Intelligence Failure

SINCE THE RESULTS OF the General Election were declared and once it became clear that BJP had lost its status as a majority party in Lok Sabha, there were boisterous celebrations in the Congress ecosys­tem. Notwithstanding the relative ease with which Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a majority for the National Democratic Alliance, it was put out that fascism had been roundly defeated in India.

The ability of Congress to move beyond the mid-50 mark and come within a whiff of 100 seats should, naturally, occasion some modest celebration, especially for those who link the future of the 139-year-old party to the political standing of the Gandhi family. However, what struck me as strange was the elation among those who spent much of the first five months of 2024 spreading the canard that the outcome of the Indian elections had been fixed in advance by Modi. The rigging, it was suggested, had been managed by, first, making it impossible for the Opposition parties to effectively campaign and, second, by somehow manipulating the EVMs so irrespective of whom you voted for, the vote would be registered for BJP.

As was evident from the results, both the suggestions turned out to be completely spurious. The Opposition parties performed remarkably well in BJP-governed states such as Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, besides holding on to the seats in places such as Tamil Nadu and West Bengal where BJP was a challenger. The results also indicated that there was zero basis to the theory that Modi had predetermined the outcome of the election through the EVMs.

Had the alarmism of anyone else turned out to be so utterly baseless, they would have covered their faces and retreated from public view for the imaginable future. It speaks volumes for the ‘anti-fascist’ scholarship of India that these people are now celebrating their own roles in preventing India from being overwhelmed by Modi’s totalitarianism.

Somehow, it doesn’t quite add up. If Modi was as committed a representative of the dark forces as is being made out, he would not have left the outcome to chance. Instead, the General Election of 2024 would have resembled the 1933 election in Germany that accorded Hitler his constitutional legitimacy. That the election turned out to be quite normal, with BJP losing ground in many states but also making significant advances in others, should have alerted us to the fact that what often passes for scholarship is a blend of propaganda and alarmism.

This is not to remotely suggest that Modi should be above criticism. Far from it. There is a school of liberalism that believes Indian politics should be concerned with unending conversations and debates involving different strands of opinion. These are the people that advocate India to be in a state of permanent coalitions. Naturally, for them, Modi is anathema. The prime minister has a view of national democracy that values elections but discounts the importance of India being captivated by an unending series of fractious debates. Challenging Modi on the strength of his faith in quick decision-making is legitimate and is based on alternative political philosophies. However, these critics of the prime minister never seem to come clean over their real objections. Instead, their focus is on scaremongering, something that has an appeal to impressionable undergraduates, particularly on Western campuses.

Of course, it should be conceded that some aspects of the alarmism worked. BJP’s unreal target of securing 400 seats or more was cleverly used by the Opposition in parts of Uttar Pradesh to suggest that the Modi government was in a desperate hurry to change a Constitution bequeathed by Babasaheb Ambedkar. More significant, it was also argued—quite effectively, in my view—that the rationale behind wanting to change the Constitution was to do away with reservations for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. It is impossible to be certain that this scaremongering swayed Dalit and tribal opinion decisively against BJP, but no one has been able to provide any credible alternative opinion as to why there was a late swing of Dalit voters. What can be said with a measure of certainty is that the proffering of liberal ideologues had very little to do with this unexpected shift in Dalit votes.

The factors that contributed to BJP missing its target will no doubt preoccupy the minds of politicians and analysts for months to come. Each one of us will have our own explanations. One thing, however, is certain: neither Modi’s detractors nor supporters anticipated such a result.

It was, once again, a failure of intelligence.

About The Author

Swapan Dasgupta

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