Such a Sop Story

THE DELHI ASSEMBLY ELECTION is fraught with three ironies. One, the ruling Aam Aadmi Par­ty (AAP), which had emerged from Anna Hazare’s middle class-led anti-corruption movement, has effectively abandoned the middle class. The party is also perceived to be corrupt by an overwhelming majority of the middle class. Two, civic and infrastructural issues have taken a backseat and freebies are the plank of all parties. Thus, there is a process of AAP-isation in both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress as far as the Delhi election is concerned. Three, a self-proclaimed all-inclusive party, purportedly inspired by Gandhian and Ambedkarite idealism simultaneously, has divided the city along class fault lines—something none of the Left parties ever succeeded in doing anywhere in India. In this backdrop, it is pertinent to understand the spatial-class structure of Delhi to appreciate these shifts as well as the corresponding appeal of freebies and civic governance, and then to reasonably infer the expected electoral outcomes.

DELHI’S SPATIAL STRUCTURE

No city in the world is homogeneous in terms of class, region, religion, language, ethnicity and spatial structure. Delhi is more layered in terms of spatial structure and class. It has eight lay­ers of residential practices like planned colonies, unauthorised colonies, jhuggi-jhopri clusters (JJC), slum-designated areas, unauthorised-regularised colonies, urban and rural villages, re­settlement colonies, and pavement dwellers. In total, more than 76 per cent of Delhi’s residents live in unplanned spaces like un­authorised colonies, resettlement colonies and JJC, with a low level of basic services and amenities. These colonies are densely populated and mostly by migrants.

From the vantage point of these quasi-legal residential struc­tures and their precariat dwellers, the Assembly election has never been just a formal process of democracy. Rather, it is a site of nego­tiation. In the time of the Sheila Dikshit-led Congress government (1998-2013), voters of unplanned settlements used to wait for elec­tions to negotiate with leaders for basic services. Necessities of everyday life, such as the supply of potable and non-potable water, electricity connections, pucca roads, sewerage etc were the pe­rennial demands on most occasions. Candidates used to promise ad-hoc measures like more water tankers, drains and pucca roads from the MLA Development Funds. However, a transformative change happened with the emergence of AAP as the ruling party when most of these colonies got pucca roads, electricity connec­tions and better water connectivity. Doubling down on populist promises, the incumbent party also made water and electricity free, up to 20 kilolitres and 200 units per month respectively. Hence, a solid support base for AAP among the poor and the lower middle class, residing primarily in the 76 per cent of unplanned areas of Delhi, was consolidated between 2015 and 2020.

AAP has also improved education in government schools and primary healthcare, the latter by its flagship scheme of mohalla clinics whereby basic medical check-up and medicines are pro­vided free of cost. Since the site of these policy interventions was in residential areas housing low-income groups, AAP was able to sweep the 2020 Delhi elections for a consecutive second term despite BJP’s energetic campaign and organisational investment. In 2020, BJP had camped most of its MPs in areas inhabited by people from their respective states.

Also, in our fieldwork in 2020, we had found that even a sec­tion of the middle class and local communities like Jats and Guj­jars, along with the poorer electorate, were appreciative of the incumbent party and voted in significant numbers. Thus, AAP registered a 15 percentage point lead over BJP.

PRESENT REALITIES

Delhi’s surface geography today shows dilapidated roads in posh and planned colonies. In the unplanned sections, open drains, water-logging, uncollected garbage, supply of dirty water etc sig­nify a collapse of civic governance. While this has alienated the middle class from AAP decisively, it has also generated a sense of grudge among the poorer segments who are now complaining.

Further, unlike the 2015 and 2020 elections when most AAP candidates could count on the image of the party and its leader, we now find a deep sense of anti-incumbency against a majority of sitting MLAs. AAP tried to neutralise that by dropping 29 sitting MLAs, accounting for almost half of its legislators. This indicates two shifts from the past. One, there is intense anti-incumbency against most AAP MLAs. Two, while Arvind Kejriwal is still a popular leader among the poor, he is no longer a swing factor to pull along weaker candidates.

Again, on corruption, AAP’s image has witnessed a serious dent, be it on the issue of the liquor scam, the incarceration of many senior AAP leaders, or the spending of a large sum on the chief minister’s residence. There is a growing perception among the middle class that most of the sops and freebies from incumbent parties are bleed­ing it as it is their taxes sustaining this alleged fiscal madness.

Hence, we see that while the middle class is veering towards BJP, it is the lower middle class and the poor who have emerged as the new battleground which must be won over by both BJP and AAP.

