Modi’s Message in Ukraine

WHEN PRIME MINISTER Narendra Modi visited Moscow early in July, his delegation noticed signs of normalcy in the city. The Russian capital did not look under siege, paying the wages of international isolation in the wake of its unpopular invasion of Ukraine. The Russian economy has weathered sanctions and angry political tirades and even if it might have done without linkages with Western financial systems being snapped or frozen, it isn’t sinking. Modi’s visit drove home the point, grudgingly acknowledged by Western commentators, that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is not as isolated as the West might hope. It was a sign of times that despite the unease in Washington over Modi’s assignment in Moscow, India, and the US have since remained focused on commonalities that both nations agree are at the core of a growing bilateral relationship.

This is a recognition that India will not give up on its historical relations with Russia or ignore the practical benefits of purchasing oil that helps contain domestic energy prices and inflation in addition to the need to counterbalance China. The visit to Russia was never a zero-sum game. Interestingly enough, Malaysian Prime Minis­ter Anwar Ibrahim summed it up when he was in Delhi this week and praised India’s “astute and adept compartmentalisation of priorities and challenges” and its “multi-aligned approach” in deal­ing with foreign policy goals. An­war noted other countries could learn a trick or two on how to not allow any one relationship to cast a veto on other relations. His pres­ence in India was itself a lesson in this regard given Malaysia’s outreach to China, which Anwar has described as a “true friend”.

Modi touched down in Poland on August 21, a visit that will also take him to Ukraine and a meet­ing with Volodymyr Zelensky. The visit to Poland, the first by an Indian prime minister in 45 years, marks the increasing importance India has accorded East Europe and the Baltic states, looking to deepen relations with nations whose assistance was crucial in getting 22,000 Indian students out of Ukraine when the war began. Poland has been at the cross­roads of geopolitics, its proud national identity subsumed by German and Russian expansionism for long periods of its history. Since its emergence from behind the Iron Curtain, it has embraced market economics and is currently led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a veteran centre-right politi­cian who has supported reforms and made no bones about his disapproval of the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants against Benjamin Netanyahu, saying there could not be any equivalence between the Israeli prime minister and a terror organisation. Poland has a young population with a strong base of digital skills. Close to 50 per cent of Poles in their 30s and 40s have attended higher education institutions, providing a pool of talented individuals.

India’s mission in Poland is to explore convergences between economic and political goals that might open more access to the European market. Some Indian industries are already exploring partnerships in manufacturing in sectors such as locomotive and power. There are a large number of Indian students who are training in technical and medical institutes in Poland as well. Apart from paying homage to the Jam Saheb memorial dedicated to the memory of Maharaja Digvijay­sinhji Ranjitsinhji Jadeja who, along with the Chhatrapati Maharaj of Kolhapur, sheltered thousands of Polish women and children during World War II, Modi’s visit is intended to forge durable links between Indian and Polish economies and set up a base for cooperation in digital technology, clean energy, and trade. The relationship has not grown to the extent possible and the prime minister’s agenda aims to broaden India’s outreach to Europe which has seen him visit the continent dozens of times for a range of bilateral and regional summits, such as meetings with Nordic nations. The foray into East Europe was overdue.

The visit to Ukraine, almost from the moment it became public, has been seen as a ‘balancing act’ in view of Western criticism of Modi’s presence in Moscow. It was also speculated that he might be on a peace mission, playing an intermediary in the complex conflict where he is one of the few world leaders who can speak to both sides. In his previous interactions with Zelensky, the prime minister had agreed to visit Ukraine. The time had to be right and the current moment could be propi­tious since Modi has had the opportunity to gauge Putin’s mind recently. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s remarks that efforts are needed to end the Ukraine war and that it will be fatalistic to do nothing are an acknowledgment that the global uncertainties caused by the conflict are a matter of concern to India. Will this result in an effort to push for negotiations? India can certainly underline the need to halt the conflict rather than suggest specific solutions.

The visit to Ukraine underlines India’s concern for the humanitarian situation and the violation of Kyiv’s sov­ereignty. Though India has mostly refrained from voting against Russia at the United Nations, it is not supportive of the invasion of a sovereign state. The Russian military offensive is grinding on and has been taking control of Ukrainian towns and cities, prompting a desperate Ukrainian counterattack. Russia is determined to keep pushing into Ukrainian territory even at the cost of high casualties. In short, there is a distinct probability that one year down the line, the war that began in February 2022, might still be in progress. And going by what can be seen at present, the end may not be in sight even if Ukraine suffers more reverses. What is not so predictable is whether increasing acts of desperation might trigger a fresh and riskier round of international confrontation. Reports of US President Joe Biden ordering American forces to prepare a response to a coordinated nuclear threat from Russia, China, and North Korea are disconcerting.

Any resolution of the Ukraine crisis will involve the US which, along with the EU, is a principal backer of the Zelensky regime, and Moscow is fully capable of directly signalling its readiness to consider negotiations with Washington. Putin will do so once he feels the need to wind down the war. The war is costing everyone, but the Global South is paying the highest price, with supplies and prices of foodgrain and energy rising. The war began when the world was just about stepping out of the shadow of the Covid pandemic and the economies of many Asian, African, and Latin American nations took a body blow plunging millions into poverty. India fared better than most but the Ukraine conflict has created vulnerabilities that affect it as well. The message that an unwinnable war is becoming untenable is bound to be part of Modi’s message in Kyiv.

geopoliticsNarendra ModiPolandRussia-Ukraine conflictUkraine visitVolodymyr ZelenskyWarsaw