Navigating the Trumpverse

DESPITE BEING A self-declared global broker of peace, US President Donald Trump’s favourability rating is the lowest of any US president in modern history. According to the latest YouGov poll, Trump’s favourability rating is (-)13 per cent compared to former President Barack Obama’s (+)12 per cent and former President Joe Biden’s (+) 6 per cent.

Trump has alienated America’s traditional allies in Europe, embraced Russian President Vladimir Putin, insulted Canada and bombed Iran. When he came to power, Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day. Instead, the conflict has grown more brutal in its 41st month.

Trump promised to turn Gaza into a Middle Eastern Rivera. That plan remains suspended as war rages in the region. China is quietly allowing the US to sink deeper into the quagmire of endless wars in the Middle East. That suits Beijing’s long-term objective of supplanting Pax Americana with Pax Sinica.

As Adam Roberts of The Economist wrote: “China, a far bigger threat to America in the long term, is bound to become stronger from all of this. Every extra American satellite, general, diplomat, spy, plane or aircraft-carrier now focused on the Middle East is an asset unavailable in the Pacific or elsewhere in Asia.”

India is meanwhile negotiating the Trump quicksand patiently but with no expectations. India’s red lines will not be held hostage to the threat of tariffs on trade. India misread Trump from the start. Trump’s 40-year record as a real estate developer in New York was dotted with failures and bankruptcies.

Trump longed to be accepted by the New York social elite. He never was. This generated in him resentment against two disparate demographics. One, American Blacks. Trump’s real estate firms openly discriminated against African-Americans, according to publicly available court records. His politics is deeply impacted by his lifelong racial and social prejudices. His anti-immigration agenda is directed at people of colour. In contrast, Trump has invited white South Africans from the Apartheid era to migrate to the US.

The other demographic Trump despises is Ivy League college-educated progressives who have rejected him electorally and personally. The MAGA and America First movements appeal to the half of America that resents being left out of the country’s prosperity. Most are poorly educated, racist and crave for a return to the values that “made America great”.

What were those values? The MAGA fringe believes in an isolationist foreign policy. It doesn’t want the US to be dragged into the Russia-Ukraine war or the conflict in the Middle East. It longs for an era in the 1950s when African-Americans knew their place, segregation was common in the South (where Trump’s principal support lies), and Mexican and other immigrants were kept out.

Vice President JD Vance was picked by Trump last year as his running mate precisely because he comes from this demographic. The large slice of middle America is reflexively racist. It also has strong evangelical Christian roots that makes it suspicious of other faiths, especially Islam, but also Hinduism.

Early Indian supporters of Trump saw only his anti-Islamic policies such as banning travel from Muslim countries. But Trump’s prejudices melt in front of money. If there’s a deal to be made, Trump’s transactional side will emerge. His crypto deals in Pakistan and rare minerals agreement with Ukraine are examples of how the colour of money is the colour that matters most to Trump.

India must learn to navigate the remainder of the Trump presidency with a mix of business-like firmness and tactical nous. Pakistan has been America’s geostrategic poodle for more than 50 years. Islamabad’s corrupt, whisky-swilling generals know how to treat the US establishment.

ISI and CIA worked closely together during and after the Cold War. Those ties remain strong. Trump’s administration is carrying on the old American tradition of befriending India by day and Pakistan by night. But even Trump knows India is not the India of 25 years ago when President Bill Clinton imposed sweeping sanctions on New Delhi following the Pokhran nuclear tests.

In 2027, India will still be poor but also the world’s third largest economy. Only America and China will have larger economies. At current growth rates, the gap could close faster than Trump’s deal-making mind fully grasps.

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