India holds the upper hand as hostilities with Pakistan announced

India and Pakistan agreed to cease hostilities after raging artillery, air, missile and drone battles all along the western borders since May during which Pakistani air bases, air defence systems and drone launch pads suffered extensive damage while India substantially warded off attacks on its military installations.

The state of play at the time the cease was confirmed by external affairs minister S Jaishankar in a Tweet at 6.10 pm clearly showed India holding the upper hand. Though Pakistan artillery and mortar fire heavily targeted areas like Jammu in particular causing damage and loss of lives in civilian areas, it was unable to score any hits that can compare with India’s nine drone and missile hits on Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Hizbul Mujahideen camps and bases on May 7.

United States President Donald Trump stated a short while before Jaishankar’s tweet that after a long night of talks mediated by America it could be announced that India and Pakistan had agreed to a “full and immediate” ceasefire. “Congratulations to both countries for using Common Sense and Great Intelligence,” Trump said. India has been offering the “off ramp” or de-escalation to Pakistan and it was Islamabad that decided to do so. The Indian military spokespersons repeatedly underlined the preparedness to launch counter strikes for every Pakistani aggression.

Jaishankar’s statement was precise and to the point. “India and Pakistan have today worked out an understanding on stoppage of firing and military action. India has consistently maintained a firm and uncompromising stance against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. It will continue to do so.” A short while before the halt in hostilities was announced, the Indian government issued a statement that from now on any incident of terror will be considered an act of war. “The Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of Pakistan called the DGMO of India at 15.30 hours (3.30 pm) this afternoon. It was agreed between them that both sides would cease all firing and military action on land, in the air, and at sea with effect from 1700 hours (5 pm),” Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to Jaishankar twice over the past few days, he also spoke to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and more significantly to Pakistan Army chief Gen Asim Munir, the man behind the terrorist killing of 26 male tourists who were segregated on the basis of being non-Muslims at Pahalgam on April 22. The call to Gen Munir was indicative of US doubling down on the pressure point and the font of action in Pakistan.

The miliary, diplomatic and political ramifications of the development can be gauged as follows:

The Military Equation: There is little doubt that despite Pakistan upping the ante with heavy firing and air launched weapons India did not suffer much damage. The brunt of casualties were in civilian areas indicating Pakistan’s disregard for non-combatants. On the other hand, all the military facilities, including ammunition centres and air bases from Srinagar to Bhuj remained operational and did not suffer damage.

At a briefing on Saturday evening, Indian military spokeswomen Col Sophiya Qureshi and Wing Commander Vyomika Singh detailed the extensive damage to Pakistan’s miliary capacities. Pakistan suffered heavy losses with its air bases in Skardu, Sargodha, Jacobabad and Bholari hit by Indian attacks. Indian forces were also able to inflict damage at the Nur Khan, Murid and Rafiqui air bases.

Pakistan attacked 36 locations in India on May 9 and another 26 on May 10. Both sides used air force jets to launch strikes. India did so with overwhelming success on May 7 and again thereafter to attack air bases. Pakistan looked to do the same but without much success.

What Led to A Ceasefire: Pakistan looked to continuously raise the ante from May 8 onwards, seeking some level of parity to the humiliating attacks it suffered on May 7. It refused to heed calls to de-escalate, there was a distinct possibility of the hostilities taking a more serious turn with the use of heavier missiles and other military assets. India was ready for such a scenario as it had principally used its air force’s stand off capacity along with Army’s use of drones. The Indian Navy with its formidable fire power and air craft assets standing ready to strike targets on Pakistan’s coast and in the south-western areas.

Since it was Pakistan that was reluctant to de-escalate, Gen Munir and his colleagues have more explaining to do as why they agreed to stop firing. It was apparent that their moves were not paying off for all the false claims about Indian military and defence capacities being hit. The longer the hostilities stretched out, the harder it would be for Pakistan as it capacities has been eroded by short sighted decisions such as selling ammunition to Ukraine. Its weapons inventory was bolstered by the help it received from Turkey by way of armed drones and the military equipment supplied by China.

There are suggestions that India should have pressed on, but it needs to be remembered that conflict with Pakistan is not a one-stop affair. It is a long battle and Indian armed forces were able to score several important successes, not the least being the precision targeting of the Lashkar headquarters at Muridke and Jaish home base at Bahawalpur that evidenced a high level of intelligence gathering and technological capacities.

The Diplomatic Battle: India was able ensure most world capitals saw the rationale for its action against Pakistan’s terror infrastructure. Though countries like US, United Kingdom, Japan and Norway called for de-escalation, India made it apparent that while it is ready to do so, it will not hesitate to respond should Pakistan attack civilian and military targets. This is exactly what it did when it hit Pakistan’s drone launch pads, air defence systems and air bases, sowing severe doubts in the minds of the Pakistan military.

The diplomatic battle will continue to wage and Pakistan typically pretends it suffered no setbacks. Either US pressure will be blamed for halting its otherwise “successful” military attacks or it will be claimed that India climbed down. The facts on the ground are otherwise. The hostilities were intense but were not going Pakistan’s way and there was no guarantee that a more serious escalation would not have caused more visible harm to its military and even economic infrastructure.

India has been able to put it across to various interlocutors that it will not provide Pakistan and Gen Munir a “face saver” by way of a truce offer or by not responding to attacks on Indian assets. Pakistan would need to understand that it will simply have to stop military action. Any discussions between the DGsMO of the two armies would then follow. There is no commitment to political-level discussions. All indications are that India will continue to take steps such as the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty that it thinks are in its interests.

The Political Calculus: The bold decision to launch strikes not only in PoK but Pakistan’s Punjab heartland and target the theological-terror bases of Lashkar and Jaish confirms and embellishes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image as a decisive and strong leader. It confirms the progress India has made in defence preparedness under his leadership. Though Pakistan sough to assert its “nuisance” value through terrorism and then loose talk on nuclear weapons, it is having to deal with the law of diminishing returns.

Opposition parties, more particularly Congress, will find itself disadvantaged even though its leaders are claiming that ceasefire came about due to American pressure. The role of the US was evident during the Kargil war when President Bill Clinton made Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif stand down on July 4, 1999. But the key reason for any intervention worked is that India was winning the contest, then as now. The international community would see India’s point of view only if it were in a position of strength. It was India’s battle and the vastly improved integrated air defence system and a larger range of deadly weapons gave its military the capacity to inflict pain on Pakistan.

2025 India-Pakistan warCeasefireDonald TrumpNarendra ModiOperation SindoorPahalgamS Jaishankar