Saffron Supremacy

SITTING OUT OF THE Maharashtra government after the Mahayuti alliance’s historic victory was never an attractive option for Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde. But his acquiescence to joining the government is as much about his equation with the man who replaced him as chief minister as it is about political maths. During his meeting with Shinde on December 3, Devendra Fadnavis negotiated an agreement. Shinde would be deputy chief minister and the Sena was as­sured of a fair deal in portfolio allocation. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) brass’ decision to offer the chief minister’s post to Shinde in June 2022 after he split the Shiv Sena was a canny move but also an act of faith. And Fadnavis did set aside his reservations and agree to being deputy chief minister, his in­sights helping to stabilise the alliance and drive important decisions that delivered electoral returns. The trust the partnership engendered smoothened the path to the grand swearing in at Mumbai’s Azad Maidan on the evening of December 5.

It is fitting that Fadnavis returned as chief minister not just because BJP’s tally of 132 MLAs is 76 more than Sena’s. Not only did he work out the deal with Shinde that restored BJP to office in 2022 but he also hammered out an even more audacious one with Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar. Dada’s defection with a majority of NCP MLAs and his join­ing the BJP-Sena government in July 2023 had the imprint of Fadnavis who explained the move as a necessary response to Uddhav Thackeray’s decision to form a government with Con­gress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. Sometimes, politics can mean considering all options, including sub-optimal ones, choosing one and making it work, he suggested. Allowing the Congress- Sharad Pawar-Uddhav Thackeray government to continue would not help BJP’s cause. Not only would BJP’s plea that it was wronged seem a loser’s lament—in fact, a large section of the commentariat quickly absolved Sena of its ‘communal’ past— the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was not a benign entity. The misgivings within BJP ranks proved right as Mumbai Police questioned Fadnavis in a case of alleged phone-tapping. By March 2022, it was clear that MVA was moving to make the BJP leader a co-accused in the case, accusing him of violating the Official Secrets Act. NCP founder Sharad Pawar had an outsize role in the MVA government and he was under no illusion about who was the main threat to the coalition. Despite disclaimers from then Maharashtra Home Minister Dilip Walse Patil, an NCP nominee, the plot began to unfold. Ironically, Walse Patil joined hands with Ajit Pawar, leading Sharad Pawar to rail against him as a “traitor” during the November Maharashtra elections.

Though Devendra Fadnavis had not held ministerial office before becoming chief minister, he displayed a sound grasp of finance, policy and politics. In retrospect, Narendra Modi’s affectionate reference to Fadnavis as ‘mere param mitra’ was a fulsome acknowledgement of the leader’s abilities and contribution to the electoral success

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The MVA government fell about three months later with Uddhav Thackeray resigning as chief minister ahead of a floor test he would lose. Fadnavis was quick to realise BJP could not be a passive spectator after being duped out of its 2019 electoral win. His preparedness to junk conventional thinking was key to working out the induction of the Ajit Pawar faction into the National Democratic Alli­ance (NDA) even though the rough edges of the pact cost BJP in the Lok Sabha polls. Fadnavis repeatedly cited BJP’s narrow loss in the Dhule Lok Sabha seat, pointing out the party’s handsome leads in five As­sembly segments being overturned by the Muslim majority Malegaon segment as an example of “vote jihad”. “We were defeated by only 4,000 votes. This vote jihad was the reason for our defeat there because we were not to­gether,” he said. Fadnavis seized on All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) leader Asaduddin Owaisi’s reverential visit to the tomb of Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb, known for his harsh treatment of non-Muslims, to attack minority mobilisa­tion against BJP. By elaborating Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Ek hain to safe hain (United we are safe)’ slogan, Fadnavis wove a larger narrative at a time when the Maratha quota demand, unhappiness of farmers over crop prices, and suspicions about BJP’s agenda on reservations were clouding the minds of voters. To his credit, Fadnavis had kept BJP afloat when it was forced to sit in the opposition, leading the party’s protests against MVA decisions that delayed projects like the new Mumbai Metro and the Mumbai-Ahmedabad Bullet Train. His push to complete in­frastructure projects after Mahayuti assumed office embellished his credentials as a development-oriented leader.

Fadnavis’ success in completing a full term as chief minister in 2019 was in itself no small feat. He had to deal with a sullen ally in a Sena led by Thackeray who kept sniping at the state government even when its nominees did not skip any meeting of the state cabinet. Fadnavis’ selection as chief minister was unconventional given that the ‘Brahmin’ tag can be a disadvantage in Maharash­tra politics. Sharad Pawar for long represented a Maratha-led po­litical consensus that often enough targeted the ‘Peshwa’ order, a broadside against Brahminism despite the community’s modest political relevance. In 2016, Pawar remarked that BJP’s decision to nominate Sambhaji Raje, a descendant of Chhatrapati Shivaji, to Rajya Sabha turned on its head the historical precedent of Chha­trapatis appointing Peshwas as prime ministers.

Maharashtra politics is as cut-throat as expected in a state with multiple power centres. But Fadnavis comes across as an affable leader who can work out relations with dissimilar people, focusing on common interests rather than differences

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Fadnavis sidestepped the jibe about “Brahminical rule”, saying he was a mere “sevak (servant)” of the Chhatrapati and nomina­tions to Rajya Sabha were made by the prime minister and the president. “My role is that of a letter carrier,” he had said. After the 2019 fiasco, Fadnavis was lampooned for his frequent “Mi punha yein (I will be back again)” comment during the campaign. The gritty politician is back; perhaps wiser for the experience. The script would not have changed if he had avoided the iteration but even BJP poll managers concede that the assertion was not needed.

