Defusing the Demographic Bomb

ASSAM HAS FOR long been subjected to negative demographic changes that go back at least a century but have accelerated in recent decades. While the state’s problems, stemming largely from illegal immigration from Bangladesh, and before that migration from East Pakistan, were well-known for long, no conclusive legislative and administrative action was taken to solve them. That is changing now. In the last one month the state government has introduced Bills in the Assembly that will mitigate these negative trends and is also undertaking strong administrative action to check the fallout of the massive influx of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.

Two important Bills, the Assam Compulsory Registration of Muslim Marriages and Divorces Bill, 2024 and the Assam Land and Revenue Regulation (Second Amendment), Bill, 2024 were introduced in the Assembly last month. This is apart from the Assam Repealing Bill, 2024 that seeks to repeal the Assam Moslem Marriages and Divorces Registration Act, 1935. The Bills were passed in late August.

The first two Bills are important in checking unwanted demographic change and its major consequence: alienation of land from Assam’s indigenous communities into the hands of illegal immigrants.

The 1935 legislation was enacted by the colonial authorities who did not take steps to prevent underage marriages. Checking polygamy did not even figure in their list of priorities. The new legislation, when it becomes law, will outlaw underage marriages. Under Section 9(2) of the Bill, the marriage registrar is empowered to enquire if the marriage involves a minor. In that case, they are legally bound to report the facts of the case to Child Marriage Prohibition Officers appointed under the Prohibition of Child Mar­riage Act, 2006 for further action and prosecution under that Act.

What enabled the widespread abuse of the 1935 Act was its Section 3 that allowed local government authorities to grant licences to a Muslim to act as registrar within a specified area. This, in effect, ensured that secular—administrative and judicial authorities—had no role to play in the registration and divorce of Muslim marriages. This situation has continued to exist for 77 years in an avowedly secular country.

While moving the Bill in the Assembly, the Revenue and Disaster Management Minister, Jogen Mohan, said that the colonial law was hardly monitored and that there was scope for its misuse, a fact pointed out by many people over many years to no avail, until now.

That is being changed. Under Section 15 of the Bill, the state’s Registrar General of Registration will have the power to super­intend the Marriage and Divorce Registrar. Section 16 of the Bill makes it mandatory for the Marriage and Divorce Registrar to send quarterly returns to the Registrar General of Marriages.

It goes without saying that the Bill outlaws polygamy, a practice that went unchecked as long as the power of registering these marriages remained in the hands of religious appointees. All these goals are listed in the Statement of Objects and Reasons that accompanies the Bill. Later, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma told reporters, “The new law will not impact the conduct of Mus­lim marriages and divorces. It will only entail the registration of marriages and divorces by government officials instead of religious functionaries and will also help in checking marriage of minors.”

Another key piece of legislation introduced in the Assembly is the Assam Land and Revenue Regulation (Second Amendment), Bill 2024. The Bill adds a new chapter, Chapter XII, to the original regulation that dates back to 1886. The new chapter empowers the state government to declare a zone of five kilometres around “iconic heritage institutions” as protected areas. The Bill also defines “iconic heritage institutions” as those institutions, build­ings, or structures having archaeological or historical or aesthetic or cultural significance which are reflective of the socio-cultural and religious ethos of the state and are at least 250 years old. More importantly, the Bill empowers district administrations across the state to eject unauthorised occupants from lands surround­ing such institutions. It also bans the transfer of such lands in any manner, such as by lease, exchange, agreement, transfer, or settlement.

This Bill has a history and context to it. Over the years, lands belonging to sattras—Hindu monastic institutions—had been encroached upon extensively. The problem was known for many decades but no ac­tion was taken. Until recently, the extent of these en­croachments was also not fully known. In 2021, after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government led by Sarma came to power, it appointed a panel to look into the issue. The three-member panel, led by Prodip Hazarika, presented an interim report in December 2022. The interim report showed that 1,898 hectares of monastic lands of 303 sattras across the state had been encroached upon. The district-level pattern of encroachment mirrors the pattern of illegal immigration in the state. The report showed that most encroachments had taken place in Barpeta district, an “imperilled” district in Lower Assam where illegal immigration has wreaked havoc on the district’s demographic composition. Barpeta is home to the Barpeta sattras, a key Vaishnavite institu­tion that dates to 1,583 CE. This sattras has seen extensive encroachments to its landholdings by illegal immi­grants from Bangladesh over the decades.

