Carney’s Comeback in Canada

Donald Trump talks too much. Had he said less, his fanboy Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives would have had a cakewalk in the Canadian elections. A mismanaged economy and a decade of misprioritisation from Justin Trudeau had set Poilievre well on course to becoming prime minister long before the Liberal Party forced Trudeau to resign in January.

But then Trump began taunting the Canadians. And he couldn’t stop. There was no country as well integrated with the US as its northern neighbour. There is no country more determined to keep its identity and existence separate from that of the US today. Against the looming threat of trade and tariff war—and starving the Canadian economy to death—Trump kept harping on making Canada the 51^st state of the United States, something that wasn’t altogether unpopular in theory in a place like British Columbia perhaps but became a rallying cry for the two unequal but dominant halves of the country—the Francophone Québécois and the Anglophone rest.

The Liberal Party may not secure a majority—they had 167 seats against the Conservatives 145 at the time of writing, with 172 being the majority mark—but is set to govern nevertheless in a turnaround unthinkable even a few weeks ago. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada during the global recession and that of the Bank of England during Brexit, will continue as prime minister as well as deservedly take the credit for pulling off a miracle.

Well, Trump, as noted, deserves equal credit. He had compromised Poilievre and the Conservatives, who would have been his natural allies. Poilievre had started the campaign as an admirer of Trump after his November 2024 election victory and could not reinvent himself and his party on time as Canadians got increasingly angry at Trump and his America.

A political novice, Carney had begun by tackling US President Donald Trump head-on: “Americans should make no mistake. In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.” After winning the election, he said: “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us—that will never ever happen.”

Poilievre was left to console his base, saying that his party “didn’t quite get over the finish line” and that “hard lessons were learned”. Even if one could take Poilievre at face value and believe he has learnt his lessons, the question is: What has Donald Trump learnt?

India will have to work twice as hard with a Liberal government continuing in office given how Trudeau had let his vote-bank politics—pandering to his pro-Khalistani constituents and allies—and personal predilections distort and damage an important bilateral relationship. The bonhomie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper seems a long time ago. However, Carney is reputed to be a pragmatist and he might see reason to abandon Trudeau’s line on India. He took his time to respond to the Pahalgam attack. Canada had been the only major Western country with no comment for more than a day after terrorists killed 26 tourists (later 28). But eventually he expressed his horror at the brutality of the attack.

A development that Delhi certainly cannot complain about is the decimation of the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the resignation of its pro-Khalistani leader Jagmeet Singh.

After the dust settles and the euphoria dissipates and Carney engages with Trump as he must, Delhi will work out the contours of the current status of its relations with Ottawa, by which time there will be a clearer reading of the new Canadian prime minister and his intentions. Right now, India holds the cards. It can take its time.

CanadaDonald TrumpJagmeet SinghLiberal PartyMark CarneyNew Democratic Party (NDP)News BriefWeb Exclusive