Vaccine Wars

If ever there is a war over vaccine or cure for Covid-19, its origin should be traced to Donald Trump, who fired the first salvo against his bosom friend Narendra Modi when the Covid-19 death dance had not yet become as grave as it is today. Trump told Modi in early April 2020 that the US might retaliate if India did not export the anti-malarial drug Hydroxychloroquine despite his personal request, saying that he would be surprised in case of a negative outcome as New Delhi had good relations with Washington. The provocation was an innocent banning of the export of the drug for fear that it might be needed in India, in the absence of any other effective drug. India quickly supplied a huge quantity of the drug to the US, which is being stored in warehouses in the US as Trump switched from Hydroxychloroquine to Lysol as cure for the coronavirus.

If wars are born in the minds of man, a war over the coronavirus began the moment it was found that only a new vaccine would be able to save humanity. The virologists and epidemiologists went on a war-footing to get to know the coronavirus, other scientists went helter-skelter looking for some substance that will destroy the protein shell of the virus, which could so far be done only by soap or alcohol. Better soaps and better sanitisers were found in the war for prevention. Deaths occurred in that search also as some discovered that sanitisers could intoxicate as much as illicit liquor did. New products, new prices and new myths created a subterranean war among pharmaceutical companies, distributors and advertisers. There was no evidence that the new products had done better than the old ones in use.

Next was the ‘mask’ war. A simple handkerchief covering the mouth and nose, which could have done the job, began to be replaced by material ranging from muslin cloth to pure gold studded with diamonds. This war will not be over till the mask becomes obsolete as masks are the most visible ornaments now and a great preoccupation of fashion designers. I thought transparent masks would be the best, but it looks as though the partially covered crescent is more attractive than the full moon. People probably are saving on lipstick and mouthwash by using the masks. The greatest advantage is that you do not need to smile unnecessarily at people. The criminals in police custody being paraded on streets do not have to find something to hide their identity.

The war over vaccines has reached a decisive stage and a veil of secrecy is over national and international efforts to find the right vaccine and to market it. The whole story will not be known till the success of each brand is established. Governments have already taken over distribution and sale in various ways and so the black market must have also been developed. Once the efficacy and safety are established for a particular brand, the others will try to bring out more sophisticated brands. Hoarding and black marketing will be the order of the day. The companies are lying low because certification and distribution are in the hands of the governments. I would swear by a Chinese vaccine if it comes out because if they really created the virus, they may know the antidote already. Otherwise, how did Beijing escape Covid-19 and Xi Jinping go around without a mask, without being infected?

Scientists and governments cannot decide who will get the vaccine first. The case of an Indian minister who became Covid-positive after taking the vaccine mystify many as it is not clear whether he hurried to become immune through some subterfuge that misfired. The claim that the minster risked his own life for the sake of humanity will not sell in a cynical world. Once the vaccine becomes a status symbol, whatever standards are set for distribution will be upset by vested interests.

The war over the vaccine may even lead to thefts and efforts to secure it by force or threat of use of force. There is no question that the health workers should get the highest priority, but many may volunteer to be health workers just to get priority for getting the vaccine. Excluding the elderly may be justified as they can stay in quarantine and read, write, participate in webinars and watch movies, as they are not expected to contribute to the economy. But the children should be included right away if the right dosage and adequate safety precautions are available.

The battle for preservation of the vaccine and the method of administration is still being fought. I saw a video of the New York governor demonstrating and explaining how to open a carton of tiny vaccine vials containing five doses each. The biggest challenge is to keep the vials in very low temperatures. Dry ice packets line the sides of the box and it can be opened for less than ten seconds just twice a day. The vials are taken out, de-frozen and diluted and administered within six hours. After the first dose, the recipient has to come back in 21 days for the second dose. To do this procedure for millions of people around the globe in varying climatic conditions needs an army of trained people and sophisticated equipment. It will be nothing short of a war. I had suggested long ago that the UN should set up a ‘Health Keeping Force’ with red berets for such contingencies. This could be revived to help countries which are ill-equipped to cope with the demands.

To add to all this is the threat of terror and law and order challenges. Imagine terrorists holding up stocks of vaccine and making demands or unruly people complaining about discrimination and invading the laboratories. Human depravity and ingenuity combined might create challenging situations for which the world has to be prepared. India just used the vaccine as a weapon by refusing to attend a meeting of foreign ministers to coordinate vaccine use as a protest against the Canadian Prime Minister’s criticism of the way India was handling the agitation of farmers.

No traditional war, hinted by Trump’s threatened retaliation against India for denial of vaccine or medicine may take place, but we should be ready for conflicts of all kinds till the last man is vaccinated or the herd immunity sets in. There was a grotesque cartoon showing Martians arriving on Earth to find only one famished man in the whole of the Earth. He explains what happened, ‘Nobody bothered to vaccinate me!’ This may deter some people from desperately trying to get vaccinated forthwith.

About The Author

TP Sreenivasan

TP Sreenivasan is a former diplomat

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