No Face-Saver for China

The tough decisions taken in the aftermath of the bloody clash between Indian and intruding Chinese troops at Galwan in June 2020 have endured. This will be the fourth winter since border tensions erupted that thousands of troops will remain mobilised at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and in the depth areas. The friction points of 2020 have been vacated with the formation of buffer zones. The obstructions in the Demchok area of Ladakh remain, but they are of older vintage and will take more time to resolve. After disengagement at friction points in eastern Ladakh, the larger objective of de-escalation has not progressed. Part of the reason is that India has refused to present China with any ‘face-saver’ to facilitate a quiet withdrawal. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has repeatedly stressed that peace on the borders is a non-negotiable prerequisite for a restoration of normal bilateral relations. While China again denied regular visas to Indian athletes from Arunachal Pradesh, India is hardly issuing visas at all to visitors from China and this has brought business travel to a grinding halt. In the circumstances, a withdrawal from the remaining face-off sites will look just that—a withdrawal. Indian forces are preparing for the coming winter and keeping an eye out for fresh Chinese activity. Over the last few years, a higher on-ground presence and technology has reduced PLA’s ability to spring nasty surprises although the nature of the unsettled border cannot rule out more attempts like the one thwarted at Yangste in Tawang in December last year. Yet, as India improves its border infrastructure and therefore its ability to move troops quickly to a site of intrusion, some of the gaps are being closed. The Army has been further authorised to take necessary steps in the event of an emergent situation. Although Army commanders will avoid escalatory action, they will react if confronted with an aggression. This is a subtle change in the border dynamic, introducing a more pro-active element in the Indian response intended to deter PLA’s ‘occupy and squat’ or ‘salami slicing’ strategies. It is still a work in progress, but the odds along the LAC are more even than earlier.

Myanmar Refugees In Mizoram

Mizoram is one of the states going to the polls according to the schedule announced by the Election Commission and its proximity to Manipur makes it a more sensitive matter from a security point of view. Soon after the military took charge of Myanmar, the flow of refugees shot up and Chief Minister Zoramthanga played the populist card and asked the Centre to change its policy and not send the displaced people back. The slack monitoring of the border led to large inflows of people and soon illegal villages were noticed in wooded areas. The role of illegals from Myanmar is continuously coming to light in the violence in Manipur, with drug smuggling adding to the problem. With polls round the corner, Zoramthanga has refused to implement the Centre’s order to collect biometrics of people who have crossed over from Myanmar, an essential requirement to ensure they are not issued Aadhaar cards or accommodated with documents like ration cards which can then be used to enter voter lists. Zoramthanga’s stance is loaded with risk as not all who have come to India are guided by pious thoughts or concerns of personal safety alone. In any case, keeping track of refugees or non-nationals is a priority given that in the past Rohingya settlements were found as far away as Jammu. The issue is likely to be in sharp focus during the campaign and can be a polarising one despite ethnic linkages on both sides of the border.

Immunity and Duty

The Supreme Court clarification on the immunity enjoyed by legislators for actions in the House is significant as it removes protection accorded for corrupt acts, such as a cash-for-votes case. Interestingly, the Centre supported the move, backing the minority opinion in a previous case that the apex court adjudicated. The court’s view means legislators will be liable to face the law if a bribe is accepted irrespective of whether they actually voted in a particular way. Second, while upholding the right to free speech, the court protected elected representatives in voting as per their wish even if this amounts to violation of the whip and can result in disqualification. This makes a legislator’s right to vote in a state Assembly or Parliament an inalienable right and rules out pre-emptive steps as in the case of the controversial 2016 Uttarakhand trust vote where nine Congress MLAs who had declared their intention to oppose the Harish Rawat government were disqualified. Oddly enough, the speaker’s decision was upheld by the high court and the MLAs did not vote and the Rawat government was saved. The apex court has now made it clear that an MLA or MP has the right to vote as per their wish. Horse trading does muddy trust votes but there is no substitute for a floor test as the final arbiter of a government’s majority and legitimacy.

Gujarat’s Progress

The recent Delhi roadshow ahead of the latest edition of Vibrant Gujarat was, as expected, a packed house with business and media turning up in large numbers. The presentation on the development of the Dholera special investment region showcased how some 920 sq km of land, 100km from Ahmedabad, is being turned into a new, modern, smart city which will be a global manufacturing and trading hub. Indian, British and American firms are developing an ICT-enabled hub with a new cargo and passenger airport at a location that sits favourably in respect of much of north India. Dholera will have a Metro link to Gandhinagar via Ahmedabad as well. There is encouraging news that revenues from industrial development are reaching village panchayats as well. In the Sanand industrial area, during the period 2012-13 to 2021-22, Bol village received the highest tax revenue of more than ₹13 crore, followed by Hirapur with ₹3.95 crore, Charal with ₹1.97 crore, and Shiawada with ₹1.31 crore. These funds are accruing by way of professional tax that has followed acquisition and development of land. The Gujarat scenario shows how the state has made rapid strides even as many others continue to discuss caste surveys and debate why a certain community is only 3 per cent and not 5 per cent of a state’s population.

Reforming Multilateral Banks

One of the last engagements of India’s G20 presidency, a meeting of finance ministers in Marrakesh, has just taken place. The subject under discussion, the reform of multilateral development banks, is vexed but has seen some advance with the Larry Summers-NK Singh report backing changes in the way these institutions lend to developing nations and distressed economies. India is keen on ensuring a deeper agreement within G20 on the fundamental changes required and recommended although the grouping does not take executive decisions. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman placed this high on her agenda despite a busy domestic calendar as it is a crucial part of India’s Global South advocacy.

GujaratIndia-China relationsIndian ParliamentMizoramMyanmar RefugeesNational PoliticsTawangYangste. LAC