A Good Month at a Time of Global Gloom

Collection of Goods and Services Tax (GST) touched an all-time high of Rs2.37 lakh crore in April 2025 clocking 12.6% growth on a year-on-year basis, surpassing the previous record of Rs2.10 lakh crore in April 2025. That was not the only good news. The government’s monthly economic report for March, released late last month, showed the rate of inflation at its lowest since August 2019 at 3.34%.

The report sounded upbeat and said that, “Despite the risk posed by global headwinds, the domestic economy continues to show signs of resilience backed by domestic drivers. High-frequency indicators suggest the domestic economy’s robust performance in the last quarter of FY25.”

These positive developments come at a time of heightened global economic uncertainty. The US economy shrunk by 0.3% in the first quarter of the calendar year even as American consumer spending grew at a sclerotic pace of 1.8%, the slowest pace of growth since 2023. The Indian government’s monthly economic report (March 2025) also noted that Trade Policy Uncertainty Index increased by 101.3% in the first quarter of the year (Q1 FY25) compared to Q1 2024, indicating erosion of relative global economic stability between 2021 and 2025.

Data on consumer confidence, released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in April showed that consumer sentiments rose in March—when the latest iteration of the Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) was carried out—compared to the last on in January this year. The Current Situation Index (CSI) went up from 93.7 in January to 95.5 in March. The CSI compiles responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level in the current period. CSI below 100 is considered to lie in pessimistic territory. But the March reading is the highest one since March last year. The Future Expectations Index (FEI), that aggregates responses for the period one year ahead, stood at 122.4 in March, compared to 120.7 in January.

Interestingly, the RBI released data for the Rural Consumer Confidence Survey (RCCS) in April. The central bank has been conducting the survey since September 2023 but released data for the first time in April this year. In this case, the current situation is in optimistic territory at 100.1, the largest print of the index since March last year. Similarly, the future expectations clocked 125.9 in March 2025, again the highest since March last year. The survey collects responses from people living in rural and semi-urban areas of all states and three Union Territories (UTs). This is the part of India where the bulk of its population lives. The fact that this part of the consumer confidence survey is positive tells its own story. Usually, it is the urban economy that does well and the rural part is a laggard. But in recent months and the past one year, the rural story is outshining the urban one.

agriculturefarmersIndian economyNews Briefrural economyWeb Exclusive