Bolts from the Blue

THREE YEARS AGO on May 13, a group of locals in Assam chanced upon an unusual sight in the state’s Bamuni Hills. The area had been receiving incessant rainfall for several days, and in front of them lay a large herd of 18 elephants—five males and 13 females—all dead.

The spot is a hilltop located in Nagaon district. Large herds of elephants are known to traverse the area. There were some burn marks on the trunks and furs of the elephants—some trees nearby also carried signs of having been partially burnt—but apart from these, there were no other signs of injuries or wounds on the animals. The death of such a large herd was a big mystery, and it became the subject of both official inquiries, including postmortems, and research papers in journals.

The elephants, it turned out, had been killed by lightning. Light­ning can strike from above or indirectly through tall trees via side flashes. When it strikes an animal directly, or the ground nearby, it is possible that the energy can subsequently spread along the ground, subjecting other animals and beings within a range of up to 80m to an electric shock. Although it may appear unusual, it was possible that something like this, experts investigating the case explained, had occurred at the Bamuni Hills.

The sheer large number of deaths by a single lightning strike aside, such fatalities should not come as such a big surprise. India has been witnessing a rapid increase in the intensity and frequen­cy of lightning strikes across the country, especially in central and northeast India, bringing along with it a high number of deaths, both animals and humans.

“The answer is simple,” says Sanjay Srivastava, the conve­ner of Lightning Resilient India Campaign (LRIC). “It is global warming.” LRIC, a joint initiative of Climate Resilient Observing- Systems Promotion Council (CROPC) and the India Meteorological De­partment, is one of the few organisations involved in studying lightning in India, and working on reducing fatalities.  According to experts like Srivastava, the rapid increase in temperatures on land and sea surfaces over recent years and increased moisture is leading to more thunderstorms and lightning. “Our research has shown that with every one degree rise in temperature, there is between seven to 12 per cent increase in lightning across various parts of India,” he says. Srivastava points out that since 2019, they have found that there has been a rise of 57 per cent in lightning strikes in India. “Lightning has gone up a lot in the last decade. We find that in coastal areas, lightning has gone up by something like four times. In hilly areas, it has doubled, and in the plains, it has gone up like three times, broadly,” Srivastava adds.

When it comes to natural catastrophes, much of our focus may remain on floods and landslides, but today the toll from light­ning far exceeds them. According to the National Crime Records Bureau’s (NCRB) Crimes in India Report 2022, out of the 8,060 deaths caused by “forces of nature”, 35.8 per cent (or 2,887 deaths) were caused by lightning. By comparison, torrential rains and landslides led to 358 deaths.

There have always been large casualties from lightning strikes in India, but this is occurring at a much higher level now. Manoranjan Mishra, a professor of geography at Odisha’s Fakir Mohan University, has conducted several studies examining the lightning phenomenon in India. In his latest paper – which is based on the research and experience of CROPC and Fakir Mohan University, as part of LRIC – and published in the journal Environment, Development and Sustainability, he provides, along with other co-authors, a detailed overview of light­ning-related fatalities from 1967 to 2020.  Analysing details pub­lished by NCRB, he points out that lightning has caused 1,01,309 human deaths in this period of 54 years, averaging 1,876 fatalities annually. But there has been a particularly sharp upward tick in the deaths since 2000. “When you look at the overall trend, the annual deaths are a little over 1,800. But from 2000 onwards, you see this steady increase, going to between 3,000 to 3,500,” he says. “Of course, one reason could be more lightning deaths are being recorded. But climate change is a very big factor.”

This year, experts like Srivastava estimate, over 750 deaths from lightning have already taken place in the country. “This is unfortu­nately going to shoot up over the next few months,” Srivastava says.

