High Stakes, High Hopes

FOR LONG, BEFORE THE Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in December 2018, stalwarts Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and Raman Singh were synonymous with the party’s fortunes in these states. There was a reason why this was the case as barring Ra­jasthan where the chief minister’s post has been a revolving door—Raje and Congress leader Ashok Gehlot have swapped the job four times since 2003—BJP scored repeat vic­tories in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Raman Singh won three terms till 2018 and in Madhya Pradesh, but for a 15-month inter­lude, Chouhan has been chief minister since November 2005. It did look like the three top guns, unshakable in their bastions even when out of office, were all but autonomous satraps answering nominally to the party leadership.

All that began to change after BJP’s losses in 2018 which came at a time when the party had a new leader in Narendra Modi and the mantra for change he rode to office was also reflected in surprise choices for BJP chief ministers in states like Maharashtra, Hary­ana, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh (UP). Apparently set hierarchies were no longer taken for granted and much of this was to do with Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s stewardship of BJP as its president during the first term of the Modi government. Possessing a sharp and unsentimental politi­cal mind, Shah prioritised party interest above reputations and this meant the BJP leadership’s authority, blunted during the years the party was out of office, was reinstated in a purposeful and unambiguous manner. The idea was to look to the future rather than rest on old laurels.

None of the three BJP seniors can be ruled out as likely chief ministers should the party win the current round of state polls, but it resisted the temptation to announce any chief ministerial candidate even when conventional wisdom has suggested that a face matters. In early October, speaking at an election rally in Ra­jasthan, Modi said BJP’s face in the state will be the “Lotus” with Raje and other leaders on stage. In Madhya Pradesh, Chouhan has campaigned energetically but has not been named as the likely chief minister despite his four terms in office. Likewise, Raman Singh is contesting his Rajnandgoan seat in Chhattis­garh but has kept a much lower profile than has been the case in the past. BJP’s decision to field Central ministers and MPs in all three states was intended to not only add heft to its poll effort but also dilute the focus on the existing leadership in the three states where it has held sway.

THE ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES WILL disgorge the verdict on December 3, but BJP managers feel the party’s calculated gamble intended to dilute in­cumbency in the case of Madhya Pradesh as also create room for alternative leadership (relevant in Rajasthan and Chhat­tisgarh too) in case the party succeeds will pay dividends. De­spite similarities, the scenarios are different in the three states. Raje’s efforts to forge a ‘working relationship’ have delivered limited results and she has remained adrift of the BJP brass. The occasional efforts of her camp followers to project her have not gone down well either. Yet, Raje’s absence from the centrestage did not result in the emergence of a new leadership that could be pitched to the electorate. Rather, infighting and pettiness marked the state unit and the BJP leadership felt it would be wiser to concentrate on the failings of the Gehlot government. Injecting younger leaders like Rajyavardhan Rathore and Divya Singh, both MPs, into the poll mix aimed to aerate a stale mix. Though he is not contesting, Minister of Jal Shakti Gajendra Singh Shekhawat has been fielded at press confer­ences to counter Congress’ campaign lines. As things stand, BJP leaders feel the state is turning their way despite Congress’ efforts to retrieve an erosion of support—partly a fallout of the bitter rivalry between Gehlot and Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot— through a populist manifesto that tar­gets key voter sections.

There is a lot at stake for BJP. If defending Madhya Pradesh is a major task, taking back Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will also test the party. But the impact of Congress gaining a large state like Madhya Pradesh or Telangana cannot be belittled. It would strengthen the opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance and deliver more resources to Congress

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In Madhya Pradesh, BJP functionar­ies agree that the contest has run close but contend the party has ended with its nose ahead of Congress. “We will form the government,” said a leader without being drawn into offering numbers. The consensus seems to fa­vour a modest win rather than a run­away victory although the mood in sections of the state BJP is more upbeat. Seeking a fifth term in office has its ob­vious challenges, all the more when BJP re-entered office with the help of the Jyotiraditya Scindia faction of Congress which then had to be accommodated in ministerial appointments and on other perches. Though this ‘merger’ was not without its rough edges, the dissonance has been in check and Scindia waited patiently before he was made a Union minister and has campaigned hard during the state election. Despite the wages of incumbency, BJP leaders feel the party may have done enough to cross the finish line in front.

