The Great Rebound

IN THE MONTHS OF AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER, JUST AHEAD of the October 5 Assembly polls in Haryana, residents of Gurugram suffered the consequences of an overactive monsoon and an inefficient and slothful officialdom, giving rise to memes about the possibilities of boating through the city’s flooded streets. The civic woes were seen to feed into incumbency and discontent, fortifying the view that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) urban support that came to its rescue during the Lok Sabha elections was now dissipating. Indeed, the burden of incumbency was real and could not be wished away. Yet, BJP won the Badshahpur and Gurugram seats, which encompass corporate offices and condos, by margins of over 60,000 votes. In one of the seats, the closest challenger was a BJP rebel, the Congress nominee ending up third. In the two other seats within Gurugram district, Sohna and Pataudi, the latter a reserved constituency, BJP’s wins were equally emphatic. BJP’s returns in other urban centres were equally grati­fying. In the large swathe of constituencies that runs from Hodal in the southeast of Haryana to Mahendragarh in the southwest, BJP barely dropped a seat barring in Muslim-majority Mewat.

Was incumbency overstated? Urbanites residing in colonies and apartment blocks did vote in moderate numbers. But the lack of enthusiasm is not recent, as the voting numbers mirror previous state elections. What is often missed is that urban seats usually have large rural segments where voting was much more brisk. There also exist, in the midst of cities like Gurugram and Faridabad, populous urban villages where the caste matrix holds sway. And as far as the city voters who did turn up at polling booths, most opted for BJP. While the burden of incumbency could be detected in small towns too, this did not swell into an anti-BJP wave due to countervailing forces at work. This included a broad social coalition in favour of BJP uncomfortable with the mobilisation of the Jat community in favour of Congress. The vote in the Lok Sabha polls was more about the Centre and disaffection of key segments, including Dalit com­munities, hurt BJP. In a state election, the choice of chief minister is a matter of immediate import and it was evident that veteran Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda would be back in office if Congress won. He was, as some voters put it,“head of department” in Congress.

COMMON MISTAKES POLLSTERS and media com­mentators can make include a tendency to view elections in the light of previous ones. Since the Haryana election took place just four months after the Lok Sabha contest that saw BJP conceding five of the state’s 10 seats to Congress, a change of guard was seen as a given. This was not to be and the scale of BJP’s victory, winning 48 of the state’s 90 seats, was a remarkable feat that dissipated the negativity about the party’s prospects. It was not just another state election result. No political party, not even Congress in its heyday, has won three elections on the trot. The impact of a win that few saw coming is far-reaching. The narrative Congress and the I.N.D.I.A. bloc sought to build after the Lok Sabha elections is punctured. The issues that Congress felt would galvan­ise voters and quicken BJP’s apparent decline—farmer discontent, protests of Olympic wrestlers, unhappiness over the military’s Agniveer recruitment scheme and the cry that democracy is under threat—fell flat. The farm agitation had a localised effect in areas contiguous to Punjab but failed to stir even a blade of grass in much of the state. The cases lodged by female wrestlers against BJP leader Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh did not cut much ice with voters. The Julana Assembly segment did elect wrestling icon Vinesh Phogat but by just over 6,000 votes as compared with the 24,000 votes lead Congress held there in the Lok Sabha polls. The Agniveer scheme elicited scattered responses but was clearly not a burning issue. The ‘Save the Constitution’ plank proved a non-starter, barely figuring in discussions in the countryside.

“The prime minister held four rallies towards the end of campaigning and this consolidated support for BJP. The Modi brand has become a vote bank. This, along with micro-manage­ment, careful selection of candidates, BJP’s record of work and Congress’ lack of credibility worked in our favour. All 36 biradaries (communities) of Haryana supported BJP,” Union Education Minister and BJP election in-charge Dharmendra Pradhan told Open. In the war of narrative-setting integral to electioneering, Congress’ front-runner status ran aground as it became apparent that caste fault lines and consolidation did not support the party’s assumptions. Hooda is an experienced politician and while he possibly had a point that candidates backed by his rivals in Congress had not done well in the past, the perception that he sidelined all others only strengthened the apprehensions of the non-Jat electorate.

