The Undiminished

NARENDRA MODI WILL become the first incumbent prime minister to return to office for a third consecutive term 62 years after Jawaharlal Nehru’s hat-trick in 1962.

Only this time BJP has fallen short of the majority mark and India returns to a period of coalition politics after a hiatus of 10 years. A win, of course is a win.

Given that NDA has a stable core it is very well placed to deliver effective governance.

Of course, BJP will have to learn to rule on terms that may not always be set by it. It is true that the prime minister has never personally lost a major election but he has plenty of experience in making compromises. In Karnataka, Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, and Maharashtra BJP ran effective coalition governments under Modi’s aegis.

The chastening of BJP is an affirmation of the robustness of India’s democracy and its guardrails. This is not a country sliding backwards into the abyss of tyranny. Authoritarian leaders never voluntarily subject themselves to an inquisition at the hands of the public. Quite clearly, Modi is very much a democrat willing to let the people have their say.

India’s democracy has matured, and voters are spoilt for choice. No result is pre-ordained, and no precept is sacrosanct except one: performance pays.

And that’s why BJP projected Modi front and centre. BJP knew Modi’s personal credibility was the only guarantee against defeat in the face of 10 years of anti-incumbency exacerbated by twin convulsions.

First, the deflating impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on job prospects. Second, a conflict in Europe that has inflated the price Indians need to pay to simply keep their heads above water.

That the prime minister has emerged from this maelstrom relatively unscathed is still a remarkable feat.

And there are other feats, too.

For one, BJP is by far the single-largest party with more than double the number of seats than Congress. Its vote share has more or less held steady since 2019.

BJP’s seats overall may be down by a little over 50, and it might have lost in its twin citadels—Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Maharashtra—but it has nevertheless broken fresh ground.

In Odisha, BJP has emerged as the ruling party at both the state and national level. In the south, it has made impressive gains. In Andhra Pradesh, NDA will have its government at the state level and an overwhelming share of parliamentarians. In Telangana, it has emerged as a major force. It has opened its account in Kerala. Even in Tamil Nadu, where it has flattered to deceive, BJP has grown. This is the first time since 1989 that a national party leading a third front has won a double-digit vote share.

The disaffection with BJP was localised to a few states where lots had gone wrong.

BJP has seen its support among the depressed classes dwindle in the Hindi heartland, especially in UP. For a variety of reasons, non-Jatav Dalits and non-Yadav OBCs have deserted BJP. The prime minister has always seen himself as the greatest benefactor of these classes. Their goodwill had powered BJP to two terms with massive majorities. BJP will have to introspect why and how they squandered their beneficence.

Simultaneously, BJP may have also squandered the goodwill of some of its own cadre. Putting “winnability above all”, BJP lowered the entry-level threshold substantially. Many leaders taken in laterally had little in common with BJP’s ideological disposition or the Sangh’s cultural outlook. There are murmurs that these imports sparked mini-revolts among BJP’s old guard who didn’t embrace campaigning.

To merely view the result of the 2024 election as a barometer of Modi’s electability would be to reduce the consequentiality of the contest. The 2024 election was unique because it was not merely a competition between leaders but between their vastly differing take on the “idea of India”.

Posterity will judge if the better idea won. But today, a vast number of people have certainly told us that with a few important caveats, they still mainly trust the agency and vision of Prime Minister Modi to secure their future.

2024 Elections2024: The CountdownGeneral election 2024Indian democracyNarendra ModiVerdict 2024