The Second Cold War

IN 1991, THE 41-year Cold War ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The US-led West believed it had won the longest war in which not a single weapon had been fired by either superpower.

But had the US really won the Cold War? With the Soviet Union reduced to a rump of the Russian Federation, it appeared so. But appearances can be deceptive. The Russia-Ukraine war shows that the US project of being the world’s sole superpower has hit a geopolitical speed bump—two, in fact.

The first is a resurgent Russia under President Vladimir Putin which annexed Crimea in 2014 and invaded Ukraine in 2022. The second is China.

At the end of the Cold War in 1991, China had a GDP of $0.41 trillion compared to America’s GDP of $6.16 trillion. Its technology was borrowed or stolen from the West. Yet, within three decades, it has emerged as a challenger to the US as the world’s unitary superpower.

Washington realised in the early 2000s, when Putin began expanding Russia’s arc of influence, that weaken­ing Russia terminally was the unfinished business of the Cold War. It first encircled Russia by enlarging NATO to include East European member-states—all former Soviet satellites. It then staged a regime change in Ukraine in 2014, replac­ing Russia-friendly President Viktor Yanukovych.

Cornered, Russia annexed Crimea. As fighting between Russian and Ukrainian loyalists in eastern Ukraine began, the gloves came off. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine happened exactly as Washington had hoped, trapping Moscow in an unwinnable war. This, Washington believed, would end the Cold War of 1950-91 for good and cripple Russia.

Things haven’t gone exactly according to plan. This has led US President Joe Biden to weaponise Ukraine. China though is a complication. The US has itself walked into a trap by bringing together two old communist rivals: Beijing and Moscow.

Instead of terminally weakening Russia in the Ukraine war, the US has helped create a Second Cold War against a new Russia-China axis. China brings its formidable economy and technology to the table. Russia brings its military, war-weary but still reasonably potent.

Biden finds himself in a spot. Ukraine’s appetite for weapons to stop Russia is insatiable. If Biden loses the November 5, 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump, funds for Ukraine will dry up.

Washington is now fighting two battles simultaneously to preserve its global hegemony. The first is the battle to terminally weaken, sanction and isolate Russia—a battle that isn’t going well. The second is to bar China from high-tech chips and other technology with dual military-civil use.

Beijing has responded by pouring funds into developing homegrown chips and creating an entire semiconductor ecosystem. It continues to supply Moscow with key military equipment and supplies.

Mortified at the thought that the First Cold War against the Soviet Union was morphing into a Second Cold War against a Russia-China alliance, Biden warned his European audience during his D-Day visit to Normandy in France: “Putin is not going to stop at Ukraine. All of Europe will be threatened, we are not going to let that happen. The United States is standing strong with Ukraine. We will not, I say it again, walk away.”

Taken aback by Russian advances in the Kharkiv region, though recently stalled, Washington threw caution to the wind. It allowed Ukraine to use advanced long-range American weapons inside Russian territory. This signifies a significant escalation of the war.

In the early days of the war, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky was prepared to sign a peace deal with Moscow. A draft agreement by mediators in Istanbul was ready. Biden dispatched then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to Kyiv to tell Zelensky to fight on. The US project of weakening Russia terminally had not yet been achieved.

Meanwhile, the other two battles the US is fighting in Gaza and the South China Sea are an increasing worry for Washington. The Israel-Hamas war is now in its ninth month. Israel has still been unable to downgrade Hamas’ ability to launch attacks on Israeli soil despite US weaponry.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces serious corruption charges. The moment the Gaza war ends so will his prime ministership. Peace in Gaza is hostage to Netanyahu’s need to prolong the war. But it is the South China Sea, with Beijing looking for the right opportunity to invade Taiwan, that concerns Washington the most. If that happens, the US will find itself deeply immersed in a Second Cold War, more damaging than the First.

AmericaChina-RussiaCold WargeopoliticsUkraine crisisVladimir Putin