Pradhan argues elections are not a mathematical ex­ercise and electoral strategy should reflect a synergy between what the party articulates and the social base it is ap­pealing to. “This is a matter of chemistry. Pollsters and com­mentators miss the voter who is silent and go with the noise which may not tell the entire story,” he says. Despite the sa­lience of farm unions demanding a law to guarantee minimum support price (MSP), Gurnam Singh Charuni, a prominent face of the 2020-21 protests, barely crossed 1,100 votes. Despite promis­ing a law on MSP, Congress failed to impress rural voters beyond tracts where the caste profile was favourable.

Addressing BJP cadres on the evening of October 8 when the election results were declared, Modi held up the victory in Haryana and BJP’s strong showing in Jammu & Kashmir, where regional party National Conference (NC) is set to lead the next government, as strong validation of his development and reform agenda. “I have said this earlier and repeat it now that there are four categories for which my government and BJP work, that is women, youth, farmers, and the poor. We will continue to work for these sections for Viksit Bharat (developed India),” he said. BJP’s electoral showing saw him launch a searing attack on Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s repeated demand for a caste census and the claim that 90 per cent of society is unrepresent­ed. Modi said, “The whole country is watching how Congress is spreading the poison of caste in our society.” He slammed Congress as being influenced by ‘urban Naxals’ and said voters had rejected the party’s anti-national politics aimed at halting India’s development. The prime minister further upped the ante the next day when he laid the foundation of projects in poll-bound Maharashtra and accused Congress of pitting one Hindu caste against another. Congress has sought to divide Hindus along caste lines but does not speak of similar social categories among Muslims, he said, adding that the opposition party sees political benefits in keeping Hindu society on fire. The frontal attack on Congress, which he said is a parasitic outfit that needs to piggy­back on allies to win elections, is evidence that Modi is hitting his stride ahead of elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi.

Over the last few years, Congress has sought to leverage the farm agitation and the wrestlers’ protests against BJP, weav­ing a viewpoint about the saffron party’s alleged disregard for the nation’s food producers and daughters. Since the wrestlers hail from Haryana and have rural roots, the themes worked in tandem. In his rallies, Rahul Gandhi repeatedly targeted Modi, claiming the prime minister has lost his confidence. Accom­panied by a matching gesture, the Congress leader said Modi is a diminished figure. During his recent tour of the US, he told audiences that the “fear” of Modi and BJP has gone after the Lok Sabha results. The view that the Lok Sabha results are an affir­mation of Congress’ campaign claims that BJP has imperilled the Constitution and Modi has lost his popularity was a serious misreading of the 2024 mandate. BJP’s tally of 240 Lok Sabha seats did expose holes in the ‘400 par’ pitch and that the elections were less ‘presidential’ than the 2014 and 2019 contests. But the reasons lay in regional and caste-specific grouses in states like Uttar Pradesh (UP), Haryana, Maharashtra, and West Bengal— apart from BJP’s miscalculations—rather than an overarching sentiment. Though BJP fell short in terms of the target it set for itself, returning to office for a third term is no mean feat. It is unclear to what extent Rahul involved himself in the campaign and candidate strategies of the party either in Haryana or J&K. The public disaffection of leaders like Selja Kumari, a prominent Congress Dalit face in Haryana, was clearly left unresolved until too late. The efforts of Congress functionaries to level allegations of faults in the vote-counting process were unconvincing and can only deepen the party’s image of being a poor loser. Ironical­ly enough, a VVPAT (voter verification paper trail) reconfirma­tion established a Congress candidate’s win by a narrow margin.

