Donald Trump 2.0 for India: Too Early to Tell

The second coming of Donald Trump as the President has no precedent in history, not only of the United States, but of any country in the world. Even his transformation from a successful business leader to the Republican candidate for President in 2016 was nothing short of a miracle. His chances of victory against Hillary Clinton was considered just about 1 percent, when he was nominated. But he won the election and proceeded to become the most controversial US President.

During his first term, he reversed the policies of many of his predecessors with the slogan “America First.” He declared the United Nations redundant, disowned the Iran Nuclear Agreement, walked out of the Paris Agreement and more. But there appeared to be a method in his madness. The Paris Agreement, it was clear, would not limit the increase in global temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius. The developed countries colluded with China to alter the understanding reached in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 that developed countries should bear common but differentiated responsibility for climate change and undertake mandatory cut in emissions. The Paris Agreement made reduction of emissions voluntary. China, India and Brazil accepted the change because of the pressure on them to have mandatory cuts. The vast majority of developing countries had dismissed the Paris Agreement as a hoax. Similarly, it was evident that the Iran Agreement would halt Iranian nuclear activities only for 15 years. Obama’s commitment to plan for a world without nuclear weapons was also not going anywhere near Global Zero. Trump also did not succeed in normalizing relations with Russia and North Korea. Trump’s rejection of Obama’s policies, therefore, was not game changing. President Biden kept his own pace to run the US and the world as though nothing had happened as a result of Trump’s policies and actions.

The most disgraceful behavior during Trump 1.0 was his rejection of the election results in 2020 and a call for an insurrection. When he left Washington in disgrace, it appeared like a final farewell to Presidency and to national politics. It was believed that he would spend the rest of his life, fighting legal battles or in prison. It was more than a miracle this time that he won with absolute majority and secured both the Houses for the Republicans. In the four years out of office, he had become more aggressive, more nationalistic, more defiant and more unpredictable and irrational, but became a symbol of American hope, affirming that he will make America Great Again.

Trump’s Inaugural speech had no call for unity of the country or for international cooperation. It was Trump all the way and his plans for deportation of illegal migrants, annexation of Greenland and Canada and taking over the Panama Canal were bizarre.  The unkindest cut of all was the legal abolition of transgenders. He withdrew from WHO, the most crucial UN Agency at this time to make it breathe its last. He dictated peace to Israel, Hamas, Putin and Zelensky, without any viable alternative to war. Not even his closest allies were assured of any future and they were included in his list of countries against which he threatened to wage tariff wars.

In these circumstances, it is not only hazardous, but also futile to make any prediction whether Trump will be good for India. Unpredictability is the only attribute we can assign to him and the whole world has to wait with bated breath for the next set of Executive Orders. which will turn the world topsy-turvy again. This time, Elon Musk has joined him as his partner in arms, giving him greater strength and determination.

India can be assured of only one thing. Trump needs India to contain China and as a member of the Quad, India will be counted as an ally in his confrontation with China. It was in this context that the new Secretary of State characterized India as an ally after a meeting with EAM Jaishankar a day after the inauguration of Trump as President. But India’s reluctance to see the Quad as a military alliance may cause some irritation. A visit of PM Modi to Washington very soon is an early indication of a Trump-Modi equation on China. But he has made it clear that in the matter of immigration and trade matters, India may be as much an adversary as China. India has been informed that a large number of Indians will be deported and India has accepted that India would consider accepting them if they were found to be citizens of India. One can imagine long legal wrangles over their status and the circumstances in which they reached the US and how they acquired citizenship. The renowned bromance between Trump and Modi is likely to be put to a severe test as more announcements are made of diverse aspects of India-US relations. Whether Trump would accept India as as an all weather friend is yet to be seen.

Donald Trump’s priorities will be himself, his family, his friends and his country. If India is helpful to him in any way in these pursuits, he will not come in the way of developing a strategic relationship with India. But India’s intertest in reform of the United Nations and multilateralism in general will not find favor with him. As for our neighborhood issues, he may take a benign view as he shares our perspectives on China, Pakistan and Bangladesh. His decision to suspend economic assistance to Bangladesh may have been aimed at removing the suspicion that the US was behind the ouster of Sheikh Hasina.

President Donald Trump’s initial intention seems to be to create “shock and awe” in the world to such an extent that his most drastic decisions in the future will appear benign. The fast-growing technology may disrupt the Master Disrupter any moment. India has reason not to be perturbed by the advent of Trump 2.0. But only time will tell his impact on India. We can wait to see, like the rest of the world, what the endgame will be. Que sera sera! Mao said the same about the French Revolution: “It is too early to tell.”

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