Winds of Change

The Directorate of Enforcement’s (ED) raids on officials close to Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren come at a time of intense speculation whether the leader is looking to get his wife Kalpana Soren elected as a member of the state Assembly. Soren has so far ducked ED summons for questioning in a case relating to illegal mining and money laundering on the grounds that the summons issued to him is politically motivated. It would seem Soren is considering back-up plans in the event ED acts against him. Also, a senior JMM MLA Sarfraz Ahmed has resigned from the Assembly. The flurry of activity in the JMM camp and the opposition BJP’s claim that Soren is preparing the ground for his wife are linked to mounting speculation that something is afoot in the state. The JMM-led Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) has a comfortable majority in the Assembly but the party on its own has 29 seats, well short of the majority mark. JMM is dependent on Congress’ 17 MLAs. BJP has 26 MLAs and after patching up with the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), the alliance is at 29 seats in the Assembly which has a couple of Independents and the lone NCP MLA, belonging to the Ajit Pawar group, has aligned with NDA. The BJP-led alliance is still well short of the numbers, but rumours about likely defections have gripped Jharkhand from time to time. In a situation of political uncertainty, talk of defections seems to gain credibility. In August 2022, the apprehension of three Congress MLAs with a large sum of cash in West Bengal sparked concerns in the ruling coalition. The three MLAs were suspended but the action was revoked less than a year later with the MLAs claiming they had only travelled to Howrah to buy saris and shoes. It is clear the Mahagathbandhan does not want to risk fresh elections or gaps in its numbers, and the current situation has again resulted in deep worry lines ahead of the Lok Sabha polls with the state elections due in November next year.

ULFA’s Options

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s remarks that he speaks to ULFA hardliner Paresh Baruah every once in a while and his “offer” that the ultra can be given safe passage to visit the state and speak to people and see for himself how things have changed are read as a calibrated move to bring the holdouts to the negotiation table. Baruah, understood to move between China and Myanmar, has been leading an increasingly peripatetic existence and the preparedness of the Arabinda Rajkhowa faction to accept a peace deal is a significant setback. Rajkhowa and fellow ULFA leader Anup Chetia said that the integrity of Assam has been guaranteed and a key reason for their change of heart was the protection of seats for indigenous people through the delimitation exercise in Assam. Chetia said the results of the delimitation exercise were an important reason for supporting the peace moves. Delimitation increased the number of tribal seats by three and SC seats by one, and assuaged fears that demographic changes in certain areas would change the character of some seats. Though the pact is bring criticised by the opposition as not amounting to much, Rajkhowa said they had got a good deal that addressed Assam’s developmental needs. It’s now up to Baruah to figure out his next steps which may not be easy as he has said he is open to talks that include sovereignty, which is clearly off the table. He may also be in a quandary over the expectations of his ‘hosts’ in the time he had been out of India. Yet, if the idea of sovereignty can be discussed in terms of guarantees for Assamese identity, a way forward could emerge.

Thwarting Terror

There are more than a few reasons why Pakistan-based terrorists have been targeting Rajouri-Poonch, looking to instigate tensions in order to counter the success of the security forces in reducing the number of terror attacks in the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). The civilian deaths that followed an ambush, where four Army personnel were killed, are just the sort of situation terrorist groups hope to create. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visited Jammu and told Army personnel that winning hearts was as important as winning battles with terrorists and met family members of the dead civilians. A little more than a week later, Lt Governor of J&K Manoj Sinha met Amit Shah for a more detailed discussion on the gaps that need to be plugged and the need to step up intelligence gathering and surveillance.

Core Strengths

The recent round of deliberations in BJP, which followed a meeting of its national executive, was intended to build on the themes outlined in the executive’s deliberations that include strategies to increase the party’s vote share from the 37.5 per cent it received in 2019. In his detailed intervention at the BJP national executive, Union Home Minister Amit Shah spoke of how the opposition Congress had a dedicated core vote that did not desert the party in almost any circumstance. The opposition’s core voter base had been overwhelmed by BJP receiving almost 50 per cent (or more) votes in major states in northern India but there was nonetheless a need to build a core constituency, Shah told delegates. In the past, BJP has been identified as an ‘upper-caste’ or middle-class party but here, too, the votes of these sections have not always been supportive of the party. BJP’s support has swelled with its success in wooing influential OBC voters who had supported Mandal outfits in the past along with a growing slice of the Dalit and tribal vote. The party is banking on a mix of welfare schemes and the ideological-cultural appeal of Hindutva, along with the generally positive sentiment in the economy to create more lasting loyalties among voters.

Stabilising Ladakh

Of the many suggestions on the way forward in India-China ties, a recent essay by former Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale offers useful options. For one, he calls for a more political impetus that could include restarting the special representative-level dialogue. Any major shift or new initiative seems unlikely with the Lok Sabha polls fast approaching. But his view that India and China have essentially—through disengagement and buffer zones—identified likely “neutralization zones” that can be the basis of a more durable de-escalation sounds more doable than other suggestions. This can also lead to a resolution of sticking points in Demchok and Depsang. Gokhale does warn that any neutralisation zone must lie equally on both the Indian and Chinese sides of the respective claim lines.

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