The Next Moves in Manipur

Twenty one months after the eruption of ethnic violence in Manipur, the state’s chief minister N Biren Singh resigned on Sunday. The Opposition had for long demanded that Singh quit and had gone so far as to blame him for the origin of the violence.

Will Singh’s resignation help restore normalcy in the state or will that lead to a further escalation of demands on the part of Kuki groups? Singh’s departure came after he allegedly found himself in a corner. His party, the BJP, too, was said to be in “trouble” due to internal bickering over his continuation as chief minister. Singh was facing an enquiry in the Supreme Court over his alleged role in fomenting ethnic violence. There were other claims for his departure as well.

In any conflict, especially the one like Manipur, it is important to understand who is making the claims and apportioning blame in a complex political situation. After Singh’s departure, in the past two days, Kuki intellectuals have “analysed” the causes for his departure and have sought to pin the blame on him for the violence and the conditions leading to the violence of May, 2023. In these “analyses” there is no mention of the glut of narcotics and poppy cultivation in many districts of the state. The role of illegal migration into Manipur and insecurities of the people living in Imphal Valley are wholly discounted in such claims.

There is, of course, the other side to the story as well, the one about Kuki issues. The answers to these are claimed to lie in a “separate administration” for Kuki dominated areas. This maximalist demand is sought to be projected as a “solution” to Manipur’s problems. It is interesting to note that in his resignation letter to the Governor of the state, Singh requested the Governor, among other things, to “maintain the territorial integrity of Manipur which has a rich and diverse civilizational history over thousands of years.”

His departure allows the Centre to re-start the process to restore normalcy in the state. One trigger for the violence, the judgment of the state High Court on reservation for Meitei people, has already been rolled back. Singh, who was allegedly a “roadblock” for establishing peace, too, has left the stage. These are sufficient political signals for all parties in the state to get back to the negotiating table. Further territorial division of Manipur, it goes without saying, is bound to be counter-productive.

At the same time, the Centre must ensure that terrorist groups, fuelled by money from narcotics and illicit flow of weapons, are not given any chance to exploit the situation. They must lay down their arms or are given a response that is usually meted out to such groups elsewhere in India.

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