Kingmaker dream over, Gowda & Son biggest losers

Finishing a distant third, Janata Dal (Secular) has lost a big chunk of its vote and seat share, and with it hopes of playing kingmaker or even being the monarch as was the case in 2018.

From winning 37 seats and over 18 per cent vote share in 2018, it was leading in only 22 seats as of 1 pm, with its vote share hovering around 13 per cent. With a consolidation of Ahinda votes in favour of Congress, the regional party seems to have lost out on crucial Muslim votes as well as the Kannada identity pitch. The loyalty of its core Vokkaliga voters might have just about brought in 20-odd seats but this too has diminished along with the desertion of other voters.

In fact, in prestigious seats like Hassan – where JD(S)’ H P Swaroop, a first-time candidate, beat BJP’s sitting MLA Preetham Gowda – JD(S) managed to win by just about holding onto Muslim votes. Analysts say the last-minute gambit by Congress of promising action against the Bajrang Dal could have swayed Muslim votes in its favour. The results indicate that while this may have been a factor, the minority votes were always strongly backing the party they felt was most likely to defeat BJP.

Congress has gained about 5 per cent vote share as compared to 2018, winning 43 per cent of votes polled. BJP has meanwhile held on to its vote share of about 36 per cent, even though it is only ahead in 66 seats–the result of a more polarised fight with Congress.

Dubbed a Vokkaliga party for the support it draws from the community, JD(S) cannot wish away the strong Vokkaliga leadership in Congress, especially as DK Shivakumar, who jointly led the party’s campaign along with former chief minister Siddaramaiah, is a chief ministerial hopeful. While Shivakumar won with a margin of over one lakh votes in Kanakapura against BJP’s R Ashoka, Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil Kumaraswamy lost to Congress’ Iqbal Hussain in Ramanagara in what is a big shock to the party. The seat had been with JD(S) since 2004. Nikhil had already lost to independent Sumalatha from the Mandya Lok Sabha seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.

Disputes between Kumaraswamy and brother H D Revanna are being cited as a reason for the party’s precipitous decline. While Kumaraswamy won from Channapatna, the future of his party hangs in the balance as elections in Karnataka become two-cornered. “This defeat is not final, my struggle will not stop, I will always be with the people,” he tweeted in Kannada. The Old Mysore region went the Congress way even as BJP and Congress were neck to neck in Greater Bengaluru. Congress won eight seats in Mysore district, with BJP winning Krishnaraja and JD(S) bagging Chamundeshwari and Hunsur. The neighbouring district of Chamarajanagar too saw a clean sweep by Congress.

Apart from family rivalries, JD(S) has lost its shine among voters who do not seem to associate it with the son-of-the-soil interests that patriarch HD Deve Gowda once leveraged very successfully by taking issues like sharing of the Cauvery waters with Tamil Nadu and declared himself as the “humble farmer” who rose to be Prime Minister. Under the leadership of Kumaraswamy, the party came to be seen more as a power-sharing outfit as when it led the coalition with Congress briefly after the 2018 election.

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