Terms of Endearment

JUST HOW IMPORTANT is the Muslim question to Narendra Modi? The answer can easily be found in the prime minister’s Independence Day address on August 15 this year. From the exalted ramparts of the Red Fort, Modi thundered that there were three ills that plagued the nation, ills that he was oath-bound to combat and overcome: bhrashtachaar, parivaarvad, tushtikaran. Or corruption, dynastism, and appeasement. The last unmistakably points to his opponents and predecessor’s approach to India’s very large Muslim electorate.

The last Census was held in 2011. The Muslim population then was 172 million. Today, India’s total population has crossed 1.4 billion. Based on previous figures and using a growth rate of at least 14 per cent for Muslims, their numbers should have crossed 200 million. Again, based on national averages, at least 70 per cent, if not more, are above the age of 18. That makes a whopping figure of over 140 million voters. What is more, Modi also knows that nearly half of these 140 million Muslim voters are concentrated in just three states— Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Bengal.

Can an astute politician such as Modi afford to ignore such a large electorate? Obviously, not. If so, how does Modi’s Muslim Model (MMM) tackle such a large chunk of voters? I argued in my last column that Modi had succeeded in unpeeling the anti-Muslim sticker that his opponents and critics had tried to stick on him abroad. He has done so not only by clever and concerted diplomatic efforts. Or by leveraging India’s growing international standing as a balancing or swing power rather than just a rising regional state. With the world’s fifth largest economy and arguably third most powerful armed forces, which are also nuclear-capable, not to mention the world’s largest population, India cannot be ignored.

But not only these factors, important as they are, have helped Modi overcome the anti-Muslim tag overseas. The changing narrative in countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, considered the heartland of Islam, has also contributed to the shift. According to Talmiz Ahmad, former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman, “Political Islam has three main expressions: quietist Islamism, activist Islamism, and radical Islamism.” Perhaps, we may add a fourth expression, emerging before our eyes, moderate and reformist Islamism, as represented by respected clerics like Al-Issa, supported by Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

India has become a bulwark of moderate and reformist Islam in the subcontinent, which has the largest number of Muslims in the world. Modi has already won the hearts and votes of a very large proportion of close to 80 per cent of India’s Hindu population. Both the classes and masses, if we go by electoral trends, are comfortable, even happy, with Hindu majoritarianism. The Modi-led BJP has managed to expose and capitalise on Hindus’ sense of post-Independence aggrievement and marginalisation. Now, a large section of this vote bank is convinced that their Hindu cultural and civilisational identity, as well as aspirations, are better represented and safeguarded by Modi’s BJP sarkar than anyone else in the past. Modi has thus gamified identity politics to his advantage as none before him has managed to do, that too in favour rather than against Hindu consolidation.

But if Hindu consolidation is accomplished by the politics of polarisation along religious lines, Modi also knows that he cannot totally ignore his Muslim voters either. In domestic

policies and politics, Modi’s emphasis on inclusive development

and the slogan “Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas/Together with all, Development for all”, aiming to uplift all sections of society, regardless of religion or background, has shown to Indian Muslims that when it comes to government schemes and benefits, they will not be excluded or discriminated against. In fact, Modi has enhanced special sops to the Muslims. No wonder, his greatest admirers among the Indian Muslims are the women, who see him as a protector. Someone who saved them from the scourge of triple talaq and is also committed to reforming their unfavourable personal laws.

From his days as Gujarat’s chief minister, Modi has also cultivated a special relationship with the Dawoodi Bohra community, a Shia sect. The Dawoodi Bohras, easily recognised by their distinctive attire, are a small but prosperous trading community. Their religious leader, the Syedna, holds a significant position of respect and authority among the community members. Dawoodi Bohras are highly organised and have a strong presence in various countries around the world, including the US, where they have actively participated in events where Modi was present.

During his stopover visit to Cairo, returning from the US, Modi met a delegation of Dawoodi Bohras in the famous and historic 11th-century Al-Hakim bi-Amr Allah mosque. This community has been present at most of Modi’s international events. I was witness to this in one of the largest and most successful of these gatherings, the Howdy Modi event held in Houston, Texas, in September 2019, where Modi, along with then-US President Donald Trump, addressed a massive gathering of the Indian diaspora and friends of India. The Dawoodi Bohra community members were visible among the attendees, further affirming their support for Modi.

Without a doubt, Modi also has a whole team of influential and notable Indian Muslims rooting for him. Among them is BJP’s most visible, some would say most influential spokesperson today, Shehzad Poonawalla. Other Muslim leaders and influencers on Modi’s side include MJ Akbar, Ata Hasnain, Minhaz Merchant, Maroof Raza, Syed Akbaruddin, Shazia Ilmi, and Zafar Sareshwala—to name just a few. At the other end of the social spectrum, Modi’s outreach to the Pasmanda Muslims, or those who converted from the lower classes and castes and are still trampled down within the Muslim social hierarchy, has gone to prove that Muslims do not vote en bloc. Divide and rule applies as much to them as to Hindus.

Team Modi has also understood a crucial psychological truth about Muslims, whether in India or abroad. They respect and appreciate strong rulers, despising and taking advantage of weaker ones. This fact is repeatedly borne out throughout the history of Islamic imperialism. Weak leadership only increases the suffering of the masses, making the latter vulnerable to predatory middlemen. Indian Muslims, especially of the toiling service and craftsman class, know this only too well. They have, consequently, become suspicious of unscrupulous demagogues, whether religious or political. They would rather live under a fair and just system in which it is clear where they stand or sit rather than stumble through a fog of false promises and dashed hope.

In Uttar Pradesh (UP), for instance, where summary “bulldozer” justice has been directed at Muslim mobsters, not to mention targeted encounter killings of marked gangsters, the reaction of ordinary Muslims has often been, “Well, they deserved it. Galat kaam karoge toh yahi aanjam hoga.” In fact, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s tough stance against crime has earned him praise from Hindus and Muslims alike. UP, as mentioned earlier, will be a crucial state with its 80 seats in Lok Sabha, in next year’s General Election. Even a small swing of the Muslim vote in crucial constituencies in BJP’s favour will help the party come back to power.

Put all the above factors together and we may expect a clear MMM to work itself out as India goes into campaign mode. Modi will woo Indian Muslims, offering them a respectable, even if junior role, in India’s growth story. He will appeal to Pasmanda Muslims to join the national mainstream, abandoning their cynically exploitative erstwhile leaders. He will use an openly communal party like All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen to spilt Muslim votes in areas far away from their regional bases in Hyderabad and Aurangabad. He will play the card of the banned Popular Front of India (PFI) to isolate and marginalise radical Islamism in states like Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, where BJP wants to make inroads. Anti- Muslim rabble-rousing may also be permitted in parts of India where Hindu consolidation needs to be reinforced. At the same time, communal violence in BJP-ruled states will not be allowed although it is likely to increase in opposition-ruled states like West Bengal.

With such smart strategies and more working for him, Modi and his Muslim Model, are likely to both outwit and outmanoeuvre the secularist campaign against him in India. In fact, opposition contenders for power in BJP-ruled states, such as Kamal Nath, have been known to take a leaf out of Modi’s book. Nath was recently quoted as saying, “Data shows that 82 per cent are Hindus in our country. There is no debate here that we are a Hindu Rashtra.”

BJPIndian MuslimsNarendra Modipoliticsreformist Islamunscrupulous demagogues