Towards Pakistan 2.0?

At least Sheikh Hasina got to set the terms of her departure from office. The military got her to sign her own resignation, rustled up a chopper, and flew her out to India. A few saris and a brave face, we are told, was all she was allowed to carry with her. Her own father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was not half as lucky even though he stood accused of almost the same sins. On August 15, the day India marks its Independence, Bangladesh mourns its founder’s assassination by an army hit squad. That assassination of unimaginable ingrati­tude in 1975 sent ripples across the subcontinent. Today, 50 years later, almost to the date, Rahman’s daughter has been ousted from power by the very same troika that did her father in.

Indeed, like it did in 1975, the Bangladesh army is working behind the scenes to get the Pakistan-ISI infiltrated Jamaat-e-Islami, stu­dent groups and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP, the principal opposition) to work out a power-sharing agreement.

When this happens, New Delhi will have its hands full.

Sheikh Hasina may have been an erratic democrat but at least she was not a flaming religious incendiary. Hasina did very well to keep Sharia law proponents in the Jamaat-e-Islami and other sundry Islamist obscurantists in check through bans and incarcerations. With the mullahs in check, women found their feet in Bangladesh. Religious minorities, almost always in danger, had at least a sympathetic ear in the administration. That is no longer the case. But most of all, under Hasina, India could breathe easier on its eastern border. The Hasina government’s secular inclinations meant that ties with Delhi were markedly elevated, though not without ever risking the imperative of keeping Beijing on-side.

Now, a much smaller red carpet will be rolled out for India.

Bangladesh is destined to return to a state-of-affairs last observed between 2001 and 2006 when the country was ruled by a coalition of BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami. Incidentally, BNP has been deemed by the US and Canadian courts as an “undesignated tier-III terror­ist organization”. The label was assigned after BNP leaders openly consorted with an assortment of unsavoury Islamist terrorists, religious exclusivists within the ISI sponsored Jamaat-e-Islami. No prizes for guessing what this wicked nexus thinks about Hindu-majority India.

Under BNP-ruled Dhaka, security wonks in Delhi helplessly watched Pakistan’s deep state carve out a niche for itself on Bangladeshi soil. Islamabad played a major role in raising a legion of Islamist extremists dedicated to executing its own anti-India tac­tical goals. Pakistan-nurtured Bangladeshi terror cells would go on to exercise influence as far afield as India’s west coast to deadly effect.

Pakistan has always craved strategic depth against India. It has temporarily lost its staging ground in Afghanistan but is now, with Hasina gone, all set to gain one in Bangladesh.

New Delhi will note with some concern that Bangladesh’s president, undoubtedly prodded by the army, has decided to free Pakistan’s cat’s paw, BNP chief Khaleda Zia.

As the new regime with old faces consolidates power, New Delhi’s diplomatic dexterity will be tested.

It cannot totally abandon its assets and allies in Bangladesh, but it will have to considerably warm towards those it is least compatible with. And Delhi cannot afford to wait and watch.

Its greatest rivals in these parts— Pakistan and China—have a head start. Apart from traditional allies, BNP and the Islamist parties, Pakistan’s ISI has used Chinese money to religiously groom the rampaging student group, the Chhatrashi­bir. In the new scheme of things, the student group, grateful to their Chinese and Pakistani mentors, will have considerable sway over government and decision-making.

As improbable as this may sound, even the Americans enjoy greater rapport than India does with the toxic brew that is the anti-Hasina grouping.

India has vast experience of playing both sides in its volatile neighbourhood, but it has been guilty of not pivoting fast enough when the situation has demanded. An old proverb reminds us “choose your enemies carefully but your friends even more wisely.” The Modi government, which had placed all its eggs in the Hasina basket, will have to internalise this wisdom to, at the very least, prevent the situation from turning against India.

BangladeshgeopoliticsprotestsSheikh Hasinaviolence