Pakistani army will in due course have a pact with Imran Khan: Christine Fair

In the wake of an American news report quoting a diplomatic cable that a US State Department official encouraged the ousting of Pakistan’s then prime minister Imran Khan from power using a no-confidence vote last year, the country is battling a serious political and economic crisis. Ahead of the elections three months away and with now-jailed Khan disqualified from contesting polls, Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar has been appointed the country’s caretaker prime minister. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent tweet that he expects the new regime — which assumed charge after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stepped down ahead of the polls – “to protect” democracy has kicked up a row.

One of the world’s foremost Pakistan experts, C. Christine Fair, who is Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, says that the Pakistani army will govern the country through a puppet regime it cobbles together instead of engineering a coup. The American academic who is well-versed in various Indian languages, including Punjabi, notes that the US feels that the military is the only reliable institution in Pakistan. Fair, a best-selling author and an authority on anti-India terror groups such as the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, speaks to Open about the situation in Pakistan where former prime minister Khan is in jail for “corrupt practices”. Edited excerpts:

 A section of American commentators calls it hypocrisy on the part of the US administration to apparently endorse a political coup to overthrow an elected PM (Imran Khan, who cannot now contest polls). What are your thoughts on the situation in Pakistan?

The US has long sided with the military. It propped up every single military dictator from Ayub Khan to Pervez Musharraf. The US thinks the Pakistan military delivers in some measure. Musharraf happily disappeared people at the behest of the United States for example. For those who are shocked by these revelations, I would suggest that they familiarise themselves with a rudimentary history of US-Pakistan relations. The US seems to feel that the military is the only reliable institution in Pakistan. That has been the norm rather than the exception.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has put out a tweet in which expects the new regime led by caretaker Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar to protect “the rights to freedom of speech and assembly”. How sincere is this statement?

It’s always empty talk. It’s particularly empty when the state of American democratic institutions–inclusive of the Supreme Court–has been so compromised.

Where do you think Pakistan is heading? Another period of martial rule?

The Pakistani armed forces will not want a coup as it will then be directly responsible for all of the malfeasance. It will do as it has done, through a puppet regime it cobbles together. I suspect in due course there will be a “samjhota” (accord) with Khan just as there was with the late Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif both of whom went through this process (after they ran afoul of the army). I call it the Pakistan army’s “samjhota sausage”.

AmericaAnwar-ul-Haq KakarC. Christine FairImran KhanPakistanPakistan Armypolitics