Navigating Trump’s America

SINCE DONALD TRUMP’S political campaign for a second presidency gained traction, a deep sense of uncertainty has plagued Washington’s relations with its allies, partners, and friends alike. This uncertainty has intensified sharply in the weeks following his inauguration on January 20 this year. Despite this flux which now characterises the second Donald Trump administration’s foreign policy, a few pockets of certainty have emerged. The early scramble from Trump and his team suggests that Washington’s approach to India may not be very disruptive. Yet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-day visit to the US early in the second Trump administration underscores the conviction that challenges remain.

The Trump administration’s policies haven’t signalled a particularly hostile attitude towards India. In fact, Trump’s meeting with Modi is only his third meeting with a head of the state, the other two being Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Shigeru Ishiba of Japan. As such, Washington has signalled that while it doubles down on tough tariff and immigration policies in its neighbourhood, its external choices will be cautiously prioritised. To some extent, Trump’s external compulsions have been shaped by the current state of the international order where both Russia and China have been unwilling to take Trump’s bait. On the other hand, India is differently aligned with the US in its domestic choices, deeply impacting Indian immigrants and trade.

The visit by an Indian prime minister to the US so early in a newly elected US president’s term is rare and suggests at least two things. First, that the Trump administration is moving at a rapid pace to address the issues that matter to the American economy and interests. Second, the Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership between India and the US remains important in Trump’s order of priorities.

Immigration will be at the top of the chart among the issues at hand during the bilateral meeting between India and the US. In recent days, Trump’s immigration policies have impacted both legal and illegal immigrants in the US. The identification of 18,000 Indians who are living in the US illegally and the deportation of 205 Indians in a military aircraft have stirred sentiments in India. The fate of an estimated over 7,00,000 illegal immigrants may be one of the key issues discussed between India and the US.

In January, the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security and Enforcement held a hearing to assess what the Trump administration can do to restore a robust defence against illegal immigration in the US. For India, it is important that the lingering uncertainty with regards to the visa status of students, working professionals and those who have entered illegally be resolved at the earliest. By accepting deportations, India has signalled that it is a country which is ready to play by the rules. In the end, it may neither be the intent nor perhaps possible to deport all of the illegal immigrants of Indian origin from the US. For Trump, signalling is more important and that may have served its purpose. However, India should be ready for Trump’s asks, should he temper his stance on sending back illegal immigrants to India.

Tariff will be another key issue to be discussed during the Modi-Trump meet in Washington. On tariff, Trump’s biggest concern is lessening trade surplus with countries. Both India and China have big trade surplus over the US. The Trump administration’s decision to impose a sweeping 25 per cent tariff on foreign steel and aluminium on the eve of the visit by the Indian prime minister may largely be intended for China and Mexico but is certain to have impacts for India.

Trump’s tariff strategy follows a broadly tripartite logic: to reduce America’s trade deficit, bring American companies back home, and restore US dominance on the global stage. However, economists agree that higher tariffs may not directly reduce the US trade deficit. On the contrary, they could drive up prices in related sectors, such as the car industry in response to steel sanctions. There is also broad consensus that, on the other two fronts, the US would be better served by working with its allies rather than pressuring its own companies and foreign governments. Antagonising friends, partners, and allies may not be the most effective approach for the Trump administration. However, this may simply be part of a carrot-and-stick strategy to extract concessions from other countries. For India, as a key strategic partner of the US, will be looking for possible exemptions on tariffs even as Trump remains pivoted on China, Canada and Mexico.

The expanding Indian diaspora in the US, Trump’s pro-India policy team, and Delhi’s unique positioning between a friend and an ally for Washington provide India with strategic leverage over other major economies when dealing with the US. In the Indo-Pacific, India remains the only country capable of counterbalancing China’s growing influence. Moreover, Trump has not signalled any shift away from prioritising Indo-Pacific security. On the contrary, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba’s recent visit to Washington reaffirmed Trump’s commitment to regional security, underscoring the continued focus on countering China’s assertiveness. China remains America’s primary competitor—not just economically, but also in the technological domain. Trump recognises that the geopolitical trajectory set in motion during Biden’s “decisive decade” is at a critical midpoint, and the next phase will be defined by the strategic choices his administration makes.

For the Trump administration, India is not just a strategic partner but an essential anchor in the Indo-Pacific security architecture. Beyond defence cooperation, India plays a crucial role in connectivity projects linking the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East—an area where Trump may be

contemplating a regional agreement on the back of peace efforts between Israel and Hamas. India’s strong ties with key Middle Eastern nations position it as a potential partner in initiatives such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which aligns with both India’s and the US’ broader economic and strategic interests.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Washington also presents an opportunity for India to delineate its own red lines while diplomatically managing US expectations. It will be crucial to assess and prepare for Trump’s potential asks, which could include increased Indian investments in the US, trade concessions, and reductions in domestic subsidies. While India may have already made some adjustments in these areas, indicating a degree of flexibility in negotiations is important to dealing with the largest economy of the world and a key strategic partner.

Benjamin NetanyahuDonald Trumpgeopliticsimmigration lawNarendra ModiShigeru Ishibatrade tariffworld politics