Under Heat

SCIENTISTS AT THE Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) face an increasingly vexed problem at the approach of the monsoon. In recent years IMD’s overall forecast for rainfall over the four-month season has proved fairly accurate, but variations in this timeframe have foxed weather radars and scientists. June is always the hottest month for much of India, but the steep drop in rainfall, with the monsoon curve stubbornly hovering over northern and central Maharashtra since June 10, has left northern and eastern India in the clasp of severe heat waves that extract a daily toll of lives and livelihoods. The rain shortfall from Jammu & Kashmir to Telangana and from Gujarat to West Bengal ranges from 10-25 per cent to as high as 50 per cent. No weather model saw such a sharp deficit which IMD describes as an anomaly coming.

The problem lies in changes in cloud forma­tion with the more typical large water-bearing formations often giving way to smaller clusters that are harder for observation and computing facilities to detect and analyse. The usual scans of a 25 sq km radius do not provide the resolu­tion that can pick up the disaggregated patterns causing highly localised rain, often within the same city or district. “It is possible to recall that earlier monsoon was marked by a high frequen­cy of light and moderate rains in many places. A city like Mumbai had many rain days with some days of very heavy rains. This is changing with more frequent heavy rainfall and more low precipitation or no precipitation days,” Earth Sciences Secretary M Ravichandran tells Open.

While torrential rains over just a few days overwhelm drainage and civic services, they inflict serious damage in densely populated urban areas and result in widespread erosion in rural and ecologi­cally fragile areas. It is easy to see that if a shortfall of weeks is made up in a matter of days, the result is prolonged droughts or hot days when the monsoon goes into a shell. The immediate reasons for the spike in temperatures that are exceeding the normal by 3-4 per cent range from increasing urbanisation that does not plan adequately for green spaces to higher temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea to a global trend with Europe and the US also witnessing abnormal heat conditions. Are heat waves a manifestation of climate change? “Long-term trends across the globe point to higher temperatures and more extreme events. There is a higher incidence of floods and heat waves and even cold phenomenon such as polar blasts in the US and Canada,” says Sanjay Gupta, a Goa-based international development expert. The maximum temperatures in many parts of Punjab-Delhi-Haryana-Uttar Pradesh (UP) were in the range of 44-46 degrees with Orai in western UP hitting a high of 46.4 degrees. Temperatures were more than five degrees above normal in several places in UP, many in Haryana and Bihar and, to a lesser extent, in Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh, according to IMD’s June 19 bulletin. It is evident hot spots are dotting much of India and are not confined to regions like eastern Rajasthan that usually scores a seasonal high.

Almost half way down to the Antarctic, in the middle of the vast Indian Ocean in an area called the Mascarene High, are RAMA (Research Moored Array) buoys tethered at depths of 3km in the deep waters that reflect iridescent hues during bright summer days. The buoys were first deployed on a pilot scale by India and Japan and now include partnerships with Indonesia, China, the US and the Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem (BOBLME). In addition to the mid-ocean apparatus, a string of buoys has been placed in a north-south alignment in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea as well. The RAMA moorings collect vital information on temperature, salinity and currents in the Indian Ocean that has a direct bearing on the monsoon. Intense weather conditions like MISO (Monsoon Inter-Seasonal Oscillation)—which causes wet or dry spells—and the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation), which results in anomalous rainfall, interact with temperature and salinity of the ocean. The buoys gather vital information needed to improve modelling and measuring of marine heat waves that impact monsoonal activity. The maps of thermal structures and currents for maritime use are not possible without the buoys, states a World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) report. The incidence of marine heat waves is on the rise. “This has increased from around 20-30 days and is predicted to reach as many as 200-220 days a year (by 2100) according to a study on future projections,” says Ravichandran. The warming of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal is evident with temperatures rising from 0.17 degrees Celsius over a decade to 0.3 degrees Celsius. The heating of the ocean waters retards mixing of upper and cooler lower layers of water and disrupts the progress of the monsoons. The lack of mixing can have an adverse impact on marine life too with implications for the fishing industry. “The long-term trends in ocean warming show that the waters of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are heating faster than other large oceanic bodies,” says Gupta.

