As PM Modi grants military free rein, Pakistan scrambles to pre-empt escalation

In Islamabad, panic has arrived before the retaliation. Within hours of Prime Minister Narendra Modi handing the Indian armed forces full operational freedom to respond to the Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan’s security apparatus jolted into visible action—signalling anxious anticipation.

Pakistan’s Minister for Information and Broadcasting Attaullah Tarar, in a sharply worded post on X, declared that India may launch a military operation “within the next 24 to 36 hours” and warned that “any act of aggression will be met with a decisive response.” It was, at once, a statement of alarm and an appeal to the global audience. Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, echoing this statement, said that a military incursion by India was “imminent”. He added that Pakistan’s military was prepared and that strategic decisions had been made in anticipation of possible aggression. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, he said, would only be used if the nation’s existence were directly threatened.

While public messaging struck a note of defiance, the machinery behind the scenes was more kinetic. Reports indicate that conversations were opened with Beijing, Washington, Riyadh, and key interlocutors in the Gulf. These were narrative interventions—designed to reframe Pakistan not as a belligerent power, but as a vulnerable state under threat. “De-escalation” became the word of the hour, even as troop readiness along the Line of Control quietly intensified.

The discomfort in Islamabad stems not only from the spectre of Indian retaliation, but from the clarity of the accusations. The Pahalgam attack, which killed 26 civilians, has been described as the most brutal assault on Indian civilians since Mumbai in 2008. Eyewitness accounts suggest the attackers identified victims by religion before firing. One of the named suspects, Hashim Musa, has been traced to Pakistan’s Para Forces—complicating Islamabad’s ability to feign distance.

India has suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, halted visas for Pakistani nationals, and closed border crossings. Meanwhile, tourist activity in Kashmir has cratered, with 48 official sites shut and hotel occupancy plunging to pandemic-era lows.

But the more damning shift, from Pakistan’s vantage, has been in India’s tone. Where past provocations were met with policy restraint or ambiguous condemnations, this time, Modi has unambiguously delegated action to the military. “It is our national resolve to deliver a crushing blow to terrorism,” he said, ending the meeting with the armed services in Delhi. In Rawalpindi and Islamabad, this delegation has been read as code for an impending strike—its shape still unknown, but its intent unmistakable.

The fog of plausible deniability, which has long been Pakistan’s insulation, has lifted. There is now footage, attribution, and political will. Pakistan now finds itself executing a choreography it did not script—issuing warnings while quietly preparing for the consequences of having been caught, yet again, in the gap between denial and responsibility.

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