The fatalities caused by lightning strikes in India present some peculiar figures. Mishra points out that some areas which receive a high number of lightning strikes annually, for instance some areas in Odisha, will result in a high number of fatalities, but areas that receive similar high numbers of lightning strikes in states like Gujarat will lead to only a few deaths. This is because such areas in Odisha might have a higher number of individuals working out in the farms, while areas in Gujarat might have more people indoors working as traders. There are similar disproportionate numbers when you look at the fatalities according to gender. The percentage of men in total fatalities goes higher in states where women tend to stay home indoors, either because of cultural or occupational norms, such as Punjab and Haryana, which sees men comprising as much as 86 per cent and 80 per cent of all deaths in the states, respec­tively. This is lower in a state like Kerala— with male fatalities constituting 65 per cent and female fatalities 35 per cent—as women there step out more often.

Lightning strikes have gone up glob­ally, but most countries do not register so many deaths. The US has something like 30 deaths annually by lightning strikes, Mishra says, and China around 300. The problem, experts say, is that the government machinery tends to take the issue lightly, only springing into action when a large number of deaths take place in a single day, and even the states that have better response systems to natural calamities, such as Odisha, attempt to deal with it like they would a cyclone.“The problem is that it is the same group of experts who are there in disaster management. They think whatever they did during a cyclone, if they apply the same thing to lightning, the problem will be resolved. But lightning is not like a cyclone. They are two different disasters. Forecasting for lightning is often not very accurate, and the event gives you no response time,” Mishra says. The biggest challenge tends to come from states like Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, experts like Srivastava say, where official bodies at the state and district level to deal with the issue exists, but they find reaching the most vulnerable populations difficult. “The fund is there, the policy is there, and so is the solution. But you have to reach the last man in the village. It has to be at the gram panchayat level. And that is where the challenge lies in these states,” Srivastava adds.

Lightning activity is seasonal. It tends to start with pre-monsoon rains sometime during April, and then goes up, depending upon various regions, during the monsoons between July and September.

While it is challenging to reduce the number of deaths, it is resolvable. “People panic,” Daya Shankar Mishra, a grassroots worker for LRIC, says. “We give them all the advice. But when heavy lightning begins, often they forget everything.”

Although Mishra is based in Jamshedpur, he travels to remote and vulnerable areas across Jharkhand and nearby states like Odisha, conducting campaigns and build­ing awareness about what to do when heavy lightning begins in an area. He rues the fact that most only tend to become alert after fatalities have occurred, and then become careless when no deaths take place in their region. Every few days, he will hop on to his vehicle, and with a loudspeaker attached, drive home his messages.

Individuals like Mishra also help in building safe spaces in areas, for instance, schools, or other spots near fields, where individuals working on a farm can hurry and seek refuge when lightning begins. They also help build simple but effective lightning arresters. One of these involve fix­ing a bicycle wheel rim atop a tall bamboo pole, and then running a thick metal pipe or wire down its length. “The aim is to catch the lighting in the sky, bring it down to the earth through a conductor, and then earth­ing it. So if you install a metal plate on top, use a metal wire to bring the current down, and then you dig to about five feet deep and put charcoal, sand and salt, you create a natu­ral earthing,” Srivastava says. “It is a simple technique that is scientifically correct. It is not of some international standard, but it is local jugaad.” In many of the villages LRIC works with, village gram panchayats have been provided hooters. The moment a black cloud is spotted, Srivastava says, the hooter is sounded and all the individuals working in farms rush to a safe shelter and stay there till the threat is over.

Apart from campaigns conducted by organisations such as LRIC, the country’s meteorological office now also issues lightning forecasts. There are also mobile apps, such as Damini, that track flashes and issue alerts. Some states are also working towards out-of-the-box solutions. Odisha recently approved a proposal to plant 19 lakh palm trees to ward against the problem of deaths due to lightning strikes. According to experts, this may not bring any immediate relief, but since palm trees are believed to serve as good natural conductors, this might prove useful when the trees grow to their full height. In 2022, Mishra started a lab in his department to deal with the issue of fatalities to lightning in Odisha. Mishra and colleagues synchronise data available from different software and applications, and provide forecasts and advisories, which are then pushed out into various social media platforms and groups on WhatsApp. They also train volunteers from different areas to spread the message on how to deal with lightning strikes, and have these messages played out on auto-rickshaws to remote and vulnerable regions.

“We do whatever we can to help,” Mishra says. “Lightning is growing to be a big challenge. And sadly, not everyone has realised this currently.”

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