After Barpeta, Lakhimpur and Nagaon districts have seen major encroachments according to the interim report. The same story is repeated in Bongaigaon and Dhubri districts. Most of these districts are in Lower Assam that has borne the brunt of illegal immigration from Bangladesh. One of the most iconic institutions to face this sad fate is the Bordowa than, a key religious insti­tution in the state associated with Srimanta Sankardeva, in Nagaon district. Since the submission of the interim report, a number of anti-encroachment drives have taken place in different parts of the state, helping these institutions recover some of their original landholdings. But such is the climate of permissiveness in India that these drives have been described as “majoritarian” exercises, ignoring the original landholding pattern of these institutions and the manner in which these lands were takenawayfraudulently. Alastingsolutionrequiredlegislative steps and not just administrative ones. The Bill seeks to ensure that these encroachments do not reappear.

These legislative measures are being complemented with strong administrative steps as well. On September 7, the state government issued a memorandum detail­ing a series of steps to detect illegal immigrants across the international borders of the state. Importantly, the memorandum says that when suspected individuals are detained their biometrics should be collected. “If such individuals possess Aadhaar cards, PAN cards, Voter IDs, or passports, their numbers should be recorded for future reference.” This is an important issue as there has been rampant abuse of the processes for issuing these documents over time. At a press meeting on the same day, Sarma highlighted these abuses. In Barpeta district—which is Muslim-majority, with the bulk of the population suspected to be of illegal origin—the num­ber of Aadhaar cards issued was nearly 104 per cent of the district’s total population. The chief minister made a mention of the extra 3.74 per cent cards, over and above the district’s total population, being issued. The same problem exists in districts such as Dhubri and Goalpara. In Dhubri this percentage was 103 per cent of the dis­trict’s total population. In Morigaon this is 102 per cent and 101 per cent in Nagaon district.

THE CHIEF MINISTER said that henceforth all new applicants demanding an Aadhaar number will have to link it with their application number from the National Register of Citizens (NRC). He added, “We just want to close the loophole for any new people coming to Assam to claim indigenous status.”

These administrative steps have been supplemented periodi­cally with anti-encroachment drives, steps that attract criticism for being allegedly “majoritarian” and often handicap the state government. But over time, especially as the political situation in India’s neighbourhood deteriorates further, there may be no option but to undertake these “de-risking” steps.

It is worth recalling that the NRC process in Assam was vitiated due to incompetence and collusion as millions of illegal immigrants were added to the final count of citizens even as a very large number was excluded. Even with these severe limitations, the Bills and the administrative steps are a step forward in Assam’s fight to retain its identity and dignity.

Assam’s problems of demographic changes are complex and involve multiple dimensions. In Lower Assam, the population of Muslims of Bengali origin, in contradistinction to Muslims of eth­nic Assamese origin, has grown manifold to the point that most of these districts are now unrecognisable when compared to their original condition or even what prevailed there just two decades ago. This dangerous völkerwanderung of an alien population can now be seen across the entire stretch of the Brahmaputra Valley all the way to the Upper Assam districts of Lakhimpur and Majuli if not farther up. Along with this massive demographic shift has come an extensive change in the ownership of land, probably the most contested commodity in the demographically imperilled state. The political ramifications of these changes have been felt by Assamese society for more than a century now. But precious little was done until very recently. The Bills are a solution that should have been carried out many decades ago. But Assam is not just hostage to its own narrow politics but also the wider politics and ideological imperialism of secularism imposed by a remote but powerful elite in New Delhi. All that will change for the better hopefully.

These steps, however limited, should be seen in another context: the growing turmoil in the northeastern part of India due to external events. The entire southern periphery of Assam is in flux. Towards its south-east, Manipur is in a very difficult security situation. To its south-west, Bangladesh is now in the grip of an Islamist matanza. The danger that this radicalised population, in an economically emaciated country, will move north into Assam is very real and should not be ignored. As it is, the border districts of Assam—Dhubri and South Salmara- Mankachar in the south-west and Karimganj in the south-east— have an overwhelming number of illegally settled immigrants from Bangladesh. The situation calls for vigilance and adminis­trative actions to ensure that illegal migrants do not cause more havoc than they already have.

AssamBangladesh borderDemographic imbalanceHimanta Biswa SarmaLakhimpurMajulipoliticsvölkerwanderung