A Calculated Realignment

THE EVOLVING DYNAMICS of Global South relations have gained a new momentum in recent years, particularly in the context of readjustments brought about by the second Trump administration’s policies. The US, under President Donald Trump, has adopted a confrontational stance on trade, not only with adversaries but also with allies, friends, and partners. This shift has caused countries, especially those less tethered to the US by strategic compulsions, to hedge their bets more vigorously. The Global South, broadly comprising nations in Africa, Asia, and South America, has emerged as a critical player in this new realignment mix, seeking greater autonomy and cooperation amidst global uncertainties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits to Argentina and Brazil in South America, along with a few key countries in Africa, culminating in the BRICS summit in Brazil, depict India’s strategic outreach to strengthen ties with South America and reinforce bonds with Global South nations. These visits, set against the backdrop of a polarised global order, highlight India’s nuanced role as a bridge between the East and the West.

The second Trump administration’s trade policies, characterised by threats of tariffs, including a proposed 10 per cent tariff on BRICS members, may have thrown down a new gauntlet amidst global economic uncertainties. Trump’s antagonistic approach has strained relations with allies and partners alike, pushing countries in the Global South to explore alternative frameworks for cooperation. The regional wars in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict further exacerbate global divisions, deepening the North-South divide. As such, the cooperative trends among Global South nations have sharpened, as they seek to band together to counterbalance collective Western dominance and mitigate the risks of economic isolation and supply-chain disruption. With this backdrop, India’s outreach to two very different political dispensations in South America is a story of both balancing and hedging.

Argentina and Brazil, two key South American nations, present contrasting political and economic narratives in their relations with the US. Brazil, under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, leans towards progressive policies and maintains a cautious but cooperative stance with the US. In contrast, Argentina, under President Javier Milei, has adopted a more libertarian and pro-Western approach with new economic measures and has refused to join BRICS, which underscores the regional discord within South America. Despite these differences, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits to both nations reflect India’s ability to engage with politically diverse partners, emphasising the importance of enhanced economic and political engagements with the South American region.

Both Africa and South America now represent key geographies in India’s renewed focus on a Global South strategy. India’s outreach with these regions now plays up cultural and economic connections with a promise for the future. This year’s BRICS summit in Brazil provided a platform to advance these agendas, bringing together leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and new members to discuss economic cooperation, trade, and global governance reforms.

However, an expanded BRICS faces significant challenges. First, the lack of coherence among member states’ objectives is likely to become more pronounced with the inclusion of new members, many of whom have significant trade dependencies on China. This risks transforming BRICS into a China-dominated forum, potentially pitting it against the US in a more confrontational manner. Second, discussions around a potential BRICS currency have heightened tensions, particularly with the US, as they challenge the dominance of the dollar. Such developments could provoke further retaliatory measures, such as additional tariffs, from the Trump administration, exacerbating the North-South divide.

India’s position within BRICS is unique, as it straddles relationships with both the West and the Global South. Unlike some BRICS members, India maintains balanced ties with the US, Europe, and other Western powers while deepening its engagement with developing nations. This duality positions India as a potential bridge in times of fractured global geopolitics. Not surprisingly, India’s emphasis during the BRICS summit was on inclusive multilateralism and governance reforms in global institutions like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization to better represent the interests of the Global South.

India’s ability to navigate these complex relationships was evident in its engagement with Argentina and Brazil. Despite Argentina’s refusal to join BRICS, India’s bilateral discussions with President Javier Milei focused on strengthening economic and strategic ties, demonstrating its pragmatic approach to diplomacy. Similarly, India’s partnership with Brazil under Lula’s government, which has drawn a hefty 50 per cent tariff post the BRICS summit, reflects the new recalibrations that will have to be made at every policy tweak from Washington, not just by target countries but also by the central band of key Global South economies.

While there were some common metrics of regional outreach to Africa and South American countries in diaspora connect, health and agriculture, the latter has particularly emerged as a key geography with a focus on defence and security cooperation as well as space and renewable energy cooperation. Six MoUs were finalised during the visit, covering counter-terrorism, security information exchange, agricultural research, renewable energy, intellectual property rights, and digital cooperation through the India Stack framework.

These agreements underscore the comprehensive nature of the India-Brazil partnership. India’s engagement with Argentina, despite its divergence from BRICS, highlights its ability to build bridges with nations across the political spectrum. Discussions with President Milei focused on expanding trade, investment, and technological cooperation. While Argentina’s pro-Western stance under Milei contrasts with Brazil’s approach, India made sure to strike a diplomatic balance on shared interests, including renewable energy, agriculture, and digital innovation.

Modi’s visits to Argentina and Brazil, culminating in the BRICS summit, also saw a chorus of their condemnation of the Pahalgam terror attack. In an era of global uncertainties, prolonged wars, policy stability, and in particular, market unpredictability may be the guiding forces compelling a new southern connect, particularly galvanised by US trade policies and regional conflicts, India’s role as a bridge between the East and the West is more critical than ever. However, this balancing also comes with its own challenges. By deepening ties with South American nations and leveraging platforms like BRICS, India is positioning itself as a credible voice in the Global South, advocating for a more equitable and inclusive global order, especially on issues such as global governance, climate change and reform of multilateral institutions.

India’s relationship with the South American region has mostly been viewed from the perspective of geographical distance as a deterrent. What the latest visit highlighted is that the perceptive burden of the ‘tyranny of geography’ may have dissipated, and a new era in India’s Global South outreach, via Africa and South America, awaits its economic, political and security rejuvenation.

BRICS summitgeopoliticsGlobal South OutreachMiddle EastNarendra ModiRio de Janeiro