Battle Plan 2024

A DAY AFTER ELECTION results to five state Assemblies saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) return to office in four, including a morale-boosting win in Uttar Pradesh (UP), Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Gujarat on a visit that was at once a victorious homecoming and also the start of a new campaign, this time to defend his home state due for polls later this year. The moment was not casual and signalled the prime minister’s determination to solidify BJP’s dominance of its fortresses like Gujarat and expand its influence on less familiar terrain ahead of 2024 when he will seek an unprecedented third term in office. His visit came a day after he told party cadre at the BJP headquarters in Delhi that UP has shown the way, debunking insulting references to caste four times in a row beginning with the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. He was clearly buoyed by the results that saw BJP getting 49 per cent votes even in the first phase of the UP elections in the ‘Jat belt’ that was supposed to be the staging ground for the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal (SP-RLD) challenge to BJP, a caste putsch that failed to materialise.

In 2017, BJP survived a scare in Gujarat, winning by a slender majority of seven seats, its total of 99 one short of 100 in a 182-member House. Congress notched up 77 seats and while it did not pull off an upset, it did better than anticipated. BJP’s vote share of 49.1 per cent was an increase over 2012, but the party faced the makings of a perfect storm: Gujarat minus Modi as chief minister, trader anger over implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), a revolt by a section of Patidars over quotas and allegations of being pro-big business. BJP won its sixth consecutive victory, providing the party an opportunity to recoup. Keen to extend its hold and remain a step ahead of the competition, BJP changed the entire cabinet, including then Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, in September last year, bringing in a raft of new faces. So far, BJP managers believe the radical move is working and Modi’s recent visit serves to underline that he will supervise the campaign for all practical purposes, looking to ensure a strong result. The prime minister will be at the forefront of BJP’s campaigns ahead of the next Lok Sabha polls in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and four Northeast states, with the just-concluded state elections conclusively establishing his paramountcy in the electoral field where he towers over contenders. At a time when governments across the world are facing harsh questions over issues like the handling of Covid and economic hardships, BJP is receiving renewed endorsements. Global opinion trackers like Pew and the Edelman Trust Barometer show that trust in institutions, including government, remains high in India. The ‘secret sauce’ might well be a grounded approach to policies and governance that Modi spoke about when he called on experts and commentators to abandon “old records (of the gramophone type)” and see the changes sweeping the country. In contrast to the controversies and even public resistance surrounding the Covid vaccination programmes in several nations, India has covered a substantial 81.5 crore of an eligible 94 crore adult population with a double dose. Right from the start, when the government ignored calls for widespread testing at a time when laboratories and test kits were in short supply, choosing to concentrate on people arriving from abroad, crucial calls have worked. As was the case, government officials point out, in designing economic packages that avoided outright loan waivers and instead offered working capital support. Modi amplified the theme when he said his policies are grounded and evidence-based, reflecting the needs of the people.

WHILE BJP’S SUCCESS in UP, where it won 273 seats in a House of 403, has grabbed the headlines, its victory in Uttarakhand is worth close attention given that the party faced serious anti-incumbency having shuffled three chief ministers. The resounding win is due in good measure to Modi’s strenuous campaign in the closing stages of the polls. He spoke for more than an hour at Almora on February 11, promising to make good shortcomings and warning that the alternative in the form of Congress was worse, representing a return to the bad old ways of family raj and corruption. The choice of Pushkar Singh Dhami helped and even though he lost his seat, the chief minister presented a youthful and energetic face and one with a popular connect.

Punjab represented a tough task given that BJP had for long been second fiddle to the Akalis, but even there, Modi’s efforts to portray sympathy and understanding for Sikh traditions were intended to heal the wounds created by the farm agitation as much as to boost BJP’s prospects.

In a detailed speech on the evening of March 10, even as counting for the Assembly elections wound down, Modi set out his political vision for the party and government. The lack of emotive issues like Ram Mandir had been noted by commentators during the UP campaign and such references remained absent in his remarks as he addressed the party cadre. Rather, his focus was on the need to improve and expand transparent delivery of welfare and governance benefits to the poor. He pointedly underscored that the task was not easy, drawing on his experience as Gujarat chief minister, to say the ‘last mile’ remained a hurdle in reaching the underprivileged. “But I am not one who will sit quietly until benefits reach the doorstep of the poor,” he said. It was an extraordinary pledge, one that meant a sharpening of an approach to governance that BJP feels delivered the winning punch in UP. Under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the state government maintained a relentless intensity in delivering a range of welfare and financial benefits as part of state and Central schemes that range from free rations, housing, water connections, scholarships, old-age pensions to assistance to small businesses. It was because of these efforts, BJP leaders believe, that the ravages of two years of Covid and complaints about unemployment did not cause the sort of discontent that would allow Mandal parties and caste identities to stage a return to the centrestage as was the case since the early 1990s until 2014. According to people familiar with the prime minister’s considerations, the principle of antyodaya, or the last man in the line, will be the centrepiece of governance that also seeks to ‘unify’ beneficiaries rather than divide them along caste lines. It is not that Modi is unaware of caste realities and their relation to deprivation, particularly in the case of backward classes and Dalits (apart from tribals). But the model he emphasises differs in that he looks to counter caste-based outfits like SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) through an alternative ‘empowerment’ formulation that provides backwards and Dalits space in the Hindutva tent. This requires a dialling down of upper-caste identity even as these sections remain key supporters of BJP. Balancing the applecart is challenging, and Modi would have been only too aware during the campaign that the Hindutva-plus-development revolution cannot be seen as permanent. Now that he has led BJP to a gratifying victory, the prime minister is clearly looking to press his advantage and shut out rivals before the next election.

