Beyond Caste Calculus

SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS the news of its three-state sweep was trickling in, a senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader and former spokesperson was asked what was his party going to do to counter Bihar’s caste census in the coming General Election. Replied the leader, “The BJP is a thinking party and would come up with the right response.”

If anyone was in doubt about BJP’s thinking on caste, they did not have to wait long. Modi’s victory speech that same evening, at the end of the counting, already fired the first salvo. In less than 50 seconds, Modi laid out an alternative to the current caste calculations, especially following Bihar’s hurriedly notified caste survey.

Is BJP a thinking party? Absolutely. When it comes to how to fight and win elections, it has no match. Not only in its fierce drive to power but also in its organisational and strategic innovations. In these very Assembly elections, they pushed their single-leader strategy to new limits. Even at the risk of losing crucial states in the Hindi belt.

Instead, the opposite happened.

Both former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje of Rajasthan and incumbent Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh were sidelined. A slew of national leaders was brought in to contest state elections. This turned out to be a political masterstroke to checkmate dissidents. In the case of Madhya Pradesh, the only anti-incumbency, as one wag put it, was within the party itself. But did this harm Chouhan or BJP? On the contrary, a surge in sympathy for the popular three-time chief minister brought BJP back with an even more convincing majority of 163 out of the 230 seats.

Additionally, the regional satraps, having eaten humble pie, have been shown their place by the central leadership. The myth that Modi alone can win elections in northern states has only grown stronger. At the time of this column going to press, the chief ministers of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh have yet to be announced.

Politics in India, BJP has demonstrated yet again, is a battle of wits. Smart parties, with better organisation and stronger narratives, come out on top. But above all, it is strategic thinking, anticipation rather than reaction, that makes the difference. And the Modi-Shah combine is the shrewdest duo in the game.

I have argued in previous columns that the quota system has now come to be inflected, if not infected, by the conventional caste system. Instead of serving to alleviate the most backward sections of our society, as our Constitution intended, it now includes powerful middle and other castes and communities, which are not only numerically but economically powerful. Competitive backwardness has resulted in reservations turning into India’s new caste system even as the old one continues as a viscous rump.

“In this election, many attempts were made to divide the country into castes. But I was continuously saying that for me only four castes are the biggest castes in the country,” said Modi. But it was not the four traditional varnas of Brahmin, Kshatriya, Vaishya, and Sudra, that the prime minister was referring to. Instead, it was about the four solid vote banks that added the crucial numbers to BJP’s victory kitty: “When I talk about four castes, I mean our women power, our youth power, our farmers, and our poor families.” He added, “It is only by empowering these four castes that the country is going to be strengthened.”

Did Modi totally upend the conventional caste calculus? Not really. “Today, a large number of our OBC [Other Backward Class] friends fall in this category. Today, a large number of our tribal friends fall in this category,” said Modi. He was, thus, having the best of both worlds. SCs, STs, OBCs have continued to gravitate to BJP letting go of their traditional patrons, Congress, and other more specialised caste parties.

Modi knows this only too well: “And in these elections, these four castes have shown a lot of enthusiasm about the schemes of BJP and the roadmap of BJP. Today, every poor person is saying that he lives on his own. Today, every deprived person has a feeling that he has won this election. Today, every farmer says this, every farmer has won this election. Today, every tribal brother and sister is happy thinking that the victory for whom he voted is his own.”

Modi was combating caste fatigue in elections. He wanted to give something more than quotidian quotas to the common voter: “Today, every first-time voter is saying with great pride that my first vote has become the reason for my victory. In this victory, every youth who dreams of a better future is seeing his victory.” But the biggest single factor in adding to his party’s vote share was the fierce Modi loyalty of women voters. “Every woman is seeing her victory in this victory.” Nari Shakti (women’s power) and ladli behnas (adorable sisters), as they are called in Madhya Pradesh, won the day for BJP.

But, as his admirers and supporters are never tired of reiterating, Brand Modi extends even beyond: “Every citizen who wants to see India as a developed nation in 2047 is considering it as a success,” Modi himself put it. From Darbhanga, Bihar, commenting on the BJP juggernaut’s onward march during the Assembly elections, noted political strategist Prashant Kishor said, “The four reasons BJP got votes and won the poll in three states are: first, Hindutva is their [BJP] ideology; second is the new nationalism; third is BJP’s financial and organisational muscle power; and the fourth is Lavarthi Yojna (beneficiaries’ programmes) of the party.”

Nowhere did Kishor mention the counter-caste consensus of BJP, nor the enduring appeal of Brand Modi. Moreover, south of the Vindhyas, as seen in Telangana, neither Hindutva nor BJP-style nationalism seems to work. Similarly, the politics of freebies and populism, practiced by both BRS in Telangana and Congress in Chhattisgarh, did not reap them the kind of dividends they expected. The fact is neither losing party lost much of its vote share; it is only that BJP increased its vote share in all four states.

Kishor, we must remember, was not in the fray this time, advising none of the key players. In India’s diverse and complex polity, ideation and innovation are not very highly prized. Rather, tried and tested formulae of money and muscle power, caste and linguistic identity politics, feudal and family loyalties, and economic sops and handouts have held sway.

But BJP, led by Modi, has spiced up this potboiler by adding new ingredients. Hope, confidence, prosperity, clean government, and vikas or development. And now, a new notion of caste too. Modi had earlier asserted, soon after the Bihar survey was notified, that the only caste he recognised was that of the poor. Indeed, it is the poor across caste, community, region, and language, who feel that their best long-term prospects lie with the least corrupt, most nationalist party, with the only leader who has little in it for himself or his family, Narendra Modi.

The growing challenge to traditional notions of caste hierarchy is not only drawn from political mobilisation, social movements, affirmative action, and Constitutional rights. Or from religious conversion, inter-caste marriage, urbanisation, and globalisation. It has come from BJP and Modi himself. Modi has turned his four castes of women, youth, farmers, and poor from basket cases to the pillars of India’s development and democracy. He has ensured that they are given priority and respect in the nation’s political process.

Without trying to replace or abolish the prevalent caste-based politics, Modi’s idea of the four estates transcends it to create a new sense of unity and identity among a large swathe of Indians. Modi believes that by focusing on these four catchment areas of the populace, India can overcome the divisive and destructive effects of the old caste system and foster a more harmonious and prosperous society. Modi also hopes that by appealing to these four estates, he can expand his political base and win the support of a large and diverse electorate.

In the end, beyond the conventional caste calculus of social exclusion and economic deprivation, Modi has shown that it is the enduring appeal of seva and sushasan— service and good government, which will lead to vikasit Bharat or a developed India. This, in essence, is “Modi ki Guarantee.” And it is likely to give Modi’s BJP its eagerly heralded hat-trick.

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