The face of fear

A post Al-Qaeda Islamist group in Iraq has the potential to cause serious global economic disruption

Forty Indians have been abducted by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Mosul, a city that was captured by the terror group on 10 June 2014. What happens when victorious militants set about to govern? Iraq is yet to fall completely to the ISIS but an indication of how they would go about ruling can be seen in Mosul.

ISIS came out with a charter for Mosul where they introduced themselves as soldiers of Islam, responsible for reviving the glory of the Islamic Caliphate. Women were told to dress appropriately and remain inside homes. Shrines would be destroyed, tobacco and alcohol completely banned. No gatherings or flags except that of the Islamic state would be permitted. The earlier government’s soldiers and policemen were told to repent with special places set up for it. Those who stole would have their hands cut off. It seems like the Taliban all over again, taking civilisation back to a medieval age.

As an independent group, ISIS is not even a year old but ever since they have been on the march in Iraq, one city after another have come under their control and they are now within Baghdad’s reach. After Mosul, Tikrit has fallen and they are about to take control of Baiji, which has Iraq’s largest oil refinery. Earlier ISIS was a part of the Al-Qaeda but they have now severed ties with each other. This was after ISIS expanded to Syria and unilaterally co-opted another terror organization there.

The man who is responsible for this victorious new avatar of ISIS is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, a PhD in Islamic studies. When the US occupied Iraq, he was part of the resistance movement that Al-Qaeda launched and became a key figurehead. He was arrested in 2005 and spent four years under US custody. When Iraqi government released him in 2009, he rejoined the Islamic State in Iraq, as the Al-Qaeda was known then in the country, and the very next year became its leader.

A number of political events came together to aid the ISIS. The US pulled out of Iraq leaving a weak government made up of the Shia majority. The ISIS exploited the Sunni insecurity to build its ranks. Syria too erupted in civil war and the group went over the border to capture territories there. That was when its name changed from Islamic State in Iraq to Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Having consolidated power in Syrian territories, it began the Iraq offensive. As cities fell, it used resources like arms, money and people from those fallen cities to fuel further offensives. Their numbers range anywhere from 6,000 to over 10,000.

What seems obvious is that ISIS has evolved to being more than a terror group launching suicide attacks. An article in The Atlantic reported that even though they summarily execute people for apostasy, in Manjib, a Syrian town under ISIS control, they had institutions like a Consumer Protection Authority office that ‘forced shops to close for selling poor products… ISIS has also whipped individuals for insulting their neighbors, confiscated and destroyed counterfeit medicine’. They fill potholes, operate post offices, install power lines and most importantly are ‘able to offer a semblance of stability in unstable and marginalised areas, even if many locals do not like its ideological program.’

Now they are on the brink of creating enormous turmoil across the world. If Iraq falls, the price of oil will go for a tailspin since it holds the second largest reserves in the world. And that means global inflation and its cascading effects.

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