Punjab Plotlines

Barely had the dust settled on the Supreme Court’s verdict installing AAP’s Kuldeep Kumar, who was supported by Congress, as Chandigarh mayor that the allies suffered a fresh setback. Ironically, fresh elections for senior deputy mayor and deputy mayors were required after the court held the previous voting to be vitiated by electoral malpractice. In the period between the overturned election and the Supreme Court’s ruling, three AAP corporators switched sides to BJP. The defections tilted the balance in favour of BJP and led to the party’s nominees winning the deputy mayoral contests. The results were not a surprise but conveyed an important signal with the lone Akali corporator voting with NDA. The talks between BJP and SAD had lost momentum after Left-aligned farm unions in Punjab renewed their agitation. However, the stir has been steadily losing steam with farm unions in Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh keeping away from it. Attempts by some farmer factions in Manesar to raise demands for a second round of compensation for land that has been acquired have also not gone far. If there is no flare-up on the farmer front, the possibility of SAD and BJP renewing their alliance cannot be ruled out. The Akalis are acutely aware that the Hindu vote that backs BJP is crucial to its fortunes, particularly since there is no visible uptick in the SAD graph. The bad blood between AAP and Congress, despite opportunistic alliances as in the Chandigarh poll, is all too evident. Congress has conceded seats to AAP in Haryana and Gujarat besides giving the party the major share in Delhi. Yet, the lack of cordiality between AAP and Congress was on display in the Punjab Assembly where Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann lit into Partap Singh Bajwa and the slanging match made headlines. The development shows that Congress and AAP will go for each other’s jugular in the state, creating opportunities for BJP and Akalis if they do indeed find a way to resurrect their alliance.

Unencumbered Leadership

The I.N.D.I.A. bloc scored another self-goal with RJD and SP leaders Lalu Prasad and Akhilesh Yadav questioning Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s criticism of dynastic politics given his alleged lack of a family. At least Lalu ought to have known better than to go down this road since he is an experienced politician. BJP promptly turned things around by countering that, unlike family-driven leaders and parties, Modi sees all Indians as part of his family. Modi himself said that he had left home at a young age and has since worked for society and fellow Indians. I.N.D.I.A. leaders seemed to have forgotten that leaders like Modi, Naveen Patnaik, and Yogi Adityanath enjoy a certain level of credibility with voters for their lack of encumberments. The line that they have no interest in amassing fortunes for families and dependents resonates with voters in contrast to parties where sons and daughters are put up as electoral candidates and political inheritors.

Congress’ Himachal Low

The embarrassment over the Rajya Sabha debacle where well-known lawyer Abhishek Singhvi, Congress’ candidate in Himachal Pradesh, lost due to an insurrection within the party has shaken the state government. Chief minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu has said rebels will be welcome to return in a bid to shore up his government. The grouse of Pratibha Singh and Vikramaditya Singh, widow and son of the late Virbhadra Singh, over their apparent ‘sidelining’ has weakened Congress. Though the state government seems to have survived for now, it has received a severe jolt ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. The lack of coherence in state units and inability of the central leadership to restore order is leading many state leaders to conclude that they have no future in Congress. The latest to leave the party being its Gujarat veteran Arjun Modhwadia, who quit saying that he was hurt by Congress’ decision to decline the invitation to attend the consecration ceremony of Ram Lalla in Ayodhya on January 22.

Seeking Time on Electoral Bonds

The matter of electoral bonds is before the Supreme Court again with SBI seeking time till June 30 to reveal the names of electoral donors who purchased the bonds. This would mean the disclosures will happen well after the Lok Sabha polls are over. The bank has pointed to difficulties in unravelling the donor-funds connections. However, there is another aspect to the ruling. Though all ruling parties, whether at the Centre or in states, have received the larger share of donations through bonds, a group of activist lawyers and transparency crusaders are hoping to claim a ‘corporate-government’ nexus on the basis of donations through bonds. Their efforts may be thwarted in the light of SBI’s submissions as the regulations and procedures intended to ensure anonymity of electoral bonds are not easy to undo. The court direction to make the names of donors public does raise a problematic issue. Since the donations were made under a law that ensured anonymity, how fair is it to make public the names of corporates that were guided by the law first outlined in 2017? They made the donations believing the contributions will remain anonymous and are now being retrospectively exposed
to disclosure.

BJP’S Bengal Hopes

Among BJP’s list of candidates for West Bengal is Anirban Ganguly, the soft-spoken urbane director of the Syama Prasad Mookerjee Research Foundation. He has built the foundation’s resources and organised frequent lectures and interactions on political and social issues. He had contested the Assembly polls in 2021 and while he lost to the Trinamool candidate, BJP’s vote share had risen. His nomination from Jadavpur makes the contest interesting as Ganguly has the credentials to appeal to urban voters. Also, BJP hopes the events in Sandeshkhali could turn educated or ‘bhadralok’ opinion away from Trinamool and in favour of the saffron party. Overall, BJP is bullish about its prospects in the state where it has emerged as the principal challenger to Trinamool. Seat talks between Trinamool and Congress are stuttering not the least because of the deep animosity between the former and the Left, which is also part of I.N.D.I.A.

No Talks With Pakistan

Reports about the new Pakistan government’s alleged preparedness to resume talks with India seem overcooked. For one, the coalition headed by Shehbaz Sharif is far from coherent and dependent on the army although they both have a strong mutual interest in keeping the jailed Imran Khan at bay. But with elections fast approaching, the Modi government has no interest or the bandwidth to consider engagement with Pakistan. Then again, the results of Pakistan’s election show that despite blatant rigging, the army was not able to prevent independents backed by Khan (his party lost its cricket bat symbol) from winning the most number of seats. This is quite a setback for the army and indicates its declining stock with the public. Thus, there is no incentive for India to provide either the new government in Islamabad or the army any legitimacy by restarting the bilateral process. India is likely to continue to insist on proof of verifiable action against terror groups operating from Pakistan.

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