Fadnavis’ ability to work with Ajit Pawar, a leader he once attacked for alleged corruption, is not just about there being no permanent foes in politics. The deal with NCP was in the works for long with Sharad Pawar being party to discus­sions. As long ago as 2004, in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections that BJP lost, the party was in talks with Pawar over participating in the government at the Centre. Maharashtra politics is as cut-throat as might be expected in a large state with competing political heavyweights and multiple power centres. But Fadnavis comes across as an affable leader who can work out relations with dissimilar people, concentrating on common interests rather than differences. The untimely death of BJP stalwart Gopinath Munde saw the party turn towards him and the leader from Nagpur seized the opportunity with both hands. Under his leadership, BJP has provided opportunities to cadres from all walks of life and social backgrounds. He is at times accused of shrinking the prospects of rivals in BJP, but the discus­sion does not adequately recognise the serious shortcomings of the leaders in question. While he can be sharp and relentless in pursuit of a politically advantageous position, Fadnavis rarely gives offence, making him difficult to dislike. Though he had not held ministerial office before becoming chief minister, he displayed a sound grasp of finance, policy and politics. It is not surprising that his name was doing the rounds for the next BJP president before the election results. In retrospect, Modi’s affec­tionate reference to Fadnavis at his post-result address at BJP head­quarters in Delhi as “Mere param mitra (My very good friend)” was a fulsome acknowledgement of the Maharashtra leader’s abilities and contribution to the electoral success. There would be no twists to the script this time round.

To his credit, Fadnavis had kept BJP afloat when it was forced to sit in the Opposition, leading the party’s protests against Maha Vikas Aghadi decisions that delayed projects like the New Mumbai metro and the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train

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AFTER HE REVOLTED against the leadership of Sonia Gandhi and formed NCP in the company of PA Sangma and Tariq Anwar, Sharad Pawar did not wilt as many who broke with the grand old party did. Though his clout became more regional, Pawar left Congress with no option but to share the spoils of office with him, even winning two seats more in the 2004 Assembly election. The veteran has a justifiable reputation for being a political mastermind whose moves are near-impossible to decipher. The politics he dominated was also marked by a silent pact among major leaders of all hues—they would not step on one another’s primary turfs. This changed after Fadnavis became chief minister in 2014 and took the battle with all seriousness to the Pawar borough of Baramati although he was aware that success would be elusive. He began a clean-up of cooperative banks that was the backbone of political power and patronage in the state’s sugar belt where Pawar ruled the roost. In his own way, Fadnavis adopted Modi’s ‘total politics’ where systemic change, rather than tinkering and corner deals, was the mantra. This discomfited leaders within the BJP fold too, and was certainly at odds with the Sena leadership that advocated Hin­dutva but was less ardent about the nitty-gritty of governance. Fadnavis was prepared to do the hard yards, seeking signature foreign investment and reworking the ways of Mantralaya where pork-barrel considerations were often the norm.

THE BJP-SENA’S SUCCESS in winning the 2019 Assembly polls was proof that the new model worked and Thackeray’s short-sighted decision shocked Fadnavis who believed the ally would not leave the saffron cor­ner. The now deposed Sena chief lent an ear to aides who warned that playing second fiddle to BJP would be the end of the party. Thackeray failed to consider that BJP had offered more seats to Sena in the 2014 Assembly polls which he spurned. It could not be Fadnavis’ fault that BJP won 122 seats to Sena’s 63, upending for good the traditional equation between the two parties. Aware of Maharashtra’s history of social reform movements, Fadnavis grasped the need to articulate the demands of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Dalits and tribals and frame policy for the socio-economically weaker sections.

On occasion, Fadnavis does indulge himself. At rallies he warned opponents that whatever “Deva bhau (Brother Deva)” says, he does. “And what he does not say, he definitely does,” the leader added for good measure. As events since 2019 show, politics in Maharashtra cannot be taken for granted and Fadnavis can be expected to work closely with Shinde and Ajit Pawar as all three parties are essential components of a social coalition. BJP’s num­bers confirm its status as leader of the alliance and being just 12 short of a majority will enhance the stability of the new govern­ment. It took a lot of hard work, even if helped by complacency and drift in MVA, for BJP to recover from its losses in the General Election when MVA won 30 to NDA’s 17 seats. Looking to lift the morale of BJP cadres, Fadnavis reminded them the difference in vote shares was less than 1 per cent. But he would be aware that the erosion in the NDA vote share was significant as were the gains for MVA. The trend of the Lok Sabha elections could well have solidified in MVA’s favour, with a splintering of Hindu votes along caste and regional lines disadvantaging BJP. Combining a frontal attack on MVA with a detailed constituency-wise assess­ment, BJP turned the tide back.

The Maratha quota demand was indeed a slippery pole with activist leader Manoj Jarange lining up Fadnavis in his sights. This suited Sharad Pawar and MVA just fine but Jarange made the mistake of first announcing that he would put up candidates and then rescinding the decision. The Sharad Pawar NCP was con­cerned that Jarange’s candidates would divide votes to BJP’s ben­efit. But going back on the decision did not work either. There was an element of confusion among his supporters in Marathwada while the OBC mobilisation in favour of BJP was decisive. Getting out of the Maratha quota trap was nothing less than a Houdini act. Fadnavis not only made good his escape but sprung the trap on his opponents who were left to rue their missed chances and depleted fortunes.

About The Author

Rajeev Deshpande

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