evidence and witnesses marshalled by the Central agencies. CBI has alleged that a key concern of the AAP government was to get around the recommendation of an expert committee that did not support zonal licences at retail level or the role of private players in wholesale procurement. Rather it recommended the Delhi government control the wholesale business and award retail licences to individual entities to avoid cartelisation. Official sources held that the opinion of legal ex­perts is not traceable and that the South Group was involved in the framing of the policy. A record has allegedly been recovered from Sisodia’s computer that reflects a profit margin of 5 per cent. The representatives of the South Group putting up at a Delhi hotel used its business centre to photocopy and print documents related to the excise policy which were found to have the same number of pages as the draft handed over to Arvind. This draft contained a 12 per cent margin for wholesalers and a higher turnover eligibil­ity. Chats recovered by CBI point to the inclusion of the lobby’s ‘suggestions’ in the policy. Claiming that it has managed to recover some records from Sisodia’s computer that tally with Arvind’s statements, CBI held that the AAP leader is not forthcoming on the details of the draft GoM report. In sanctioning Sisodia’s custodial investigation, the special court noted: “It is true that he [Sisodia] cannot be expected to make self-incriminating state­ments, but the interests of justice and of a fair investigation re­quire that he should come up with some legitimate answers to the questions which are being put to him by the IO.”

CBI has alleged that a key concern of the AAP government was to get around the recommendation of an expert committee that did not support zonal licences at retail level or the role of private players in wholesale procurement. A record has allegedly been recovered from Sisodia’s computer that reflects a profit margin of 5 per cent

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IN STATEMENTS RELEASED on its website, AAP denies the charges against Sisodia. “The liquor policy is an excuse. The Prime Minister wants to halt the good work being done in Delhi. It is no coincidence that both our health and education ministers have been arrested. You can arrest our ministers but we will replace them with good ministers,” said a post quoting Kejriwal. In a video post, he said that just as Indira Gandhi had crossed all limits in committing excesses at one point of time, so has the prime minister. “This is not right. We will go to each house and explain our position to the public… there is a lot of anger among the people,” he said. In similar statements, AAP Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh accused the Centre of acting against Sisodia as he had done a good job in the education department. The underlying theme is that Central agencies are acting on po­litical dictates to tarnish the image of AAP. BJP leaders counter the claims, stating that specious arguments and excuses will not help AAP. “There has been a string of scams and scandals that have made it apparent that AAP is no different from parties that misuse office. Their claim to bringing in a new kind of politics is proved to be a sham. This has been apparent for some time now but chargesheets filed by agencies, arrest of accused, denial of bail and now the arrest of Sisodia have brought matters out into the public space,” said senior BJP leader and MLA Vijender Gupta. Delhi BJP spokesperson Harish Khurana said complaints filed with the city excise department about violations with regard to the grant of retail licences to entities connected with wholesalers were partially investigated. “We have been raising these issues from 2021. Today, ED is working on establishing the money trail and CBI has zeroed in on Sisodia. There are other cases that will also be in the limelight, such as those regarding incorrect claims about construction of classrooms, purchases of buses, and larges­cale irregularities in payment of relief money to workers during Covid,” he said. According to Khurana, an important reason why the excise policy ran into trouble was the move to open retail in restricted areas which had to be rescinded. The cancellation of more than hundreds of vends was a setback to retailers and their expectations of revenues and BJP also questioned a `144 crore rebate to liquor companies.

ED has said that it has traced some of the alleged kickbacks as having been spent in the Goa election and in poll surveys. But while the investigations and court proceedings continue, the political battle is growing fiercer and has now well and truly engulfed AAP’s fort of Delhi. In its efforts to present itself as a national alternative to BJP, the AAP leadership has tried to make an impression in various state elections. It tasted success in Punjab in 2022 where it won a big majority. The result boosted AAP’s profile even as it benefitted from the break-up of the Akali-BJP alliance and the thoroughly inept interventions of the Congress leadership which first hounded out Amarinder Singh, then denied challenger Navjot Singh Sidhu the chief min­ister’s seat, and finally installed an unconvincing nominee of 10 Janpath. Congress’ self-goals and the Akalis’ lack of credibility opened the gates of political power for AAP which did not fum­ble. AAP’s high-decibel efforts to insert itself into the elections in Goa and, more recently, in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh have come a cropper. The reports of indifferent governance in Punjab and controversies in Delhi seem to have affected the party’s ex­pansion efforts apart from a lack of an organic presence in other states. BJP’s overwhelming victory in Gujarat would not have affected AAP so much had it not been for Kejriwal’s visits to the state and the failure of the ‘Delhi model’ to attract voters who were not swayed by promises of free electricity and monthly allowances to women. In Himachal, the party vacated the arena early in the campaign which was perhaps a mistake as, unlike Gujarat, there was a strong undercurrent of anti-incumbency in the hill state. Though seemingly disparate events, the political setbacks and the investigations have run in tandem and slowly eroded AAP’s standing.

Much now depends on how the cases progress in court. A denial of bail will increase pressures on the party leadership while early relief may well mean the former deputy chief minister is offered some manner of political rehabilitation

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AAP’s electoral success in the Delhi Assembly elections is partly attributed to the near absence of Congress, resulting in a consolidation of anti-BJP votes. But it has also been driven by a significant support of the middle class or ‘colony votes’ and the working classes. A good part of both these sections vote for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP in Lok Sabha polls, resulting in the party getting more than 50 per cent votes in na­tional elections. AAP is left to reckon with the fact that in 2014 and 2019, it did not win a single Lok Sabha seat in Delhi. How­ever, a goodly part of the vote considers Kejriwal and various subsidies favourably when it comes to the state Assembly and while BJP’s vote has increased, it has not been able to challenge AAP’s hegemony. On the other hand, AAP’s vote share in As­sembly, corporation and Lok Sabha polls presents an unstable and variable picture. As the recent MCD election showed, there is depletion in support allowing BJP to retain some traction in middle-class colonies in the face of a three-term incumbency. Though AAP’s vote in terms of the 2017 corporation polls is up, the MCD results were sub-optimal. All these developments are worrying signals for the party that was born of Anna Hazare’s India Against Corruption movement. Much now depends on how the cases involving Sisodia and others progress in court. A denial of bail will increase pressures on the party leadership while early relief may well mean the former deputy chief min­ister is offered some manner of political rehabilitation, even if not a return to the state cabinet.

For BJP, which has struggled to counter Kejriwal’s appeal, there is an opportunity to draw blood and hack away at the leader’s image. But on the other hand, its organisational hurdles remain as Delhi BJP comes across as a divided house and seemed genuinely surprised by a better than expected performance in the corporation election. The party lacks a face that Delhi poli­tics demands and its more popular leaders all plough lone fur­rows. The turn of events, however, offers an opening for the saf­fron party that might be its best chance since it narrowly missed out on forming a government in the 2013 Assembly polls. It now needs to score the winning goal.

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Rajeev Deshpande

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