Turning Away from Türkiye

As relations between India and Türkiye sour further in the wake of the Erdogan regime’s diplomatic and military support to Pakistan, bilateral trade has come under increased scrutiny for likely Indian actions. Trade between India and Türkiye has been declining. A look at the top 10 trade items shows India’s exports to Türkiye declined by almost 15 per cent and imports fell 17 per cent in recent months. The main imports include crude petroleum, gold, fresh fruits, iron and steel, and pulses. Trade in all of these is tepid. Imports have shot up in the aircraft sector and in gold brought into India. Similarly, India’s exports in the aircraft sector have risen though total value of trade is modest. Indian tourists have begun to turn away from Türkiye but improved air connectivity has encouraged people to travel to the country. There is keen interest in whether Indian carrier Indigo’s leasing agreement with Turkish Airlines, due for what would have been a routine renewal by the end of May but for the Pahalgam terror attack and the India-Pakistan hostilities that then broke out, is approved. India’s diplomatic engagement with Türkiye has not been proactive, with the envoys posted to Istanbul being middle-of-the-road civil servants. One of them had welcomed Bollywood star Aamir Khan’s meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife, quite oblivious to the negative reaction back home. Khan’s visit had drawn sharp reactions in view of Türkiye’s anti-India actions on issues like removal of Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir and military sales to Pakistan. As of April 2025, bilateral trade stood at close to $8 billion, tilted more in favour of India.

Closing the Trade Gap

Amid the flux caused by US President Donald Trump’s claims about having mediated an end to India-Pakistan military tensions, an Indian delegation was in Washington, working out details of the bilateral trade deal between India and the US. The word is that discussions are making good headway despite the tough timeframe of getting things to fall in place by September when India is expected to host the leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). Trump is keen to ink a deal and hopes for big reductions in tariffs. The template of the India-UK trade deal may offer clues about how India will proceed. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, who was in the US, is quietly confident about the talks.

Truth Slips Out in Pakistan

As Pakistan mimicked visits of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to address frontline troops, a few Pakistani voices are articulating a poorly kept secret—that Pakistan was unable to inflict much damage on India while suffering strikes. A few journalists and YouTubers admit Pakistan came a poor second. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif did give the game away, saying he was woken in the middle of the night by Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir and informed about Indian attacks on the Nur Khan airbase not far from Rawalpindi. The myth of a Pakistani ‘victory’ might be essential to Munir’s credibility and continuance in office.

Trapping Yunus

 

The head of Bangladesh’s interim government, Muhammad Yunus, may have to keep regretting his jibe about India’s Northeast being “landlocked”, a suggestion that translates into a threat that mobility from the region to and from the rest of India is dependent on the neighbouring country. After having watched and waited, the Modi government became convinced that Bangladesh is deliberately reducing movement of goods from India. This, when many goods from Bangladesh, including the Hilsa fish, depend on the Indian market. The Indian decision to increase restrictions on land movement of garments and carbonated drinks will be followed by more unless Yunus takes note of India’s concerns.

Stalin In a Hurry

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin wrote to non-BJP chief ministers protesting the Centre’s decision to challenge the Supreme Court’s ruling on “deemed consent” and timelines for governors and the president to take a decision on legislation proposed by states. It is evident that Stalin views the issue as an opportunity to sharpen DMK’s identity plank and corner AIADMK. The only point of cooperation with the Centre is DMK agreeing to leader Kanimozhi leading one of the parliamentary delegations explaining India’s Operation Sindoor.

Omar Abdullah is Right

In the Mehbooba Mufti versus Omar Abdullah spat, the National Conference leader may be more right in the immediate context. It is unclear why Mehbooba chose to take exception to Abdullah’s remarks, hoping the Tulbul navigation project, stuck for decades, gets going now that India has decided to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The project would help manage lean flows of the Chenab and encourage commercial trade and power generation. It has been stalled since 1987 on flimsy grounds advanced by Pakistan that it violates the IWT. It is hard to understand Mehbooba’s claim that talking about it amid tensions with Pakistan is not wise. After all, whose interests must prevail?

Without Warning

In his extensive briefing to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri made it clear that no “warning” was given to Pakistan as suggested by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. The idea was preposterous and a misrepresentation of the statements issued by senior government figures that Pakistan had been informed that only terror targets had been hit in the May 7 Indian strikes on LeT, JeM and Hizbul Mujahideen locations. In fact, the Indian Army DGMO’s efforts to reach his counterpart after the missile and drone strikes were angrily rejected with threats of retaliation which, as things turned out, proved to be underwhelming.

bilateral tradeDonald TrumpgeopoliticsMuhammad YunusOmar AbdullahTurkey