Asia’s Arc of Democracy

IN COLD WAR 2.0, a new alliance of democracies is the best guarantee of a rule-based world order, as well as peace and prosperity in our own region. I call this new alliance the Arc of Democracy. With the US withdrawing, despite all of President Donald Trump’s bluster and bullying, from its role as the sole arbiter of the post-World War II international arrangement, a new set of regional powers, alliances, and enforcement arrangements will have to emerge. In Asia, the world’s largest, most populous, and, now, economically most significant continent, what would ensure such a rule-based order? It would be the Arc of Democracy, to use a Biblical metaphor, taking the world out of troubled waters to a better future after the flood of global insecurity and uncertainty.

If we take the Indian Ocean ecumene as a logical trans-Asian sea corridor, then such an Arc would extend from South Africa to Japan. Even farther, in the Asia-Pacific, it would include Australia and New Zealand. But the pivot of this Arc of Democracy would be India. In addition, Israel would play a crucial role. Why? Because, with US patronage, it is right now in the process of creating a new Middle East. The question for us is whether India can rise to the occasion to be the fulcrum of such an Asian Arc of Democracy?

Apropos Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent meeting of February 13, we might remember his memorable equation or, should I say, speculation: MIGA (Make India Great Again) + MAGA (Make America Great Again) = MEGA. Some outstanding questions and issues notwithstanding, the promise of Indo-US partnership is indeed mega. With a growing, powerful, and rich resident Indian diaspora, the US will find it increasingly difficult to oppose or subvert Indian interests. With best and brightest of its young, so to speak, in voluntary US custody, India will also find it hard to move into the Chinese orbit in the impending Cold War 2.0. After all, the US is still the world’s favourite destination, including for emigrating Chinese. India also needs US technology and markets.

Looking at the rapidly evolving global political landscape in the light of these developments, we are, as Henry Kissinger famously said, already in the foothills of “Cold War 2.0.” That is why the idea of the Arc of Democracy in Asia emerges as a vital strategic framework. This concept posits that a coalition of democratic nations could serve as a bulwark against authoritarianism, ensuring a rule-based international order, in addition to fostering peace and prosperity across the region. Especially when President Trump’s second term may lead to US isolationism rather than exceptionalism. But more importantly, as the most populous nation in the world in addition to the biggest democracy, India would be the swivel of this Arc of Democracy.

That is because India stands at the heart of this proposed Arc, not just due to its geographical, strategic, or economic importance, but also owing to its uniquely diverse, pluralistic, and democratic culture and civilisation. India, as we are now proud of show-casing to the world, is the mother not only of spiritual democracy but also of civic and political democracy. With its burgeoning economy, military capabilities, and increasing geopolitical clout, India is uniquely positioned to lead or significantly influence such a democratic coalition.

For India to assume such a role, we would have to shift from our traditional policy of non-alignment and the deep distrust of the US and the West. We would have to participate more proactively in regional and global security architectures. This involves not only enhancing our naval capabilities to secure the Indian Ocean but also leveraging our soft power through cultural diplomacy, economic partnerships, and strategic alliances. India’s diplomatic relations with both Western democracies and Asian neighbours would provide a foundation for this role, although challenges in domestic politics, economic disparities, and border tensions with neighbours like China, Pakistan, and now Bangladesh, complicate this pathway.

No doubt, the success of the Arc of Democracy would rely heavily on the strength and coherence of strategic partnerships. India will have to invest much more in strategic alliances in order to exploit regional dynamics. Japan, with its technological prowess and economic might, would be an essential partner, particularly in the maritime domain. Australia and New Zealand, sharing democratic values and security concerns in the Asia-Pacific, would add depth to this alliance. Indonesia, as the most populous Muslim country in the world, would play a critical role. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, though not exactly democracies, would support the West Asian flank.

The inclusion of Israel introduces a crucial strategic dimension in such an Arc of Democracy. Born just a year after India in 1948, its tried, tested, and vibrant democratic traditions and impressive track record of governance, are now buttressed by unmatched military might and strategic superiority as far as the Middle East is concerned. However, Israel’s inclusion also brings complexities given the ongoing regional conflicts and its relations with neighbouring countries.

The challenges to operationalising the Arc of Democracy are numerous. Diverse and competing national interests are only the first hurdle. Each country has unique strategic, economic, and political interests that might not always align. For instance, while India and Japan might share concerns about China’s rise, their approaches and capabilities differ significantly. Indonesia, as a Muslim country, may also hesitate in supporting actions against Islamist extremism in other parts of the world.

Internal political dynamics in the many democracies in such an Arc would push their respective governments in different directions. Political upheavals or shifts towards populism could also undermine the cohesion of the Arc. There are external pressures too: China, certainly, perhaps Russia, might view this alliance with suspicion or as a containment strategy. China is already building its counter-alliances and has staked claims on territories in several adjoining countries, including India, leading to increased regional tensions. An Arc of Democracy, to be really functional, would require not just political or strategic but also economic integration, which involves complex trade agreements, investment treaties, and mutual economic growth strategies.

But the biggest obstacle lies in our baggage and legacy of nonalignment. We would need to shift from unproductive, even unsuccessful nonalignment, to strategic multilateralism, thence to principled and profitable realignment. This would not result in losing our autonomy, but enhancing our safety and security. The crucial question is, are we ready to move on? Or will the vestiges of failed idealism coupled with insecurity continue to stand in the way of robust realism and profitable pragmatism?

ChinacoalitiondemocracygeopoliticsIndian economyJapanpolitical democracy