COMPETITIVE POPULISM

Delhi is heading for a crucial electoral showdown with AAP and BJP locked in a contest over populist promises. The upcoming election reflects a shift towards transactional politics where voter loyalty appears to hinge on the scale and nature of benefits offered.

Having gained unexpected victories in two state elections (Haryana and Maharashtra) last year, BJP is keen on replicating its winning formula in Delhi which it has not governed in nearly three decades. Its strategy relies on a slew of promises that emulate AAP, targeted at key voter demographics, particularly women and the youth. Among its most notable pledges are monthly payments of ₹2,500 to all poor women, a one-time payment of ₹21,000 to pregnant women, subsidised cooking gas, and ₹15,000 for young aspirants preparing for competitive exams. Addition­ally, BJP promises ₹1,000 per month to underprivileged students pursuing technical or vocational courses.

Standing in BJP’s way is the incumbent AAP which has gov­erned Delhi for nearly a decade through a model of governance centred on welfare. AAP’s new promises include monthly payments of ₹2,100 to all non-government-employed women, financing foreign education for students from underprivileged castes, and financial aid for auto-rickshaw drivers and their fami­lies, including wedding expenses for their daughters. The party has also announced a monthly payment of ₹18,000 to Hindu priests and ceremonial readers of Sikh scripture.

The election underscores the growing discontent among cer­tain sections of society, particularly the middle class, regarding the pervasive culture of freebies. Many view this trend as unsustain­able and believe it reflects an erosion of meaningful policymak­ing in favour of short-term electoral gains. Critics argue that only judicial intervention or legislative reforms can curb this escalat­ing race to outdo rivals with promises of benefits. Nevertheless, in this discourse on freebie populism, AAP is blamed for forcing other parties to contest its turf.

AAP’S ADVANTAGE

AAP’s record on governance has been shaped by its commitment to subsidies and welfare schemes which have benefited its core voter base. The party has allocated over ₹63 billion (8 per cent of its total budget) in the current fiscal to fund populist measures like free electricity, free bus rides for women, and cash transfers. However, these measures have come at a cost. Delhi’s revenue surplus fell by nearly a third to ₹49.66 billion last fiscal, raising concerns about the sustainability of such populist policies.

If the promises of both parties materialise after the election, subsidies could account for 20 per cent of Delhi’s budget, up from the current 15 per cent. This rising expenditure has triggered de­bates about the long-term fiscal health of the city and the growing culture of competitive populism.

Besides the material factor, AAP’s advantage is also on account of the bipolarity of the election since Congress is considered a vote spoiler in most constituencies. Congress cutting into AAP’s core support base, primarily Muslims, Dalits and other poor segments, is a necessary condition for BJP’s victory. Initially, it seemed Congress would dent AAP by splitting Muslim and Dalit votes. However, not only has Congress lost the perception war by being seen as a party lacking the mettle to be a significant player, it is also making more of an appeal among the middle class and constituencies like New Delhi and Kalkaji, a factor more detrimental to BJP that AAP. Also, in our fieldwork we found a solid consolidation of Muslims behind AAP, the high-pitched attempt by Congress and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) notwithstanding.

The contest between AAP and BJP also reveals a fragmented electorate. AAP continues to enjoy support among lower-income groups, women, and religious minorities, particularly Muslims and poorer Sikhs. BJP, on the other hand, has consolidated a sig­nificant section of the middle-class vote along with that of com­munities like Jats, Gujjars and Hindu Punjabis. Poorvanchali vot­ers accounting for more than a third of the electorate are divided along class lines. Traditional Congress voters, disillusioned by their party’s decline, are rallying behind AAP, seeing it as the only viable alternative to BJP. Also, among poor voters, we found more women veering towards AAP than their male counterparts, mak­ing Delhi in sync with recent trends of women emerging as the X factor in Indian elections.

Despite some loss in vote share, AAP is in a favourable position to retain power, bolstered by its better outreach to its core voter base. However, BJP’s aggressive campaign and targeted promises signal that the fight for Delhi will be a close contest. This election is shaping up to be a litmus test not just for Delhi but also for the broader dynamics of Indian electoral politics where transactional promises increasingly dominate the discourse. Thus, despite the stigma of corruption, anti-incumbency, middle-class alienation, and electoral bipolarity, the spatial and demographic structures of Delhi, as well as the prevailing sentiment, appear to give the edge to the incumbent, even if grudgingly.

(The authors are associated with PRACCIS, a Delhi-based research institution specialising in field studies on Indian politics)

AAPanti-incumbencyArvind KejriwalBJPcorruptionDelhi Assembly Election 2025Freebies