A Ceasefire Never Meant To Be

These days even the simplest state of play makes one think twice. What’s always been clear though is that Russian President Vladimir Putin was never serious about the 30-hour Easter ceasefire he had unilaterally declared in Ukraine. And facts have borne that out.

For one, such a sudden announcement from the safe confines of the Kremlin never elaborated on detail, meaning Ukraine would always have a logistical challenge holding its fire, not knowing where precisely it applied. No one needed to wait for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to know Russia would keep firing and Ukraine would have to keep retaliating (“symmetrical” actions) when they did.

Zelensky’s social media post was mere confirmation:
“We are documenting the actual situation on all directions. The Kursk and Belgorod regions — Easter statements by Putin did not extend to this territory. Hostilities continue, and Russian strikes persist. Russian artillery can still be heard in certain directions of the front, regardless of the Russian leader’s promise of silence. Russian drones are in use. In some areas, the situation has become quieter. Our actions are and will be symmetrical.”

Putin has violated practically every ceasefire to date since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. On the Ukrainians’ count that is 25 violations. But even without that number, we know the fate of the Minsk agreement of September 2015. The Christmas and Easter ceasefires till 2019 suffered the same fate. And most recently, Putin’s pledge to not attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure—a promise made to US President Donald Trump—was a lie from the word go.

The important thing is what Trump wants. On the biggest scale, it’s an alliance with Russia against China in a future but not-too-distant confrontation. Yet, even as Putin and the Kremlin cheer every policy reversal by the White House, facts on the ground make Moscow’s abandonment of its all-weather friend very unlikely. Russia would collapse without Chinese money. It even needs men and materiel from North Korea these days. An American offer of a new all-weather partnership—and Trump is too impulsive and temperamental to offer anyone that or stick to it if he did—would be welcome but not enough for Moscow.

But no less would be Trump’s ultimate goal since his administration has given ground to Russia on every count, not even bothering to impose conditions at the start of the negotiations when there was room for American manoeuvre. So, Putin’s unilateral declaration of the Easter non-ceasefire was meant to keep the US at the negotiating table a little longer after Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s threat that Trump’s patience has run out and Washington would move on from trying to broker an end to the war. And special envoy Steve Witkoff has been too willing to buy and sell the Kremlin line in DC.

However, Putin is not offering what Trump wants. Nor does he intend to.

Putin believes he can still win this war. So, as always, he is buying time. These are the things he wants: one, Russia annexes all five Ukrainian territories it occupies (fully or partially): Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson; two, end of US military aid for Kyiv; three, no NATO or UN troops in Ukraine but only Russian soldiers; four, no NATO membership for Ukraine; and five, end of sanctions on Russia.

Since the Trump administration has behaved as Putin’s ally all along, the negotiating points have always been loaded against Kyiv. The so-called minerals deal in the works will be a dead letter if Trump carries out his threat and walks out of the negotiations. Again, that deal would mean nothing without US security guarantees for Ukraine. Otherwise, the deal will remain on paper while Russia plunders Ukraine of the same minerals and other resources—most importantly, human resources.

Russia has been, on the face of it, stealing Ukraine’s children as it faces a demographic decline that has put its birth rate at a 25-year low according to its own federal statistics. Kyiv says almost 20,000 children have been “abducted” by Russian soldiers, presumably under orders. These are only the ones identified so far. Meanwhile, Russia says “about 730,000 children have arrived in the Russian Federation since the beginning of the conflict”.

Maybe, 20 years hence, this will be seen as more than a mere byproduct of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Maybe this was always an important part of the plan. Provided, of course, records survive and so does a rump Ukraine.

Donald TrumpgeopliticsRussia-China nexusRussia-Ukraine conflictSteve WitkoffVladimir PutinVolodymyr ZelenskyWeb Exclusive