Maoist eco-system pitch for talks a false flag

During his recent visit to Chhattisgarh earlier this month, Union Home Minister Amit Shah made a fervent appeal to Maoist insurgents to quit the path of violence and join the mainstream. In his appeal, made by Shah when he was in Dantewada on 5th April, stated that, “Even today, I have come to request all Naxalite brothers, those who have arms in their hands and those who don’t, that you lay down arms, join the mainstream. You are our own. No one is happy when a Naxalite is killed, but this region wants development. The Prime Minister of our country… the development which has not happened in the past fifty years, Narendra Modi ji wants to give everything to Bastar in five years.”

Three days later, the Maoists put an end to speculation about talks when a press release issued by the North-West Sub-Zonal Bureau of the Maoist party stated that “while the party is not averse to peace negotiations, the current conditions in Bastar—marked by on-going killings and security operations—make talks practically impossible.”

On the face of it, the development was curious as yet another release, issued by the Central Committee of the Maoist party—the highest forum of the outlawed group—had on 28th March said that it was in favour of peace talks provided a “conducive atmosphere” for talks was created. The Maoists had listed three pre-conditions for any talks to start. 1) The on-going security operations, especially in the Bastar division of Chhattisgarh should be stopped. 2) Construction of new security camps in the region should be stopped and 3) Security forces should be confined to their camps and not carry out patrolling.

Interestingly, the 28th March release also called on “public intellectuals, writers, journalists in print, electronic and digital media and rights groups…to build pressure on the government,” for talks. It is noteworthy that the release specifically used the expression “public intellectuals,” where an unqualified “intellectual” would have sufficed.

These groups did not disappoint the Maoists.

One non-resident “intellectual,” known for secessionist views, wrote a lengthy piece on the “need for talks” with the Maoists. Two disaffected university professors in the National Capital made similar appeals with one of the two even penning a shrill piece on the subject. In the past fortnight a slew of articles and op-eds have been published making a case for “talks” with Maoists. In an earlier age, the tone of these arguments would have been much more vehement and it would have surprised no one if operations in Bastar and elsewhere would have come to a grinding halt, permitting Maoists to regroup. These tactics in which “civil society” is engaged for subversive ends have a history.

But this time, the cat and mouse game is not yielding dividends. The room for talks remains open, as multiple political authorities—from the home minister of Chhattisgarh all the way to India’s central leadership—have emphasised again and again. But they cannot be based on bad faith pre-conditions as the Maoists and their backers in “civil society” demand.

IN A NUTCRACKER

The calls for “talks” on the part of Maoists and “civil society” ought to be seen against the severe setbacks inflicted on the Maoists since early 2024, months after a change of guard in Chhattisgarh. In the first three and half months of this year, 157 insurgents have been gunned down in the Bastar division of the state. This number is higher than all insurgents eliminated in 2021 (128), 2022 (67) and in 2023 (56). Only in 2024 was the number higher, at 296. But the latter figure is for the entire year. The comparative figures for the first four months in 2021 (31), 2022 (23), 2023 (16) and 2024 (105) clearly show that the numbers until April this year are not a fluke or a mere statistical quirk.

Counterinsurgency in Bastar has a certain climatic rhythm to it, or it used to. Operations speed up from October to March. This six month window is one of the dry season. Between April and May, temperatures rise to almost unbearable levels and then from June until September, the monsoon literally takes over Bastar. This is the time when Maoists rule the roost in most parts as Bastar turns into a set of disconnected islands criss-crossed by seasonal streams and rivulets and rivers rise in a spate. While this climatic break of sorts cannot be avoided, it has been made up for by speeding operations in other months of the year.

What has changed since late 2023, when the Congress government was voted out in the state is the grim resolve of the Centre and the state governments alike to stamp out insurgency. Since 2024, the number of insurgents killed every month is in double digits (with the exception of two months. Data for April is incomplete). The first three months of this year have been particularly destructive for Maoists. Apart from the number of insurgents killed, 521 have surrendered to police authorities in the state. This data for surrenders is not complete as Maoists from Bastar often surrender to Telangana police as well. For example, on 5th April, 86 Maoists surrendered before Bhadradri-Kothagudem police. When one adds the number of those who have surrendered to Mulugu district police this year, the total goes up to 224. Most of them were operating in Bijapur and Sukma districts of Bastar division. Mulugu and Bhadradri-Kothagudem districts are adjacent to Bijapur and Sukma districts and are contiguous to one of the last strongholds of Maoists in Chhattisgarh that stretches as a thick slice from Bhopalpatnam (in Bijapur district) to Konta (in Sukma) district in a North-West to South-East direction. Their other stronghold is in the Abhujmad area of Narayanpur and Bijapur districts that stretches into Gadchiroli in Maharashtra.

EDGED OUT

At one time, the entire stretch from Kanker district all the way to the tip of Bijapur district (in North to South direction) and from Narayanpur district to Bastar district (or what was left of the original Bastar district after other districts were carved out of it) was out of government control. This is an area larger than the entire state of Kerala. This was the heart of the so-called Red Corridor. This situation prevailed until 2010. Thereafter, slowly and haltingly, this area was clawed back by the government. Matters speeded up after 2015. Now this stretch has just two areas where Maoists have sanctuary: A part of Bijapur district (as described above) and a stretch of Abhujmad in Narayanpur district. Because security operations have cleared a large part of Bastar division from Maoist presence, it has become very difficult for them to move from South Bastar (Bijapur) to Abhujmad and the other way round. Operations in these areas are now being conducted in an integrated manner.

It is worth noting that recently Union Home Minister Shah announced that only six districts fell in the “most affected districts” category when it came to Maoist violence. The number in the last such review was 12. Interestingly, Dantewada district is no longer in this list. A glance at the map of Bastar will show the importance of this development: The Maoists have now been cornered in two distinct locations with no contiguous territory between them.

The frantic search for peace talks should be seen against this backdrop of “territorial loss” and decimation of their ranks.

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