Ayodhya’s Echo in Bihar

It was not supposed to be like this. For the last several years, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been trying to win over ‘Pasmanda’ (backward) Muslims through several means, most prominently by forcing his BJP ally to keep Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi out of the state. Now, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) leader’s delicate arrangement has come under intense pressure as politics in the state enters a brief period of suspended animation ahead of the verdict on the Babri Masjid-Ram Janmabhoomi case.

It was not supposed to be like this. For the last several years, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been trying to win over ‘Pasmanda’ (backward) Muslims through several means, most prominently by forcing his BJP ally to keep Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi out of the state. Now, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) leader’s delicate arrangement has come under intense pressure as politics in the state enters a brief period of suspended animation ahead of the verdict on the Babri Masjid-Ram Janmabhoomi case.

Nitish Kumar’s recent Delhi visit may have ended the latest tug-of-war between the JD-U and BJP on whether Narendra Modi would be allowed to address election rallies in Bihar, but the Ayodhya verdict may upset this whole understanding.

“What the JD-U fears most is the possibility of Modi trying to make his way out of Gujarat in case the emotional temperature goes up following the judgement,” says a JD-U leader.

Nitish’s uneasiness about the turn of events after 24 September comes not merely from a fear of civil strife that may follow the verdict. Such a fallout may be handled with the use of state machinery. But what will make things unmanageable for Nitish is the prospect of the BJP opting for an aggressive posture in favour of a Ram temple following the verdict. That will only activate its Hindutva icons with renewed vigour—a possibility that may create real trouble for Nitish.

In fact, ever since the two parties formed a coalition government in Bihar in November 2005, Nitish has consistently kept his distance from Narendra Modi, scuttling every move of the BJP to bring the Hindutva mascot to the soil of Bihar. During the Lok Sabha election campaign last year, Nitish had told BJP leaders to keep Modi away from Bihar. From time to time, thereafter, Modi’s name was tossed up by one BJP leader or the other, but the proposal was shot down by Nitish on each occasion.

For Nitish, who has been carefully positioning himself as a well-wisher of ‘Pasmanda’ Muslims, such a distancing from Modi is of utmost importance for his electoral calculations. It has been his way of sending an unequivocal message to the Muslim community that his alliance with the BJP does not mean a strengthening of the Sangh Parivar in the state; rather , it means taming the saffron party. Such a strategy is seen by JD-U leaders as crucial to neutralise the advantage enjoyed by his secular rivals—Lalu Prasad ’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, Ramvilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party and the Congress party. Any change in the BJP’s stance after the verdict may sully this delicate image that Nitish Kumar has been trying to build for himself among Muslims. Any development that forces critical Muslim voters to revert to Lalu Prasad may be fatal for Nitish.

More than any other party, therefore, it is the JD-U that is keenly watching BJP leader LK Advani’s proposed visit to Somnath on 25 September—a day after the Ayodhya verdict. It was from Somnath that Advani had started his Rath Yatra two decades ago to mobilise Hindus for the cause of a Ram temple at Ayodhya. What Advani says at Somnath this time round will have considerable bearing on the fate of Narendra Modi and thus Nitish Kumar.

About The Author

Dhirendra K. Jha