THE STATE ELECTIONS in J&K, the first since 2014 and the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 did not leave room for independents and smaller parties, with NC winning 42 of the 90 seats for which elections were held. BJP held on to its base in Jammu with 29 seats, creating a piquant situation where the new government will lack any Hindu representation from the region. Voters in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley backed NC and reduced former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democrat­ic Party (PDP) to just three seats. The independents put up by the banned Jamaat-e-Islami did poorly too. Of the seven independents elected, three are Hindus. The view that sundry independents and leaders like Engi­neer Rashid, who defeated NC leader Omar Abdullah in the Baramulla Lok Sabha election, might be BJP ‘proxies’ has several takers but does not pro­vide all the answers. Several of the in­dependent candidates took recourse to religiously polarising rhetoric and it is unclear just how BJP could have worked with them. The suggestion that such candidates would become more conciliatory post-victory will re­main untested. Academic Shehla Rashid says it would not have been easy for Jamaat to convince voters, including its supporters, about the change in its stand as it has opposed the validity of the electoral process and the Indian state. “The poor performance of candidates backed by the Jamaat is a pleasant surprise. This is be­cause the political statements assumed extremist overtones. It is a welcome development that they have no role to play,” Rashid told Open. The success of NC, she said, is evidence of the party’s organ­isational presence and that it has had a support base over the years. “NC supporters and voters have a muscle memory about voting for the party. In the given situation, NC emerged as the preferred choice. It is a nationalist and secular party and can use the opportunity to build bridges with people of Jammu too,” she said.

THE ELECTION RESULTS in J&K are marked by a strong return to political activity with vigorous campaigning and celebrations thereafter. Congress’ tally of six seats will disappoint the party as it has not won a single Hindu seat in Jammu and has almost no role to play in the new government. PDP’s diminution, according to observers like Rashid, could have to do with Mehbooba’s sharp anti-state rhetoric that has been seen as reflective of what is described as “soft separatism”. At a time of political uncertainty after the scrapping of Article 370, PDP ranks were depleted by leaders who left as they were uncomfortable with Mehbooba’s stance and articulation on sensitive issues. It could be that the PDP leader was looking to speak for the angry street and while resentment at the Centre might be evident, there is less of an appetite for confrontation and disruption. This unstated view­point could gain more traction as the debate over restoring statehood plays out hereafter. Omar Abdullah has said a resolution in favour of statehood will top the agenda of the new cabinet’s first meeting. This is not unexpected but the nuancing of the relevant pro­cess is crucial given that security and law and order are key considerations. Rashid feels that statehood should not be rushed. “We have just got over hartals and stone throwing. Security matters are best in the hands of the lieutenant governor (LG) and the home ministry,” she says. Internet sus­pensions play havoc with livelihoods and businesses. The current set-up in accordance with J&K’s Union territory status makes the LG the final authority on postings of senior officials; he heads the unified command and exercises control over important departments. The enhanced powers have been criti­cised but regional outfits like NC and PDP have shown little ability or conviction in handling sepa­ratist violence and curbing extremists. Abdullah’s initial com­ments indicate that he is looking to work on his governance agenda rather than picking fights with the LG and the Centre.

The Haryana and J&K elections are politically significant mo­ments. They give BJP an opportunity to regain lost momentum and pursue coalition-building, particularly with Dalit commu­nities. While Congress and BJP have shared the 17 Scheduled Caste (SC) seats in Haryana, the latter improving its tally from five in 2019 to eight, their distribution offers more insights. The SC seats won by Congress include those in northern Haryana where the party has done well. BJP’s success in southern Hary­ana includes SC seats in its stronghold of the Ahirwal belt. In some seats where Jat presence is prominent, Dalits have wavered about supporting Congress. Dalits in the Ahirwal region unhap­py with BJP might have voted for Congress but in the absence of any other allied social group, their choice did not influence the outcome. Post-poll surveys by CSDS-Lokniti indicated that Jatavs, a prominent Dalit community, might have leant towards Congress while other SCs did less so. Yet, the weakness among Dalits is an area that requires BJP’s attention. The findings of some surveys that Jat consolidation for Congress was less than anticipated will worry the party, as they reveal a significant weakness in its electoral calculations. The anticipated revolt by the ‘have nots’ that Congress claimed live in the rain shadow of BJP’s ‘pro-rich’ policies failed to materialise. Even worse, rural communities, including small farmers and OBCs, remained firmly in the BJP camp. They saw in Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini a more organic choice than the weather-beaten Hooda.

Amit ShahAssembly elections 2024BJP-CongressFarooq AbdullahHaryanaJammu and KashmirNarendra ModiNayab Singh SainiRahul Gandhi