Cabinet Hustle

The torrential rains over the weekend of July 8-9 in Delhi and its surrounding areas as well as in much of north India, in particular the hill states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, held everyone’s attention and dominated news headlines. But the thoughts of a certain group of people lay elsewhere. The national capital’s grapevine was buzzing with talk of a possible shuffle of the Union Council of Ministers and many, including political pundits, were busy trying to figure out what was in the works. There were those who had the most skin in the game—aspirants as well as incumbents pondering their fate—and were particularly keen on reading the straws in the wind. Figuring out Cabinet changes has been very challenging as the deliberations hardly ever leak. This time the more informed speculation is that the shuffle, if it does happen, may have some bearing on the BJP organisation. It is being felt that appointments of senior party functionaries need to be carefully reviewed as they are often key to preparing state units for elections. In past NDA governments, too, there were movements from government to organisation. With the Lok Sabha polls not too far off, radical changes in the Union Cabinet would seem unlikely. In any case, the weekend passed without the proverbial pin dropping and anxiety levels dropped even if they have not subsided. The testing times could well be back when Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns from his visit to France.

Ukraine Assault Stalls

Informed reports from the Ukrainian frontline indicate that Kyiv’s much-awaited counter-offensive is not making much progress. The defensive lines put in place by Russian forces are holding and the Ukrainians are making marginal progress, hampered by lack of air support for even localised operations. As the war grinds on, military experts reckon that Ukraine will find it increasingly difficult to recruit fresh troops from a limited catchment area while Russia can yet call up another round of compulsory enlistment. According to the Hudson Institute, which collates information from various sources, the Ukrainian strategy of staging frontal assaults is not paying off. Modifications of Leopard tanks have helped Ukrainian armour, reducing the losses that the forces suffered a few weeks ago, but Kyiv clearly needs to do more. The possibility of getting US ballistic missiles might make a difference and also escalate hostilities that are currently spread over a relatively narrow front of about a 100-150km. As of now, the battlefield appears complicated with the flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, creating large tracts of waterlogged land posing further hurdles for movement of heavy armour and making attempts to cross the Dnipro river to reach Crimea even riskier.

Judging NCP Split

Though the split in NCP is yet to be taken up by the Election Commission (EC), the poll body will soon have to apply its mind to the contesting claims from Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar’s and his uncle Sharad Pawar’s factions. Of the tests that EC can apply is an assessment of the control of either side on the organisational structure of the party. This might seem to be tilted in favour of Sharad Pawar as a recent show of strength saw the presence of most party district heads. Yet, the question whether the party constitution was being adhered to and if inner-party democracy was being practised is not easy to answer. In the recent Shiv Sena split, the Uddhav Thackeray faction claimed the loyalty of the organisation, arguing that the views of delegates or functionaries reflect the sentiments of the rank and file. The deposed chief minister might have had a point, but changes in the party constitution that made the Sena’s ‘decision-making’ body merely a collection of individuals appointed by the Sena chief hurt the claim. EC found that the Sena had failed the test of inner-party democracy. NCP’s case is bound to be examined by both the commission and the courts but the issue may well be finally settled on the basis of which faction commands the loyalty of
most number of legislators. Here, the Ajit Pawar faction has an upper hand as more MLAs are likely to cross over to his camp.

New Bollywood

The film 72 Hoorain is attracting notice similar to The Kerala Story some months ago for its theme that explores the promise of rewards in the hereafter for suicide terrorists. The bait has always been suspect, not least because the clerics and preachers who propagate to recruit suicide bombers rarely, if ever, tread the path they advocate. While the film has, not surprisingly, drawn a polarised response, the interesting fact is that it had received a censor certification back in 2019 itself. It is not, as might appear, a recent film inspired by the success of The Kerala Story. What seems to have changed is the preparedness of distributors to take up films with sensitive themes previously considered risky propositions. Bollywood remains the most pecuniary-minded of institutions and producers and distributors are seeing profit and even acceptability in such projects. All this is very disheartening for cultural commissars who have sought to set the ‘right’ narrative through films that concentrate on depicting divisions in Indian society and the alleged rise of ‘majoritarian’ politics. The popular acceptance of films like The Kashmir Files and The Kerala Story and concerns over a social-media backlash have dampened the enthusiasm of this set of ‘progressive’ filmmakers, at
least now.

Engaging Myanmar

The outgoing Thailand government’s efforts to re-engage ASEAN with Myanmar are being carefully watched by India which has itself kept channels open with the junta in Naypyidaw. So far, Thailand has met with limited success as Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia stayed away from the informal talks. Thailand shares a long border with Myanmar and there are important trade and economic linkages. Its efforts to restart ASEAN’s contacts with Myanmar are seen as also influenced by its proximity to China which remains one of the military junta’s biggest supporters. India is not supportive of the coup in Myanmar that was followed by Aung San Suu Kyi being jailed on what are seen as trumped-up charges but is wary of ceding space to China in a country that borders its Northeast. India continues to hope ASEAN will be able to persuade Myanmar’s generals to loosen their grip on the country and allow political activity to restart. The muted response to Thailand’s bid to bring Myanmar out of the cold indicates that most ASEAN nations are not willing to normalise relations and back a China-inspired engagement yet. This is good news for India that is looking to limit China’s influence in its neighbourhood.

BollywoodFrance visitMyanmarNarendra ModiNCPUkraine crisis