Former Earth Sciences secretary and current director of the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru, Shailesh Nayak, says while heat wave conditions may not be uniform each year, the upward trend in temperatures and inci­dence of heat wave conditions cannot be ignored. “The inten­sity of heat conditions is increasing as we have a situation where the difference between night and day temperatures has declined, resulting in greater risk to human health,” he says. There is no proximate weather event that fully explains the heat waves with the withdrawal of the El Niño phenomenon, which retards rain­fall, on course and the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) being neutral. The limits of the currently available instrumentation do not allow for a finer or more forward-looking analysis and MoES is preparing proposals to bring about a quantum jump in observation and the high performing comput­ers at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune and in Noida. At present the computers in Pune have a 7.1 petaflop capac­ity while the one in Noida has a 2.8 petaflop configuration. The min­istry seeks to increase these capacities to 66 petaflops in Pune and 94 petaflops in Noida by 2026-27 and a bigger jump to 400 petaflops and 600 petaflops for the two centres respectively by 2032. The move to step up computing power is intended to ensure India’s weather forecasting and modelling remain well ahead of the curve as the challenge of climate change and associated phenomenon increases in a manner that is not entirely predictable. At present IMD sends up weather balloons to track changes in the atmosphere but due to the more scattered nature of formations like clouds there is a need to cover more quadrants. The calamitous Mumbai rains of 2005 when 944mm of precipitation was recorded on July 26, led to a `900 crore modernisation programme for IMD with the induction of Doppler radars that can pick up a storm formation at short notice and a big increase in the use of automatic weather stations along with more dedicated satellite facilities. MoES is seeking satellites fully dedicated to weather and climate studies to enhance India’s ability to forecast and improve modelling. “Our annual rainfall prediction of 87cm (based on 1971-2000 averages) might hold true. But what about the 20-odd days when we may wit­ness very high rainfall or a prolonged hot spell?” asks Ravichandran.

Higher temperatures lead to increased water holding in the atmosphere. At around 30 degrees Celsius one cubic metre can hold 1 litre of water. This increases as the temperature rises and is related to overall warming, resulting in enhanced possibility of heavy rainfall. The macro physics of climate change is evolving even as nations pour in resources and funds to study its impact. “Our data and modelling leads to a certain projection of how weather conditions will develop,” says Ravichandran. The lack of more information prevents accurate initial condition determi­nation—the variance between the projection and the actual event. The uncertainties introduced by warming and climate change in general require more observation prowess.

The technology and manufacturing is available in India and the need for imports is limited, according to officials. The cost is in any case relative to the wages of neglect, says Nayak. “We need to see the costs of improving our abilities in terms of the costs that extreme weather and gaps in our understanding can impose on national life. We need to plan adaptation strategies on a bigger scale. There is a greed cost if we ignore the impact of climate change,” he says. The heat waves buffeting much of India bring home the message that the effects of warming need not be gradual. Slow changes over time can result in evolution that allows humans and other forms of life to adapt to the change. But the shock of high heat conditions throughout the 24-hour cycle is a severe test for flora and fauna. The spiking power demands that are a result of air-conditioners remaining switched on through day and night are an alarming development. “Air conditioners are being run non-stop and the irony is that while we cool some 1,000 square feet of apartment homes, hot air is being thrown out of every house further adding heat to the atmosphere,” says Gupta.