Does that mean cultural battles or ‘polarising’ debates are a thing of the past? The difference may lie in emphasis rather than any blanket avoidance. Days after the election results, Modi met the makers of the film The Kashmir Files and praised their efforts at placing before the public a narrative that was suppressed and said that an entire “ecosystem” had been rattled. It is interesting to note how often the prime minister has referred to the ‘ecosystem’ that he says represents the intellectual underpinnings of Congress. In an interview during the campaign, he had said Congress was not likely to change as its ecosystem would not allow it. Over the years, he has used the phrase to take potshots at the main opposition party internalising a fringe anti-BJP worldview, mainly scripted by the party’s ideological critics, without pausing to consider that the formulation lacks popular traction. The ideological and political ‘war’ with the Left establishment will continue; indeed it acts as a catalyst in charging up the party cadre, but the message crafted for the broader mass of voters is likely to have other focal points. Apart from the elaboration of a pro-poor mandate, Modi has been uninhibited in his attack on “parivarwad (dynastic politics)” and his call on “gyanis (knowledgeable ones)” to consider the ill effects of dynasty in politics is a strong political mantra other than being another dig at the ‘ecosystem’ that chooses to ignore inconvenient questions in its quest to prop up a challenger to BJP.

This then will be another major pillar for the ruling alliance’s political strategy that draws on the rising turbulence in Congress post-polls to argue that successive defeats have failed to instil any accountability in the party. Modi took care to drive home the point at a meeting of the BJP Parliamentary Party that efforts to secure tickets for kith and kin are not welcome. Arguing that dynasty is co-identified with self-interest, the prime minister looks to target the main opposition and several regional parties as “anti-development”, a theme that worked in the states that recently went to polls. The track gains credence with an evocative recollection of scams and scandals that dogged previous Congress governments in Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. To add to the mix, BJP counters the charge that it is ‘communalising’ elections by pointing to the ‘appeasement’ politics of rivals that looks to fuel insecurities among minorities and represents inherently divisive caste appeals.

MODI HAS ALSO staunchly defended anti-corruption actions, including cases filed against political figures in the opposition. He has linked the backlash from affected political parties to the ills of dynastic politics, saying that the two are sides of the same coin. He frequently brings up the point in his public speeches, asking whether action against the corrupt be stalled and saying that there is a conspiracy to taint investigative agencies. His likely reference is to actions such as those of the Maharashtra government which has filed cases against police and Enforcement Directorate officials. These are seen as a response to investigations against leading figures in the ruling coalition in Mumbai. The upshot, say well-placed sources, is that the action of anti-corruption agencies will proceed and may well gain pace. There are several pending investigations that include cases relating to the Congress leadership and the political point that BJP seeks to derive is that it has, in contrast to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), ensured corruption in high places does not become a defining feature of the government. The prime minister’s credibility on this count remains high and is also to be seen in the perception about leaders like Adityanath. The belief that the chief minister is engaged in sincere efforts to improve the common lot rather than feathering his own nest helped offset possible anti-incumbency due to woes related to uneven development. The perceived track record of the alternative SP and BSP regimes on this count might have strengthened the drift towards BJP. As at the Centre, the state government was able to successfully claim it has used technology such as Aadhaar-linked direct benefit transfer (DBT) and reforms in recruitment to government services to dramatically improve transparency in governance and its efficacy. The constant reference to impartial administration of law and order by Modi did offer obvious contrasts to policing under the SP government. The reference to riots during SP’s tenure and concerns over the safety of “daughters and sisters” was a clear pointer to allegations about a sectarian and communal bias in policing. The charge found takers due to the experience—attested to by voters in media interviews—of the power enjoyed by political mafias.

The election results have helped sharpen BJP’s attention to the importance of women’s votes that the prime minister said helped cement the party’s victories. “I bow to the women of our country. Their contribution to our success has been huge,” he said. Alongside women, he thanked young voters after the elections. The presence of women and youth at BJP rallies was a standout feature and their vote was key to the party overcoming the odds in states like Uttarakhand. The Centre has stepped up its planning for programmes such as POSHAN that aims to boost nutrition for children, pregnant women and lactating mothers. The sub-optimal results of the national family health surveys with regard to nutrition have been taken note of and the government is likely to double down on this score in the months ahead. The successes of schemes like Ujjwala and Mission Indradhanush (immunisation) are building blocks for a larger outreach to women. The various initiatives have helped build trust in BJP’s ability to deliver say party leaders who point out that voters have been ready to give the party another chance even on issues like employment, seen as a work-in-progress, based on the assessment that things are improving and that the party offers better prospects than its rivals. Women are a very important part of BJP’s plans as it stresses its commitment to providing a safe and secure environment and participation in the economy.

There are risks, as is always the case, in any scenario. The war in Ukraine, if it carries on well into the year, can generate serious pressures on the economy, Modi has indicated, pointing to India’s dependence on both Ukraine and Russia for various supplies, including defence components, and on the rise in commodity prices. The situation on the Line of Actual Control with China could deteriorate. Or the Covid pandemic might resurge just when it appeared that the worst was over. All these situations constitute a real and worrisome challenge that can extract a political toll on any government. But the prime minister has vigorously advocated an “India First” approach and Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) which incorporate a Made in India emphasis. This can be expected to be a dominant theme in the remainder of Modi’s term and will be complemented by reforms intended to promote a startup culture. Big policy initiatives take time to show their impact, all the more with states being essential partners, but Modi and BJP will hope there is enough happening on the ground to convince voters the country is moving in the right direction and that a shared imagination about the future becomes a binding covenant.

Assembly election 2022Atmanirbhar BharatIndian economyNarendra Modistart-upsUttar Pradesh