The Trump Campaign Coda

Stand Up and Fight

Trump is a convicted felon who will be president again, only the second to win a non-consecutive second term after Grover Cleveland in the 19th century. Star power ballasted him against political gravity. He campaigned with indefatigable energy at 78. Not even January 6, 2021 brought him down. He was tireless and immune to legal jeopardy. Another candidate might have invoked Nietzsche and said what didn’t destroy them made them stronger, but not Trump. That’s never been his style. He preferred Hannibal Lecter, windmills, whales or even electrocuted sharks. These were comic asides, not signs of a meltdown. Voters found him funny. Then there was the iconic image of Trump shouting “Fight!” with his clenched fist and his bloodied ear after the assassin’s bullet grazed it in Butler, Pennsylvania. That “badass” moment was real-life unlike Rambo’s. Clint Eastwood couldn’t have squinted better.

Remember, It’s the Economy

The economy is one of the two biggest instances of the disconnect of the Democratic elite with the American masses. While in 2020, views on the economy were split 50-50, in 2024 almost 67 per cent of voters felt the economy was in poor shape. Half of them said they were worse off than in 2020. Memories of better times under Trump 1.0 and seeming Democratic indifference to inflation helped Trump, providing the undertone to his campaign the mainstream media had consistently downplayed. Almost all the demographic groups he polled complained about the state of the economy and the majority believed he would set things right.

Keep It Simple

In an America fed-up with wokeism and its behavioural codes, Trump could just turn up in Milwaukee (where the Republican National Convention was held) and call it a “horrible city”. Residents saw it as a statement of fact. Which entitled New Yorker last found himself at home with farmers? There was hatred and fear-mongering but Trump understood their power. He entertained. He also held out hope. The crowd laughed at his words, and then voted for him—not for the bad jokes but the promise of action. Trump is the ultimate culture warrior who underscored things that mattered to most. He also showed that the virtue of door-to-door canvassing à la Harris has expired. A groundswell of enthusiasm makes it redundant. Better show up at a McDonald’s.

Bond With the Bros

In the most gender-divided election in US history, Harris’ strike rate among women (a 10 per cent swing) was poorer than Hillary Clinton’s (13 per cent) and Joe Biden’s (15 per cent). Trump pulled an extra 10 per cent men towards him but that was lower than 2016. Much was made of “bro whispering” with Elon Musk on stage, or the podcast with Joe Rogan, and commentary still highlights the “vulgar masculinity”. But Trump just preserved his edge among men, especially non-college-educated ones, while winning over men of colour.

Ignore the Experts

The second woman presidential nominee in eight years has again been beaten by the same man. But unlike 2016, 2024 is not an accident. There is little surprise in the electoral map. Harris won in big cities and suburbs but still underperformed Biden. But Trump’s support was not overcorrected for 2020 as pollsters had feared. It was still underestimated. And he overperformed in rural America with a 27 per cent swing. His emphatic win coupled with Republicans wresting back the Senate and likely keeping the House is an American realignment. It wouldn’t be so but for Trump winning the popular vote, the first Republican since
George W Bush in 2004 to do so.

Take Immigration Seriously

DC Democrats were blind to the point of callousness about how aggrieved ordinary Americans were about illegal immigration. Harris had to admit she would keep Trump’s wall on the southern border after having called it stupid. While the media latched onto fantastic lies about Haitian immigrants eating pets, the fact remained that southern whites as well as many Hispanic Americans were increasingly exasperated with the Biden administration’s policy on illegal immigration. Democratic sanctuary cities became symptomatic of what was wrong with America. Trump took the immigration issue beyond the MAGA faithful.

Build the Biggest Coalition

Trump built the most diverse Republican social coalition in two decades despite its often unmasked racism, epitomised by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage”. Exit polls showed almost a fifth of Trump’s voters were non-white, in contrast to only 13 per cent in 2016. Latino percentages aren’t clear yet but Trump benefited from their continued shift to the right (about 42-45 per cent). Among black men, his success might be as high as 25 per cent. He also broke new ground with young and first-time voters while losing many above 65. Farmers, football fans, military veterans, suburban homemakers, firemen, crypto junkies, evangelicals, the unemployed, unionised workers, et al saw in Trump a man who “got them”. After that connect, the news about him didn’t matter.

Get What Women Don’t Want

The overturning of Roe vs Wade by Trump-appointed conservative judges in the US Supreme Court had made him uncomfortable. But after hedging in the initial days of the campaign, Trump seemed to double down and ended up with a gift from the Harris campaign which, like the Democratic left, thought what worked in the 2022 mid-terms was still potent. It didn’t, because women are voters, above all. Like all voters they had everyday and extraordinary concerns beyond a single issue which, in any case, had been made twice redundant by advances in contraceptives and the lapse of time. Trump had grasped this fact. In the end, 54 per cent women voters supported Harris but 52 per cent white women voted Trump, as per election night data. Interestingly, some two-thirds of Americans thought abortion should be legal in almost all cases but that didn’t quite translate into votes against Trump.

About The Author

Sudeep Paul

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