By most counts, the Chhattisgarh election is a toss-up and the reason is BJP’s re-emergence after being dormant for long. Raman Singh’s equations with the BJP leadership seem on an even keel and Shah addressed a rally in his constituency early in the campaign. The former chief minister is seen to have the smarts to counter Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel’s tactics of nurturing voting blocs like paddy farmers and targeting swing seats to win elections. BJP is counting on the discontent within influential communities like the Sahus over communal inci­dents, tensions within tribal groups over conversions, and chinks in Congress’ populism. Yet, predictions seem harder in Chhattisgarh where results like Congress’ landslide in 2018 have been rare and victory is more often sealed by narrow mar­gins. In 2013, Raman Singh led BJP to a win by a margin of 0.7 per cent votes although the party won 10 seats more than Congress.

After early promise in the months leading to the election in Telangana, BJP was seen to have lost steam as its state leadership remained enmeshed in controversies. Former BJP state president Bandi Sanjay Kumar is seen as a popular leader but allegations of not being a team leader dogged him. There is a view in the party that it might have been more useful to have continued with Sanjay, taking the negatives with the plusses. Now, Modi’s prom­ise to the Scheduled Caste (SC) Madiga community to fast-track the process of sub-categorisation of quotas has given BJP some bounce. Estimated to be 7 per cent of the population, Madiga lead­ers have pledged support to BJP but the party has a lot of ground to cover. There is, however, growing conviction within BJP circles that the incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi is on its way out and Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s (KCR) long reign could be ending. Going by BJP’s calculations, the party would not like the BRS leader to be replaced by a Congress nominee. It remains to be seen if BJP can make the Telangana contest truly triangular even at this late stage.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE HE BECAME prime minister, Modi has led BJP’s campaign, stump­ing his way through the poll-bound states with a mes­sage that has been a mix of Hindutva and development themes, with localised content relevant to the states going to polls. He has conflated Congress with a weak approach to countering terrorism and lax law and order, spoken of individual jihadist acts like the beheading of a tailor in Udaipur, incidences of ri­oting in Rajasthan and communal violence in Chhattisgarh. He has responded to Congress’ promise to conduct caste enumerations by con­tending that the party has not really cared for backwards or the poor and ac­cused it of deliberatively running down India’s achievements. His reference to Rahul Gandhi as “murkhon ka sardar (leader of fools)” without naming the Congress leader was about Gandhi’s claim that mobiles in India are mostly made in China. The line may well prove to be a defining one, whichever way the elections go. Both Modi and Shah made frequent references to the plans to install the Ram Lalla idol in the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, which meets with popular approval at BJP rallies. Looking to blunt Congress’ efforts to repeat its Karnataka success, the prime minister has pointed to the decision to lower the cost of cooking gas and specific promises in BJP manifestoes to provide cheaper cooking oil, sugar and pulses as part of the Public Distribution System (PDS) foodgrains for beneficiaries. Congress governments in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have left people at the mercy of anti-social elements, criminals and rioters as Congress pursues its “appeasement” politics, he said. He pointedly added that cooking gas was cheaper in neighbour­ing Madhya Pradesh. In his campaign speeches in Rajasthan, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has contrasted the alleged slackness in dealing with criminals with his no-tolerance policy in containing lawlessness.

The mix of state and national issues, targeted campaigning, and infusion of new candidates and central leaders are all intended to forge narratives that diminish incumbency and provide new leadership. The strategy is not without its risks but a proactive stance on a turning pitch could yield better results than a defensive approach

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There is a lot at stake for BJP in this round of state elections usually held a few months before the Lok Sabha polls. If defend­ing Madhya Pradesh is a major task, taking back Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will also test the party. State elections are discrete verdicts and need not have a bearing on the national mood as was the case in 2019 and even earlier in 2009 when Congress returned to office with an increased tally despite having lost of a string of state elections.

But the impact of Congress either retaining office or gain­ing a large state like Madhya Pradesh or Telangana cannot be belittled. It would strengthen the opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance’s morale and deliver more resources to Congress that will be use­ful in contesting the Lok Sabha election. While BJP appears to be trailing in Telangana, it is making all efforts to ensure wins in the three north Indian states to deny the opposition the suc­cess of a split verdict that leaves Congress with important gains. The clever mix of state and national issues, intended to present BJP as a party with a nationalist vision, targeted campaigning and infusion of new candidates and Central leaders are all in­tended to forge narratives that diminish incumbency and pro­vide new leadership. The strategy is not without its risks but a proactive stance on a turning pitch might yield better results than a defensive approach that could delay but not prevent the inevitable—something the Indian cricket team found out to its cost in last Sunday’s (November 19) ODI World Cup final. Modi seemed to have internalised the cricket mania that had gripped the nation, telling voters in Rajasthan that Gehlot and Pilot were like batters looking to run one another out rather than building a future for the state.

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Rajeev Deshpande

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