KCR’S Tough Test

With the final votes cast for five Assembly elections, anticipation is building up about what the EVMs will reveal on December 3. As the election closed in Telangana on November 30, the buzz about the likely exit of the K Chandrashekar Rao government grew stronger. KCR, as the chief minister is better known, has had a gilded run in office since he managed to prod and nudge Congress to agreeing to the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh. The Bill to divide erstwhile Andhra Pradesh was passed by Rajya Sabha in February 2014 after going through Lok Sabha earlier. On that day, KCR sat in Parliament’s Central Hall, sipping cups of coffee, waiting the Bill’s final passage. He knew his day in the sun was at hand. The legislation was taken up in the teeth of opposition from Congress MPs from the ‘Andhra’ region who had continuously obstructed proceedings in Parliament, with one member even using a pepper spray in the well of Lok Sabha to the great discomfiture of many MPs. KCR won the 2014 and 2018 state elections, increasing his margin and relegating Congress to a distant second. With the remainder of Andhra Pradesh also slipping into the hands of Congress rebel YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, the party was ousted from a bastion that provided crucial heft in the formation of UPA governments in 2004 and 2009. Now, KCR is facing the sternest test of his career as incumbency and a general sense of disillusionment seem to have led voters to look for options other than BRS. Some commentators wonder if KCR’s purported national ambitions—the reason Telangana was replaced by Bharat in the party’s name—were a misplaced effort. Regional parties have carved out spaces for themselves on the basis of state identity and culture. Andhra Pradesh has been no exception with TDP emerging as Congress’ challenger in the mid-1980s. Apart from the distractions of his national ambitions, misgovernance and alleged scams are hurting BRS, making the election a razor-sharp contest.

BJD’s New Star

The induction of former bureaucrat VK Pandian into BJD was a mere formality but is a significant development nonetheless. Pandian, who was recently granted voluntary retirement from the IAS, joined the party in the presence of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik who said the former officer will continue to serve Odisha as he did when in government. Pandian was earlier this year appointed head of the 5T (transformational initiative) and oversaw the ‘Ama Odisha Nabin Odisha’ programme. Pandian will be a key person in BJD’s bid to repeat its electoral success when both state and Lok Sabha polls are held next year. The party will be seeking a record sixth term in office. It goes without saying that he will also have a say in the selection of candidates for both Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. This really increases Pandian’s clout as selection also involves denial of ticket, something all BJD MLAs and MPs are acutely aware of.

Stubble Trouble

As the stubble-burning season finally comes to an end, it is hard to consider how things will be different next year. Despite 45 per cent of Central funds for stubble management to mitigate Delhi’s winter air pollution going to Punjab, it is clear that hardly any measure was taken in the past few months ahead of the reaping and stubble-burning season. The farm unions that organised a blockade of the national capital to oppose the farm reform laws were again at the forefront, egging farmers on to burn stubble and defy state officials seeking to prevent them from doing so. Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has appealed to the unions not to block roads, saying this will make only them unpopular with people. It does seem likely that his advice fell on deaf ears as the unions feel they can defy the state government at will.

The Fadnavis Formula

BJP leader and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is slowly pushing the various blocs in the BJP-Shiv Sena-Ajit Pawar NCP alliance towards a seat-sharing formula for the Lok Sabha polls. It is not an easy task as BJP has to sort out internal claimants to seats that will go to allies. But the leader is confident that Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Pawar are sufficiently invested in making the alliance work, having decided to become allies. The arrangement being worked out will mean giving Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar a major say in western Maharashtra’s sugar belt where he will be pitted against his uncle Sharad Pawar. A consolidation of Sena, Pawar, and BJP votes, feels Fadnavis, will be a powerful combination. He is also hopeful that the Maratha quota agitation, which remains a major thorn in the side for BJP, will be resolved with OBC certificates being given to Marathas with Kunbi caste proof. Though quota activists demand that all Marathas be clubbed as OBCs, the resistance of backward leaders makes this difficult. Also, with some Marathas getting the OBC tag, there is the likelihood of some division in the ranks.

The Khalistan Blind Spot

The arrest of two operatives of Canada-based Khalistani gangster Arsh Dalla after a shootout in Delhi has again highlighted a blind spot in the Western media’s reporting on the criminal and terrorist links of Khalistanis in the US, Canada, and the UK. While leaks on the US having told India about its “concerns” that New Delhi might be involved in a plot against Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun made headlines, Pannun’s threats against Air India and open incitement to violence against Indian diplomats or SFJ’s links to Pakistan’s ISI barely gets a mention. The report in a British daily on the Pannun case says he “angered” Indian officials by his video asking Sikhs not to fly Air India as it could be life-threatening. The imputation being that this might be cause for covert action against Pannun rather than any censure of his violent threats. To date there has been no action on the part of the US authorities against Pannun who regularly calls for the “political death” of Indian leaders.

Missile Message

Military strategists and planners across the world are closely following Israel’s war against Hamas to draw lessons that can be useful in full-blown or limited conflicts. The use of ballistic missiles by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen has set off alarms. The missile was struck down by the IDF, but the fact that it travelled 1,600 km and was used by a militia or a non-state actor is cause for worry. Armed with a conventional warhead the missile could have resulted in significant civilian casualties if it had hit its target. A terror attack launched from a remote region is a worrisome scenario. In the Indian context, Pakistan-based terrorist groups have not been able to lay their hands on such weapons as their patron, the Pakistan army, has not permitted this so far. But there is a degree of deniability in a long-range strike and the role of countries like Iran and Turkey in developing such munitions, which can find their way into the hands of groups like the Houthis, presents new problems for security establishments.

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