Is climate change the sole reason for the heat conditions Indian cities are labouring under? “Climate change is one cause. India’s urban development is in a very messy state. Even in cities it can be observed that conditions on the urban periphery are worse. This is often because there is even less vegetation on the outskirts, Delhi being an example,” says Gupta. While around 35 per cent of India is recognised as urbanised, the real extent is larger with the development of semi-urban areas and rural regions seeing the rise of urban features. The high levels of concretisation have led to the heat island phenomenon in Indian cities where a car park, for example, becomes a red zone. Funds for managing cities are limited and corporations are hamstrung by sloth, corruption and capacity constraints in equal measure. It is often the case that elected councillors, who are supposed to be the legislative wing, have limited powers and executive decisions, including policy, are taken by the commissioner and other officials. The devolution of funds is not sufficient and the power to tax and raise revenues is limited. In the case of Delhi, currently in the news over water shortages, a never-ending political tussle between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government and the lieutenant governor has meant there is virtually no plan for the summer or even the monsoon. The AAP government has gone to court over water supplies, demand­ing Haryana release more water but has little accountability for theft and leakages. The AAP policy of providing ‘free’ water and electricity has driven utilities like the Delhi Jal Board (DJB) into debt without adequate capital expenditure to improve infrastruc­ture. In neighbouring Gurugram, the civic model that has placed the development and maintenance tasks on builders has been a non-starter over the years. Builders and developers have limited interest in resolving issues beyond a few years and efforts to replace them with the municipal corporation are mired in demands that the private firms fulfil pending obligations—a fruitless pursuit.

Some cities like Ahmedabad have trod a different path, preparing a detailed heat action plan, a 26-page document with a checklist on preparations and implementation. The plan includes alerts and communication of heat warnings to officials and media and inspection of medical facilities along with creating capacities by way of hospitals and ambulances. There is a focus on protec­tion of vulnerable sections who work outdoors or others like the elderly. The Ahmedabad model is easily replicable but it is a matter of surprise how few cities have followed suit. There are checklists for public health managers, health centres, media, labour depart­ment and emergency services. Experts like Gupta feel that India’s choices must keep adaptation in mind even when doing what it can to mitigate climate change. The Western stress on mitiga­tion can mean pressure to switch to low-carbon economies and while India is committed to reducing fossil fuels, the shock of sudden shifts will be felt by the weakest sections of the population. It is clear that a 7-8 per cent growth rate is key to ensuring people move out of poverty and this means adap­tation policies require more attention. “The Central and state governments have a role by way of legislation and guidelines but the job has to be done by urban local bodies. Norms for new construction with green standards are a must. The con­cerned corporations must not give permissions to builders unless norms for recycling of water, use of certain building mate­rial or design or use of solar are not adhered to,” says Nayak. On India’s energy mix, he advocates a greater role for nuclear power which the institute he heads has been studying as a non-carbon emitting power source. He points out the decisions of countries like Germany to do away with nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima accident of 2011, which left it at the mercy of Rus­sian oil and gas imports. “There is hypocrisy in such decisions. Germany gets power from France where most of the capacity is nuclear,” he says.

 

Gupta argues that planning for summers or monsoons must be a con­tinuous process, not a knee-jerk reac­tion to an emergent situation where those in authority just hope for the situation to pass. “Everyone is just wait­ing, hoping the monsoon will revive and become widespread in two-three weeks,” he says. Pointing to the need to provide primacy to urban planning, he says cities are centres of growth and innovation and their inhabitants are more productive. “We have to examine how to enhance productivity. If a person has to travel 30-40km by way of a daily commute in high heat, how effective would that be?” he asks. Bringing about a concentration of talent and resources, cities are indeed hubs of innovation and progress but India’s urban development is being smothered by lack of planning and visible encroach­ments of public land as migrants live in sub-human conditions. India’s economic planning requires a larger question to be answered. Is development and growth accounting for the depletion of natural capital which can only worsen the effects of warming? “Are we living off natural capital or ensuring it is not depleted? The conservation of mangroves and forests, the density of forest cover is decreasing, and this is what we need to study,” Gupta says. Conservation and development need to go hand-in-hand as India cannot afford low growth with money in pocket being the best form of adaptation. Adaptation strategies might be showcased by major government programmes, such as housing and water supplies by way of design and materials, providing a lead for other sectors. India has developed signifi­cant capacities in information technology and has a growing digital infrastructure. Innovative use of these strengths as well as optimum utilisation of resources in the government, non-government and private sectors require a preparedness to think out of silos but can reduce the cost of climate change.

climate changeextreme weatherHeat wavehigh temperatureshuman costUnder HeatUrban planningwater crisis